Cermati Invest Weekly Update 27 Mei 2024
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IHSG | -1.30% | 7,222.38 |
| LQ45 | -2.57% | 895.84 |
| IDX30 | -3.01% | 450.75 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -3.01% | 3,448.38 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -3.04% | 7,006.45 |
| USD/IDR | 0.60% | 16,045.00 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 24 Mei 2024
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -3.35% | 2,334.02 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -2.82% | 77.80 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -0.18% | 3,885 |
| Natural Gas | -4.68% | 2.50 |
| Newcastle Coal | 7.17% | 151.65 |
| Nickel | -3.61% | 20,318 |
| Tin | -2.98% | 33,229 |
| Copper | -2.99% | 10,349 |
| Aluminium | 1.99% | 2,664 |
| US Soybeans | 1.75% | 1,249.50 |
| Silver | -2.28% | 30.55 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 24 Mei 2024
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -2.34% | 39,069.59 |
| S&P 500 | 0.03% | 5,304.72 |
| FTSE 100 | -1.22% | 8,317.59 |
| DAX | -0.05% | 18,694.42 |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.45% | 38,614.50 |
| Hang Seng | -4.83% | 18,608.94 |
| Shanghai | -2.07% | 3,088.87 |
| KOSPI | -1.35% | 2,687.82 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 24 Mei 2024
Ulasan Pasar
IHSG & Saham Pekan Ini
Pekan lalu IHSG terkoreksi 1.30% ke posisi 7222.38. All time high IHSG masih di 7454.448 (tertinggi Maret 2024), dengan support masih sekitar 7023.1172 (terendah April 2024). Walaupun IHSG terlihat ringkih, karena hanya beberapa emiten dari daftar teratas kapitalisasi pasar yang menggerakan IHSG naik menuju 7721 tahun 2024 ini, sesungguhnya, investor dapat lebih profit jika tidak melawan trend. Misalkan jika hanya emiten dari group tertentu yang menggerakan indeks, invest di reksa dana yang asset terbesar dari portfolionya berisi saham dari group tersebut, atau investasi langsung di group tersebut secara bertahap. Beli ketika IHSG atau harga sahamnya sudah terkoreksi beberapa hari dan rebound.
Performa indeks konstituen secara year to date saat ini masih belum mengalahkan IHSG. Urutannya sebagai berikut FTSE Indonesia, Prime Bank 10, dan MSCI Indonesia. Paling jatuh adalah indeks LQ45, Bisnis 27, Idx30 dan Sri Kehati.
Dari sisi sektor bisnis, yang terbaik saat ini secara year to date adalah Basic Industry (Industri Dasar), Energi, Kesehatan dan Infrastruktur.
Utamakan energi, karena Industri Dasar (bahan baku) terlihat mulai terkoreksi.
Pergerakan Rupiah
Pekan ini rupiah cenderung menguat dikisaran 15870 — 16180 per 1 dolar Amerika.
Emas
Pekan lalu, sempat mencetak all time high baru di 2450.125 US dollar per troy ounce, kemudian koreksi wajar ke kisaran 2325.465 US dollar per troy ounce. Pekan ini emas bergerak dalam area 2277 (support)—2450 (resistance). Pergerakan akan volatile ketika data NFP diumumkan pada Jumat pertama awal pekan di bulan Juni 2024 nanti. Kemungkinan menuju 2526.913 US dollar dan kemudian 2681.158 US dollar per troy ounce.
Dalam rupiah per gram pekan ini emas bergerak dalam kisaran 1172653 — 1258271.98. Jika breakout, memungkinkan harga emas akan mencapai 1448796 rupiah per gram.
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Sejak kenaikan suku bunga acuan dari bank sentral Indonesia, 2 pekan terakhir ini reksa dana pendapatan tetap mulai membukukan performa yang sangat baik, terbaik jika dibandingkan dengan pekan-pekan sebelumnya, sehingga mulai banyak reksa dana pendapatan tetap yang dapat dilirik.
Bank Indonesia Pertahankan Suku Bunga, Namun Bagaimana dengan Amerika?
Pada pekan lalu, Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan tetap menahan suku bunga acuan menjadi 6.25% dalam Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) BI 21-22 Mei 2024. Selain itu, BI juga masih menahan suku bunga deposit facility sebesar 5.5% dan suku bunga lending facility sebesar 7%. Gubernur BI, Perry Warjiyo mengungkapkan keputusan mempertahankan BI rate sejalan dengan fokus kebijakan moneter yang pro-stabilitas untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah serta langkah pre-emptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali dalam sasaran.
Dari Amerika Serikat (AS), sentimen datang dari risalah bank sentral AS (The Fed). Pejabat bank sentral AS semakin khawatir pada pertemuan terbaru mereka mengenai inflasi, dengan para anggota mengindikasikan bahwa mereka kurang percaya diri untuk melanjutkan penurunan suku bunga. Risalah pertemuan kebijakan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) pada 30 April -1 Mei yang dirilis pada Rabu malam atau Kamis dini hari waktu Indonesia menunjukkan kekhawatiran dari para pengambil kebijakan tentang kapan saatnya untuk melakukan pelonggaran kebijakan moneter di AS. Pertemuan tersebut menyusul serangkaian data yang menunjukkan inflasi masih lebih tinggi dari perkiraan para pejabat The Fed sejak awal tahun ini. Sejauh ini, The Fed masih menargetkan inflasi melandai 2%. Sementara di Asia sendiri, investor tengah menilai inflasi Jepang pada bulan April sebagai petunjuk mengenai langkah kebijakan moneter Bank of Japan (BoJ). Untuk diketahui laju inflasi tahunan (year on year/yoy) Jepang berada di angka 2.5% atau lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspektasi di angka 2.3%. Pada pekan ini, investor di Asia-Pasifik akan memantau beberapa rilis data ekonomi di China, terutama data aktivitas manufaktur yang tergambarkan pada Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) yang akan dirilis pada Jumat pekan ini.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2024
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3168.66 | 0.62% | -0.97% | 3.98% | 2.62% | 4.90% | 7.69% | 216.87% | 22 Apr 2008 | 80.99 B |
| HPAM Flexi Plus | 1803.832 | 0.23% | 5.64% | 14.11% | 3.08% | 11.84% | 11.52% | 80.38% | 2 Mar 2011 | 42.37 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1387.7705 | -0.19% | 0.52% | 4.67% | 2.51% | 6.83% | 37.30% | 38.78% | 25 Sep 2017 | 61.80 B |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3109.87 | -0.23% | 1.55% | 5.17% | 2.12% | 4.97% | 8.33% | 210.99% | 27 Dec 2006 | 21.54 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1744.69 | -0.40% | 0.44% | 2.58% | 1.53% | 8.03% | 18.40% | 74.47% | 28 Dec 2018 | 245.89 B |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1907.153 | -0.49% | -0.79% | 6.27% | 4.13% | 3.56% | 28.87% | 90.72% | 21 Dec 2017 | 28.48 B |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2683.99 | -0.73% | 0.12% | 2.46% | 1.09% | 7.44% | 14.09% | 168.40% | 10 Nov 2006 | 25.94 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 22 Mei 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1289.8984 | 0.55% | 1.37% | 2.91% | 2.14% | 5.11% | 12.21% | 28.99% | 19 Jul 2018 | 66.15 B |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1573.5261 | 0.45% | 1.31% | 2.67% | 2.07% | 5.32% | 15.20% | 57.35% | 30 Sep 2015 | 107.55 B |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1167.77 | 0.44% | 1.25% | 2.56% | 2.05% | 4.68% | 11.07% | 16.78% | 12 Jul 2016 | 264.04 B |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1653.22 | 0.43% | 1.31% | 2.75% | 2.11% | 5.02% | 14.06% | 65.32% | 8 Jun 2015 | 246.29 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1455.8907 | 0.43% | 1.30% | 2.63% | 2.04% | 5.13% | 13.12% | 45.59% | 23 Dec 2016 | 767.70 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1381.2095 | 0.41% | 1.25% | 2.56% | 1.99% | 4.81% | 12.55% | 38.12% | 30 Dec 2016 | 725.18 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 22 Mei 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Principal Total Return Bond Fund | 2553.86 | 2.43% | 0.25% | 0.66% | 0.61% | 0.79% | 5.21% | 155.39% | 21 Aug 2008 | 19.84 B |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1554.1824 | 1.55% | -0.02% | 2.10% | 0.43% | 2.91% | 13.44% | 55.42% | 18 May 2016 | 20.51 B |
| Cipta Bond | 1763.69 | 1.53% | 0.25% | 2.07% | 0.68% | 2.72% | 9.99% | 76.37% | 2 Jan 2019 | 24.73 B |
| Bahana Mes Syariah Fund Kelas G | 1505.39 | 1.48% | 0.56% | 2.06% | 1.02% | 3.27% | 11.91% | 50.54% | 11 Nov 2016 | 249.90 B |
| BRI Brawijaya Abadi Pendapatan Tetap | 1332.1651 | 1.45% | -0.19% | 1.59% | 0.07% | 1.48% | 12.67% | 33.22% | 25 Feb 2019 | 7.73 B |
| Eastspring IDR Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1696.71 | 1.44% | -0.10% | 1.72% | 0.26% | 2.15% | 11.77% | 69.67% | 16 Mar 2015 | 148.10 B |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1454.88 | 1.31% | 1.12% | 2.74% | 1.81% | 3.74% | 11.08% | 45.49% | 17 Apr 2017 | 173.52 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2518.96 | 1.28% | -0.38% | 1.68% | 0.16% | 2.14% | 12.26% | 151.90% | 8 Dec 2011 | 110.46 B |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1601.13 | 1.28% | 0.67% | 2.08% | 1.26% | 3.93% | 13.22% | 60.11% | 16 Aug 2016 | 440.51 B |
| BRI Melati Pendapatan Utama | 1833.2838 | 1.27% | 0.06% | 1.75% | 0.29% | 2% | 10.31% | 83.33% | 27 Sep 2012 | 51.04 B |
| BNI-AM Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1622.92 | 1.13% | -0.25% | 1.64% | 0.03% | 2.31% | 13.50% | 62.29% | 16 Jun 2016 | 14.54 B |
| Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima | 2886.9 | 0.82% | 0.09% | 1.83% | 0.79% | 2.45% | 9.31% | 188.69% | 20 Dec 2006 | 1.30 T |
| HPAM Pendapatan Tetap Prima | 1050.6448 | 0.52% | 0.35% | 0.83% | 1.28% | 1.90% | 2.55% | 5.06% | 29 Oct 2018 | 148.88 B |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4822.0579 | 0.51% | 1.51% | 3.05% | 2.38% | 6.14% | 21.89% | 382.21% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.30 T |
| UOBAM Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 1003.837 | 0.29% | 2.16% | 5.54% | 1.37% | 6.48% | - | 0.38% | 12 Jan 2021 | 91.98 B |
| TRIM Dana Tetap 2 | 3083.07 | 0.22% | 1.03% | 2.22% | 1.70% | 4.59% | 14.52% | 208.31% | 13 May 2008 | 559.32 B |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1137.9497 | 0.04% | 0.83% | 2.01% | 1.52% | 4.20% | 17.80% | 13.79% | 23 May 2019 | 3.07 T |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 22 Mei 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| HPAM Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1863.9899 | 4.54% | 17% | 33.11% | 13.39% | 41.81% | 101.71% | 86.40% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.50 T |
| Eastspring IDX ESG Leaders Plus Kelas A | 999.14 | 4.37% | -2.20% | 9.08% | -2.28% | 3.26% | - | -0.09% | 12 Jan 2022 | 70.56 B |
| HPAM Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2888.1211 | 0.13% | 6.61% | 8.90% | 5.62% | 22% | 26.77% | 188.81% | 2 Nov 2009 | 267.49 B |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 13174.82 | -0.09% | -1.48% | 5.99% | 0.44% | 3.08% | 6.67% | 1217.48% | 27 May 1997 | 60.73 B |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2290.21 | -3.33% | -5.51% | 5.20% | -1.40% | 15.77% | 29.27% | 129.02% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.05 T |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 22 Mei 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Global ESG Sharia Equity USD | 1.1627 | 4.10% | 3.93% | 7.46% | 4.17% | 11.81% | 9.96% | 16.27% | 27 Jan 2021 | 19.33 M |
| Batavia USD Bond Fund | 1.0315 | 0.89% | 0.34% | 0.97% | -0.77% | -0.03% | - | 3.15% | 18 Oct 2022 | 7.33 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.9848 | 4.87% | 4.18% | 5.07% | 3.54% | 3.63% | -27.89% | -1.52% | 28 Oct 2016 | 4.85 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.9506 | 1.41% | 0.55% | 2.17% | -0.50% | 2.49% | -4.87% | -4.94% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.05 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.6317 | 8.57% | 5.20% | 2.25% | 4.34% | -1.75% | -47.04% | -36.83% | 15 Jun 2020 | 5.92 M |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 22 Mei 2024
Surat Utang/Obligasi
| NAMA OBLIGASI | ISIN | MATA UANG | KUPON | TANGGAL JATUH TEMPO | INDIKASI HARGA BELI | INDIKASI HARGA JUAL | INDIKASI YIELD | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR0087 | IDG000015207 | IDR | 6.50% | 15-Feb-31 | 98.83 | 97.83 | 6.72% | BBB |
| PBS005 | IDP000001505 | IDR | 6.75% | 15-Apr-43 | 100.00 | 99.00 | 6.75% | BBB |
| INKP02CCN1 | IDA0001183C1 | IDR | 10.00% | 30-Sep-26 | 101.00 | 100.00 | 9.52% | idA+ |
| LPPI02ACN1 | IDA0001331A0 | IDR | 10.50% | 4-Jul-26 | 101.00 | 100.00 | 9.97% | idA |
| LPPI02BCN1 | IDA0001331B8 | IDR | 11.00% | 4-Jul-28 | 101.70 | 100.70 | 10.49% | idA |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 22 Mei 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 27 May 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:05 AM | JP | BOJ Gov Ueda Speech | |||
| 3:00 PM | DE | Iklim Usaha IFO MAY | 89.4 | 90.3 | 90.5 |
| Tuesday, 28 May 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 11:55 AM | US | Pidato Mester Fed | |||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Harga Grosir (Bulanan) APR | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Harga Grosir (Tahunan) APR | -3.00% | -2.20% | |
| 5:00 PM | GB | Survei Perdagangan Eceran dan Grosir CBI MAY | -44 | -40 | -29 |
| 8:00 PM | US | Harga Rumah S&P/Case-Shiller MoM MAR | 0.90% | 0.80% | |
| 8:00 PM | US | Harga Rumah S&P/Case-Shiller YoY MAR | 7.30% | 7.50% | 7.50% |
| 8:55 PM | US | Pidato Fed Kashkari | |||
| 9:00 PM | US | Indeks keyakinan Konsumen CB MAY | 97.0 | 95.9 | 94.0 |
| 9:30 PM | US | Dallas - Fed - Pabrik - Indeks MAY | -14.5 | -14.0 | |
| Wednesday, 29 May 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:05 AM | US | Fed's Lisa Cook | |||
| 8:30 AM | JP | BOJ Adachi Speech | |||
| 12:00 PM | JP | Keyakinan Konsumen MAY | 38.3 | 38.9 | 39 |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Keyakinan Konsumen GFK JUN | -24.2 | -23.0 | -23.0 |
| 7:00 PM | DE | Tingkat Inflasi YoY Perkiraan Awal MAY | 2.20% | 2.40% | 2.50% |
| 7:00 PM | DE | Tingkat Inflasi Perkiraan Awal MoM MAY | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| Thursday, 30 May 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:45 AM | US | Pidato William Fed | |||
| 3:30 AM | US | Perubahan Stok Minyak Mentah API MAY/24 | 2.48M | ||
| 6:00 AM | US | Pidato Bostik Fed | |||
| 7:30 PM | US | Pertumbuhan Ekonomi QoQ Perkiraan Kedua Q1 | 3.40% | 1.50% | 1.60% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Laba Usaha QoQ Awal Q1 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 4.00% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Pdb Indeks Harga Qoq 2 Est Q1 | 1.70% | 3.10% | 3.00% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Neraca Awal Perdagangan Barang APR | $-91.83B | $-91.8B | $-93.0B |
| 7:30 PM | US | Klaim Pengangguran Awal MAY/25 | 215K | 218K | 218.0K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Inventaris Ritel Ex Autos (Bulanan) Adv APR | -0.20% | 0.00% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Persediaan Grosir (Bulanan) Adv APR | -0.40% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| 9:00 PM | US | Penjualan Rumah dengan Transaksi yang Masih Tertunda MoM APR | 3.40% | -0.60% | -1.00% |
| 9:00 PM | US | Penjualan Rumah dengan Transaksi yang Masih Tertunda YoY APR | 0.10% | 0.50% | |
| 10:00 PM | US | Perubahan Persediaan Minyak Mentah EIA MAY/24 | 1.825M | -2M | |
| 10:00 PM | US | Perubahan Persediaan Bensin EIA MAY/24 | -0.945M | ||
| 11:05 PM | US | Pidato William Fed | |||
| Friday, 31 May 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:00 AM | US | Pidato Fed Logan | |||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Tingkat Pengangguran APR | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.50% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Produksi Industrial Perkiraan Awal MoM APR | 4.40% | 0.90% | 0.70% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Penjualan Eceran YoY APR | 1.20% | 1.90% | 2.00% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PMI Manufaktur NBS MAY | 50.4 | 50.5 | 50.2 |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PMI Non-Manufaktur NBS MAY | 51.2 | 51.5 | 51.2 |
| 12:00 PM | JP | Housing Starts (Tahunan) APR | -12.80% | -0.20% | - |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Penjualan Eceran MoM APR | 1.80% | 0.10% | -0.80% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Penjualan Eceran YoY APR | 0.30% | -1.00% | |
| 3:30 PM | GB | Kredit Konsumen BoE APR | £1.577B | £1.4B | |
| 3:30 PM | GB | Persetujuan Hipotek APR | 61.33K | 62K | 62.5K |
| 3:30 PM | GB | Pinjaman Hipotek APR | £0.26B | £-0.3B | |
| 7:00 PM | IN | Pdb Laju Pertumbuhan (Tahunan) Q1 | 8.40% | 6.70% | 6.70% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Indeks Harga Inti PCE MoM APR | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Penghasilan Perorangan MoM APR | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Belanja Perorangan MoM APR | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Indeks Harga PCE MoM APR | 0.30% | 0.20% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Indeks Harga PCE YoY APR | 2.70% | 2.60% | |
| 8:45 PM | US | Indeks PMI Chicago MAY | 37.9 | 40 | 39 |
| GB | Harga Perumahan Nationwide MoM MAY | -0.40% | 0.10% | 0.20% | |
| GB | Harga Perumahan Nationwide YoY MAY | 0.60% | 1.30% | ||
| Saturday, 01 June 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 5:15 AM | US | Pidato Bostik Fed | |||
| 7:00 AM | KR | Ekspor YoY MAY | 13.80% | ||
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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