Cermati Invest Weekly Update 11 September 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | -0.76% | 6,924.78 |
| IDX LQ45 | -1.51% | 952.38 |
| IDX 30 | -1.44% | 495.26 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -1.67% | 7,509.32 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -1.62% | 3,669.40 |
| USD/IDR | 0.96% | 15,381.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
Market Review
Rilisnya sejumlah data ekonomi dalam negeri menjadi pendorong pergerakan pasar pekan lalu seperti Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) dan nilai cadangan devisa, namun investor asing masih melakukan aksi jual pada pasar keuangan di Indonesia. Tensi dari pasar global kembali memanas antara China & Amerika, dan harga minyak dunia yang kembali cenderung melemah akibat lesunya data ekonomi dari China.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -1.01% | 1,919.15 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 1.96% | 87.23 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -5.20% | 3,830 |
| Natural Gas | -5.32% | 2.62 |
| Newcastle Coal | -0.16% | 156.00 |
| Nickel | -4.96% | 20,040 |
| Tin | -0.90% | 25,573 |
| Copper | -3.17% | 8,231 |
| Aluminium | -2.37% | 2,184 |
| US Soybeans | -0.38% | 1,364.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
Economic Data
Data ekonomi makro yang menjadi perhatian investor adalah mengenai survei Konsumen Bank Indonesia (BI) pada Agustus 2023. Survei BI tersebut mengindikasikan keyakinan konsumen terhadap kondisi ekonomi meningkat dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya. Hal ini tercermin dari Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) Agustus 2023 sebesar 125,2, lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan 123,5 pada Juli 2023.
Sentimen negatif datang dari cadangan devisa (cadev) Indonesia yang dirilis Bank Indonesia (BI) turun dari periode sebelumnya. Pada periode Agustus tercatat cadev Indonesia berada di kisaran US$137,1 miliar. Angka ini sedikit menurun dibandingkan dengan posisi pada akhir Juli 2023 sebesar US$137,7 miliar.
Investor asing sudah melakukan aksi jual/keluar dari pasar keuangan Indonesia di awal September 2023 ini. Data Bank Indonesia yang dirilis pada Jumat (8/9/2023), mencatat investor asing di pasar uang domestik melakukan penjualan Rp7,57 triliun. Penjualan itu terdiri dari jual neto Rp7,06 triliun di pasar Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dan jual neto Rp0,50 triliun di pasar saham. Namun BI juga mencatat sejak awal 2023 hingga 7 September 2023 investor asing melakukan pembelian neto Rp84,74 triliun di pasar SBN.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.75% | 34,576.59 |
| S&P 500 | -1.29% | 4,457.49 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.18% | 7,478.19 |
| DAX | -0.63% | 15,740.30 |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.31% | 32,609.50 |
| Hang Seng | -0.98% | 18,202.07 |
| Shanghai | -0.53% | 3,116.72 |
| KOSPI | -0.63% | 2,547.68 |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
Regional Info
Investor pasar Wall Street masih diwarnai kecemasan terhadap suku bunga yang tinggi dan menunggu pembacaan data inflasi Amerika Serikat yang akan datang. Para investor masih bertaruh pada kemungkinan 93 persen bahwa Bank sentral AS/The Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pada tingkat saat ini setelah pertemuan berikutnya berakhir pada 20 September menurut alat FedWatch dari CME Group.
Salah satu sentimen pemberat pasar dalam pasar global pekan lalu dipengaruhi oleh memburuknya hubungan Amerika Serikat (AS) & China. China memperluas larangan penggunaan produk iPhone kepada pegawai pemerintah. Beijing sudah melarang penggunaan IPhone kepada pegawai pemerintah pusat. Kebijakan pembatasan dari China menimbulkan risiko bagi pasar saham, terutama sektor teknologi.
Harga minyak dunia terpantau bergerak melemah pada Jumat (8/9/2023). Dipicu dua data ekonomi penting China yang memberikan sinyal beragam pada pasar. Data ekspor impor China terbaru yang dirilis hari Kamis pekan lalu menunjukkan penurunan pertumbuhan masing-masing sebesar 8,8% dan 7,3% pada bulan Agustus. Melihat dari memburuknya kemerosotan properti, lemahnya belanja konsumen dan jatuhnya pertumbuhan kredit memicu pesimisme bahwa China berisiko untuk tidak dapat mencapai target pertumbuhan tahunan sebesar 5% karena stimulus Pemerintah yang digelontorkan sejauh ini gagal untuk mendongkrak ekonominya.
Insight 2023 3rd Quarter, 11th week
IHSG, akhir pekan terpuruk ke posisi 6924.78 seteleh sempat mencatat naik ke 7020.97 (posisi tertinggi sementara 2023), pekan ini bergerak di area 6847—7032. IHSG masih berusaha kembali Up Trend, walau saat ini kembali ke zona nyamannya sejak awal tahun 2023 yaitu 6560—6970 (big picture). Tidak akan lama, window dressing Q3 sebentar lagi, cluster 7080-7090 semoga dapat tercapai.
RUPIAH, pekan ini bergerak melemah menuju 15759. Kalaupun ada penguatan, sebatas 15255. Data inflasi Amerika pada pekan ini, akan menentukan arah rupiah dan emas berikutnya.
EMAS, posisi terakhir pekan lalu 1919, pekan ini bergerak di area 1914—1924, data actual inflasi US pekan ini akan menentukan arahnya kemudian, apakah bergerak menuju 1929 atau justru terkoreksi ke 1894. Dalam rupiah logam mulia harganya sekitar 977463 (belum termasuk biaya-biaya).
CERMATI, reksadana Pendapatan Tetap 1Y terbaik, sedangkan Year to Date reksadana Campuran dan Saham masih terbaik. Diantara yang terbaik, indeks SRIKehati masih yang terbaik. Sektor Industri dasar (Basic Industry) dan Energi (Pertambangan) arahnya masih naik.
USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2022
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Usd Kelas A | 0.9208 | -0.10% | -0.33% | 0.64% | 0.21% | -0.56% | - | -7.92% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.11Jt |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific Usd Kelas A | 0.9275 | -3.77% | -4.12% | -5.92% | -3.92% | -6.12% | -24.59% | -7.25% | 28 Oct 2016 | 5.73Jt |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity Usd Kelas A | 0.6285 | -6.14% | -2.87% | -10.07% | -10.25% | -12.23% | -43.90% | -37.15% | 15 Jun 2020 | 8.09Jt |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1767.57 | 2.05% | 6.16% | 7.87% | 11.11% | 1.67% | 52.09% | 76.76% | 28 Dec 2018 | 295M |
| Trim Kombinasi 2 | 2725.91 | 1.98% | 5.92% | 7.12% | 10.12% | 2.24% | 32.95% | 172.59% | 10 Nov 2006 | 24M |
| Trim Syariah Berimbang | 3208.68 | 1.87% | 5.41% | 8.26% | 9.80% | 1.26% | 25.62% | 220.87% | 27 Dec 2006 | 20M |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1851.2469 | 0.41% | 0.26% | 2.69% | 8.03% | 1.03% | 41.88% | 85.12% | 21 Dec 2017 | 29M |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1377.3553 | 0.22% | 5.27% | 8.11% | 8.36% | 5.30% | 51.58% | 37.74% | 25 Sep 2017 | 61M |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1416.38 | 0.16% | 0.87% | 2.91% | 3.22% | 2.90% | 16.31% | 41.64% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10M |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9365.22 | -0.03% | 0.92% | 4.71% | 5.45% | 3.73% | 26.42% | 836.52% | 3 Jun 2002 | 438M |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3157.92 | -0.81% | 4.30% | 1.18% | 3.12% | -5.22% | 35.66% | 215.79% | 22 Apr 2008 | 103M |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1226.5279 | -0.81% | 1.38% | 5.17% | 5.06% | 3.74% | 16.59% | 22.65% | 8 Sep 2016 | 139M |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1404.1711 | 0.41% | 1.19% | 2.32% | 3.09% | 4.23% | 13% | 40.42% | 23 Dec 2016 | 686M |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1513.35 | 0.39% | 1.16% | 2.28% | 3.06% | 4.17% | 13.04% | 51.34% | 10 Sep 2015 | 129M |
| Hpam Ultima Money Market | 1509.8929 | 0.37% | 1.06% | 2.29% | 3.12% | 4.32% | 14.50% | 50.99% | 10 Jun 2015 | 623M |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1334.6873 | 0.36% | 1.08% | 2.14% | 2.89% | 4.11% | 11.54% | 33.47% | 30 Dec 2016 | 378M |
| Trim Kas 2 Kelas A | 1777.7238 | 0.36% | 1.07% | 2.12% | 2.86% | 4.07% | 12.76% | 77.77% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.742T |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1350.198 | 0.34% | 1.07% | 2.11% | 2.74% | 3.43% | 9.39% | 35.02% | 8 Sep 2016 | 41M |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1129.04 | 0.34% | 1.03% | 2.03% | 2.75% | 3.77% | 10.44% | 12.90% | 12 Jul 2016 | 176M |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1582.463 | 0.31% | 1.02% | 2.08% | 2.81% | 4.12% | 12.96% | 58.25% | 12 Jun 2015 | 3.871T |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1592.76 | 0.30% | 0.93% | 2.12% | 2.98% | 4.33% | 13.08% | 59.28% | 8 Jun 2015 | 146M |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1475.4301 | 0.29% | 1.08% | 2.41% | 3.08% | 3.99% | 13.31% | 47.54% | 13 Apr 2018 | 3M |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4633.3682 | 0.50% | 1.66% | 3.56% | 4.90% | 7.03% | 23.29% | 363.34% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.947T |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1144.0118 | 0.42% | 1.42% | 3.10% | 4.34% | 5.98% | 19.50% | 14.40% | 23 May 2019 | 4.891T |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1576.45 | -0.21% | 1.01% | 5.15% | 6.10% | 7.02% | 18.61% | 57.65% | 16 Aug 2016 | 384M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1427.13 | -0.33% | 0.59% | 4.12% | 4.43% | 5.11% | 14.52% | 42.71% | 17 Apr 2017 | 224M |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1525.0999 | -0.34% | 0.31% | 5.07% | 5.24% | 7.83% | 15.07% | 52.51% | 18 May 2016 | 20M |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1053.06 | -0.35% | -0.03% | 4.58% | 4.37% | 7.01% | - | 5.31% | 1 Sep 2022 | 4M |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2485.57 | -0.36% | 0.24% | 4.33% | 5.15% | 8.07% | 14.76% | 148.56% | 8 Dec 2011 | 192M |
| Bahana Mes Syariah Fund Kelas G | 1485.79 | -0.38% | 0.55% | 4.02% | 4.47% | 5.92% | 15.14% | 48.58% | 11 Nov 2016 | 240M |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Nirwasita | 1604.8 | -0.47% | 0.49% | 5.20% | 6.05% | 8.89% | 19.06% | 60.48% | 16 Jun 2016 | 79M |
| Eastspring Idr Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1675.74 | -0.55% | 0.19% | 4.31% | 4.66% | 7.21% | 15.83% | 67.57% | 16 Mar 2015 | 147M |
| Eastspring Investments Idr High Grade Kelas A | 1624.32 | -0.67% | -0.06% | 4.13% | 4.34% | 7.93% | 12.77% | 62.43% | 9 Jan 2013 | 34M |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1094.86 | -0.92% | 0.33% | 4.79% | 4.80% | 7.45% | - | 9.49% | 21 Oct 2020 | 3M |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2629.3543 | 7.17% | 10.63% | 5.77% | 6.32% | -1.56% | 33.01% | 162.94% | 2 Nov 2009 | 680M |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2286.03 | 3.99% | 10.53% | 16.87% | 13.79% | 5.42% | 47.03% | 128.60% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.025T |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 13576.87 | 1.72% | 3.83% | 0.02% | -2.04% | -14.48% | 7.42% | 1257.69% | 27 May 1997 | 74M |
| Trim Syariah Saham | 1964.13 | 1.64% | 5.21% | 6.88% | 8.08% | -1.99% | 22.35% | 96.41% | 27 Dec 2006 | 95M |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1065.1 | 1.32% | 2.93% | 7.79% | 9.49% | 5.18% | - | 6.51% | 15 Dec 2021 | 34M |
| Bahana Primavera 99 Kelas G | 1334.91 | 0.95% | 3.12% | 6.12% | 5.34% | 1.06% | 19.86% | 33.49% | 5 Sep 2014 | 25M |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3273.06 | 0.89% | 1.66% | 5.14% | 6.50% | 1.84% | 34.32% | 227.31% | 19 Oct 2006 | 531M |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 64410.75 | 0.66% | 1.52% | 5.24% | 5.42% | 2.13% | 23.85% | 6341.08% | 16 Dec 1996 | 3.011T |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1181.83 | 0.13% | 1.41% | 7.64% | 7.45% | 6.56% | 28.40% | 18.18% | 17 Oct 2018 | 11M |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4143.16 | -0.04% | 3.04% | 8.35% | 8.12% | 1.48% | 27.77% | 314.32% | 7 Jun 2007 | 333M |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1573.34 | -0.74% | 1.73% | 6.72% | 6.28% | 2.79% | 31.65% | 57.33% | 29 Aug 2012 | 102M |
| Uobam Indeks Bisnis-27 | 1440.4207 | -1.19% | 1.30% | 6.61% | 5.80% | 3.59% | 29.58% | 44.04% | 15 Aug 2012 | 12M |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4360.03 | -1.50% | 3.16% | 9.61% | 12.14% | 3.32% | 51.38% | 336.00% | 18 Apr 2008 | 213M |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1269.35 | -1.50% | -0.90% | 6.93% | 7.42% | 6.13% | - | 26.94% | 3 Nov 2020 | 28M |
| Trim Kapital | 12156.29 | -1.55% | 2.11% | 8.33% | 11.04% | 2.66% | 48.39% | 1115.63% | 19 Mar 1997 | 348M |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18242.33 | -1.86% | 0.79% | 6.83% | 6.29% | 4.42% | 38.78% | 1724.23% | 9 Jul 1999 | 110M |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1170.88 | -1.94% | 0.20% | 11.67% | 11.65% | 5.99% | 32.09% | 17.09% | 8 Jun 2018 | 718M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 3052.88 | -2.47% | 3.56% | 9.49% | 10.31% | 7.75% | 74.08% | 205.29% | 4 Dec 2018 | 73M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2556.77 | -3.50% | 3.27% | 9.93% | 9.54% | 2.88% | 70.80% | 155.68% | 5 Sep 2018 | 26M |
Provided by AIT, last update 8 September 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 11 September 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| CN | New Yuan Loans AUG | CNY345.9B | CNY1200B |
CNY1050.0B
|
|
| Tuesday, 12 September 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 PM | GB | Unemployment Rate JUL | 4.20% | 4.30% | 4.20% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) JUL | 8.20% | 8.20% | 8.00% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Employment Change JUN | -66K | -80.0K | |
| 4:00 PM | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index SEP | -12.3 | -15 | -12 |
| Wednesday, 13 September 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change SEP/08 | -5.521M | ||
| 6:00 AM | JP | Reuters Tankan Index SEP | 12 | 10 | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | GDP MoM JUL | 0.50% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 6:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate SEP/08 | 7.21% | ||
| 7:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM AUG | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate MoM AUG | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate YoY AUG | 3.20% | 3.60% | 3.40% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG | 4.70% | 4.30% | 4.50% |
| 7:30 PM | US | CPI AUG | 305.691 | 306.987 | 306.2 |
| 7:30 PM | US | CPI s.a AUG | 304.348 | 305.6 | |
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change SEP/08 | -2.666M | ||
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change SEP/08 | -6.307M | ||
| Thursday, 14 September 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | Monthly Budget Statement AUG | $-221B | $-225.0B | |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders YoY JUL | -5.80% | -10.70% | -11.00% |
| 7:30 PM | US | PPI MoM AUG | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Retail Sales MoM AUG | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Core PPI MoM AUG | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims SEP/09 | 216K | 226K | 221.0K |
| 9:00 PM | US | Business Inventories MoM JUL | 0% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| Friday, 15 September 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:30 AM | CN | House Price Index YoY AUG | -0.10% | 0.00% | |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Industrial Production YoY AUG | 3.70% | 4.00% | 3.50% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY AUG | 3.40% | 3.30% | 3.20% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM AUG | -0.20% | 0.40% | |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY AUG | -2.80% | -2.50% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Import Prices MoM AUG | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Export Prices MoM AUG | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.80% |
| 7:30 PM | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index SEP | -19 | -10 | -8 |
| 8:15 PM | US | Industrial Production MoM AUG | 1% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 8:15 PM | US | Industrial Production YoY AUG | -0.20% | -0.50% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP | 69.5 | 69.2 | 70 |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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