Cermati Invest Weekly Update 14 Agustus 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 0.40% | 6,879.98 |
| IDX LQ45 | 0.56% | 964.35 |
| IDX 30 | 0.35% | 500.02 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 0.79% | 7,649.87 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 0.84% | 3,734.60 |
| USD/IDR | 1.05% | 15,324 |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
Market Review
Pasar keuangan RI bergerak beragam pekan lalu dimana IHSG menguat sementara nilai rupiah melemah cukup signifikan. Pasar Wall Street bergerak beragam pada perdagangan terakhir pekan lalu di tengah data inflasi AS. Pekan ini akan dipenuhi dengan banyak data dan agenda penting mulai dari neraca dagang RI, nota keuangan, hingga risalah FOMC The Fed.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -1.43% | 1,913.88 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 0.27% | 83.04 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -3.68% | 3,717 |
| Natural Gas | 8.11% | 2.79 |
| Newcastle Coal | -0.73% | 136.00 |
| Nickel | -4.61% | 20,328 |
| Tin | -4.49% | 26,457 |
| Copper | -3.25% | 8,294 |
| Aluminium | -2.49% | 2,177 |
| US Soybeans | -2.03% | 1,306.25 |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
Economic Data
Dari dalam negeri perusahaan-perusahaan penopang IHSG mencatatkan kinerja keuangan yang masih sangat baik. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih 26,7%(yoy) menjadi Rp12,6 triliun, Ini merupakan laba bersih tertinggi perseroan sepanjang masa. Demikian pula emiten PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) juga mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih 24,5% menjadi Rp12,6 triliun (yoy).
Pekan kemarin menjadi periode yang sulit bagi rupiah. Pada Selasa (8/8/2023), mata uang Garuda bahkan mencapai posisi terlemahnya dalam empat bulan terakhir, yaitu Rp15.215/US$. Pelemahan ini dipicu oleh peningkatan inflasi yang signifikan di AS. Pelemahan ini dipicu oleh peningkatan inflasi yang signifikan di AS. Inflasi bulan Juli mencapai 3,2% (year on year/yoy).
Pada pekan ini, pasar keuangan beberapa sentimen penting akan mempengaruhi kinerja pasar. Pada Rabu (16/8/2023), DPR, MPR, dan Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (DPD) akan menggelar event tahunan Sidang Bersama. Dalam kesempatan tersebut, Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) akan menyampaikan Pidato Kenegaraan pada pagi hari dan Pidato Pengantar/Keterangan Pemerintah Atas Rancangan Undang-undang (RUU) Tentang Anggaran dan Pendapatan Belanja Negara (APBN) Tahun Anggaran 2024 dan Nota Keuangan pada siang harinya.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) akan mengumumkan data neraca perdagangan bulan Juli 2023 pada Selasa (15/8/2023). Surplus perdagangan diperkirakan akan mengecil pada Juli sejalan dengan pelemahan ekonomi di mitra dagang utama, seperti China dan Amerika Serikat (AS).
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | 0.61% | 35,281.40 |
| S&P 500 | -0.31% | 4,464.05 |
| FTSE 100 | -0.53% | 7,524.16 |
| DAX | -0.75% | 15,832.17 |
| Nikkei 225 | 0.87% | 32,473.65 |
| Hang Seng | -2.43% | 19,065.50 |
| Shanghai | -3.01% | 3,189.25 |
| KOSPI | -0.44% | 2,591.26 |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
Regional Info
Inflasi Amerika Serikat (AS) berdasarkan consumer price index (CPI) pada bulan lalu mencapai 3,2% (year-on-year/yoy), meningkat dibandingkan 3,0% (yoy) pada Juni lalu. Meskipun demikian, laju inflasi di bawah ekspektasi sebesar 3,3% (yoy). Amerika juga merilis data klaim pengangguran untuk pekan yang berakhir pada 5 Agustus. Jumlah pekerja yang mengajukan klaim pengangguran melonjak hingga mencapai 248 ribu. Jumlah ini lebih tinggi dari perkiraan konsensus di 230 ribu. Lonjakan data klaim pengangguran ini menjadi sinyal jika data tenaga kerja AS sudah mulai mendingin Meski data tenaga kerja cenderung mendingin, tetapi inflasi AS kembali memanas. Kondisi ini membuat pasar pesimis jika kebijakan dari bank sentral AS (Federal Reserve/The Fed) akan segera melunak. Bank sentral AS The Federal Reserve (The Fed) akan mengumumkan risalah rapat FOMC Juli pada Rabu waktu AS atau Kamis dini hari waktu Indonesia (17/8/2023). Risalah ini diharapkan bisa memberi petunjuk lebih kepada pelaku pasar mengenai kebijakan suku bunga The Fed ke depan.
Pada Selasa (15/8/2023), China akan mengumumkan data produksi industri, penjualan ritel, dan angka pengangguran untuk Juli. Ekonomi China tengah dalam sorotan tajam setelah data-data ekonomi mereka menunjukkan pemburukan. Pada Selasa (15/8/2023), Jepang akan mengumumkan proyeksi data pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk kuartal II-2023. Jepang juga akan mengumumkan data perdagangan untuk Juli, Jepang juga akan mengumumkan data inflasi untuk Juli pada Jumat.
Insight 2023 3rd Quarter, 7th week
IHSG, Sideways dalam cluster 6837—6937, pekan lalu melemah (-) 0.19% dan tutup di 6879.98. Hindari saham bila IHSG turun di bawah 6837 dan tidak kembali naik. Menambah posisi saham, apabila IHSG bergerak naik lebih tinggi dari 6937.
RUPIAH, Melemah, kurs tengah BI untuk USD/IDR pada akhir pekan lalu (11 Agustus 2023) berada di posisi 15204. Pelemahan Rupiah terhadap 1 US Dollar masih akan berlangsung sampai 15345, bilamana tidak ada intervensi dari BI, maka tidak menutup kemungkinan Rupiah makin melemah ke posisi 15759, penguatan terbatas 15029. Dengan suku bunga yang tinggi, menguntungkan dengan menabung dalam mata uang USD.
EMAS, Down Trend, pekan lalu ke posisi 1913, melemah (-) 1.43% selama sepekan. Pelemahan masih akan terus berlangsung sampai 1902. Penguatan hanya sementara ke 1920 per t’o.
CERMATI, Indeks Sri-Kehati, FTSE Indonesia & MSCI Indonesia, karena performanya jauh lebih tinggi dari IHSG. Cermati Reksa Dana Campuran dan Reksa Dana Saham.
USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2022
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9382.06 | 0.15% | 3.12% | 5.64% | 3.60% | 27.41% | 25.40% | 838.21% | 3-Jun-02 | 356.45M |
| Principal Balanced Strategic Plus | 1280.44 | 0.32% | 2.93% | 6.31% | 5.05% | 22.33% | 2.61% | 28.04% | 28-May-12 | 8.31M |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1834.49 | -1.21% | -0.11% | 7.05% | 0.14% | 44.87% | 76.65% | 83.45% | 21-Dec-17 | 29.21M |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1233.91 | 0.52% | 3.05% | 5.69% | 4.35% | 17.67% | 17.36% | 23.39% | 8-Sep-16 | 138.73M |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1371.44 | 1.50% | 4.87% | 7.89% | 6.67% | 53.20% | 31.62% | 37.14% | 25-Sep-17 | 60.15M |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3180.36 | 1.75% | 5.71% | 3.86% | -5.39% | 38.32% | 30.89% | 218.04% | 22-Apr-08 | 133.89M |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2654.47 | 0.75% | 6.98% | 7.23% | 1.86% | 28.93% | 8.44% | 165.45% | 10-Nov-06 | 24.26M |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3130.42 | 0.58% | 5.61% | 7.12% | -0.20% | 21.64% | 24.17% | 213.04% | 27-Dec-06 | 20.27M |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1720.79 | 1.20% | 7.32% | 8.17% | 1.06% | 45.91% | - | 72.08% | 28-Dec-18 | 301.5M |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1588.4 | 0.40% | 1.06% | 2.70% | 4.28% | 13.09% | 27.18% | 58.84% | 8-Jun-15 | 175.63M |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1508.08 | 0.39% | 1.14% | 2.70% | 4.02% | 13.07% | 26.71% | 50.81% | 10-Sep-15 | 147.76M |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1504.79 | 0.33% | 1.06% | 2.77% | 4.25% | 14.58% | 29.20% | 50.48% | 10-Jun-15 | 619.95M |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1471.58 | 0.35% | 1.29% | 2.81% | 4.00% | 13.44% | 29.87% | 47.16% | 13-Apr-18 | 2.8M |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1399.05 | 0.39% | 1.17% | 2.72% | 4.10% | 13.06% | 28.26% | 39.90% | 23-Dec-16 | 609.81M |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1578.04 | 0.36% | 1.05% | 2.53% | 4.10% | 13.14% | 27.36% | 57.80% | 12-Jun-15 | 3.6T |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1772 | 0.36% | 1.07% | 2.53% | 4.00% | 12.79% | 24.76% | 77.20% | 8-Apr-08 | 3.47T |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1330.38 | 0.36% | 1.09% | 2.55% | 4.03% | 11.50% | 23.33% | 33.04% | 30-Dec-16 | 353.14M |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Bahana Mes Syariah Fund Kelas G | 1492 | 0.20% | 2.53% | 4.91% | 6.56% | 16.45% | 37.35% | 49.20% | 11-Nov-16 | 240.78M |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Nirwasita | 1612.63 | 0.02% | 1.91% | 6.56% | 9.16% | 20.03% | 45.55% | 61.26% | 16-Jun-16 | 85.5M |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1580.7 | 0.26% | 2.76% | 6.38% | 7.08% | 20.40% | 48.05% | 58.07% | 16-Aug-16 | 398.05M |
| BNI-AM Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1056.56 | 0.06% | 1.13% | 4.71% | - | - | - | 7.49% | 1-Sep-22 | 5.07M |
| Eastspring IDR Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1685.44 | -0.05% | 1.67% | 5.27% | 7.56% | 16.89% | 39.43% | 68.54% | 16-Mar-15 | 153.02M |
| Eastspring Investments IDR High Grade Kelas A | 1635.69 | -0.25% | 1.15% | 5.07% | 7.73% | 14.06% | 34.60% | 63.57% | 9-Jan-13 | 28.05M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1432.55 | 0.30% | 2.51% | 4.82% | 5.55% | 16.25% | 37.39% | 43.25% | 17-Apr-17 | 218.19M |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1530.71 | -0.09% | 1.60% | 5.63% | 7.59% | 16.06% | 38.79% | 53.07% | 18-May-16 | 20.68M |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4612.93 | 0.58% | 1.75% | 4.44% | 7.22% | 23.76% | 39.10% | 361.29% | 13-Jan-05 | 1.78T |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1106.61 | 0.02% | 3.55% | 5.92% | 8.82% | - | - | 10.66% | 21-Oct-20 | 3.47M |
| SAM Sukuk Syariah Sejahtera | 2475.17 | -0.15% | 1.14% | 4.45% | 5.33% | 18.18% | 43.96% | 164.49% | 29-Oct-97 | 55.75M |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2495.7 | 0.02% | 1.37% | 5.57% | 8.18% | 15.35% | 40.21% | 149.57% | 8-Dec-11 | 215.12M |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1139.67 | 0.47% | 1.52% | 3.95% | 6.07% | 19.21% | - | 31.39% | 23-May-19 | 4.61T |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3256.79 | -0.40% | 3.56% | 5.97% | 1.35% | 34.24% | 9.09% | 225.68% | 19-Oct-06 | 575.85M |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1054.25 | 0.58% | 5.19% | 8.37% | 3.16% | - | - | 5.42% | 15-Dec-21 | 23.65M |
| BNI-AM Indeks IDX Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1169.92 | 2.01% | 4.28% | 5.96% | 4.06% | - | - | 16.99% | 27-Jan-22 | 929.68Jt |
| BNI-AM Indeks IDX30 | 891.99 | 0.81% | 3.09% | 6.73% | -4.37% | 19.00% | 2.12% | -8.10% | 28-Dec-17 | 1.68T |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18639.15 | 0.43% | 6.00% | 8.60% | 7.35% | 42.81% | 22.68% | 2623.71% | 9-Jul-99 | 114.54M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 3126.07 | -0.97% | 9.87% | 12.95% | 12.47% | 73.25% | - | 212.61% | 4-Dec-18 | 68.23M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2656.69 | -0.38% | 11.34% | 13.82% | 9.49% | 70.25% | - | 165.67% | 5-Sep-18 | 26.14M |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1185.55 | 0.70% | 3.00% | 7.79% | 8.36% | 31.06% | - | 18.55% | 17-Oct-18 | 11.32M |
| Danareksa Mawar Konsumer 10 Kelas A | 1664.73 | 1.23% | 3.41% | 6.12% | 0.93% | 20.91% | -14.27% | 66.47% | 16-Feb-11 | 300.52M |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1589.79 | 1.90% | 5.36% | 7.40% | 4.50% | 33.61% | 12.05% | 58.98% | 29-Aug-12 | 111.13M |
| Principal Index IDX30 Kelas O | 1367.14 | 0.79% | 3.03% | 6.65% | -4.60% | 14.81% | -2.84% | 36.71% | 7-Dec-12 | 87.81M |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2193.91 | 4.23% | 11.01% | 9.31% | 5.24% | 43.25% | -10.67% | 133.60% | 18-Oct-11 | 1.05T |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4142.89 | 0.80% | 5.80% | 8.11% | 1.02% | 28.85% | 2.11% | 314.29% | 7-Jun-07 | 374.94M |
| Syailendra MSCI Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1199.44 | 1.79% | 5.75% | 14.37% | 10.58% | 38.49% | 15.07% | 19.94% | 8-Jun-18 | 771.65M |
| TRIM Kapital | 12371.22 | 1.77% | 7.41% | 13.01% | 7.33% | 49.49% | 12.05% | 1483.50% | 19-Mar-97 | 331.87M |
| TRIM Kapital Plus | 4439.6 | 2.57% | 8.91% | 14.18% | 8.05% | 56.15% | 19.49% | 343.96% | 18-Apr-08 | 170.47M |
| Trimegah FTSE Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1301.9 | 1.51% | 4.10% | 10.17% | 11.53% | - | - | 30.19% | 3-Nov-20 | 21.23M |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.95 | 0.26% | 0.39% | -1.45% | -7.96% | -22.04% | -15.61% | -4.87% | 28-Oct-16 | 6.21Jt |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.65 | 1.53% | 2.17% | -6.91% | -12.41% | -40.85% | - | -34.81% | 15-Jun-20 | 9.38Jt |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.92 | 0.23% | -0.94% | 0.30% | -1.13% | - | - | -7.84% | 8-Mar-21 | 1.03Jt |
Provided by AIT, last update 11 Agustus 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 14 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Wholesale Prices MoM JUL | -0.20% | -0.30% | |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Wholesale Prices YoY JUL | -2.90% | -2.50% | |
| Tuesday, 15 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q2 | 2.70% | 3.10% | 3.20% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q2 | 0.70% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Industrial Production YoY JUL | 4.40% | 4.40% | 4.70% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Retail Sales YoY JUL | 3.10% | 4.70% | 4.60% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY JUL | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.40% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Unemployment Rate JUN | 4% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) JUN | 6.90% | 7.30% | 7.10% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Employment Change MAY | 102K | 50K | 51.0K |
| 4:00 PM | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index AUG | -14.7 | -14.4 | -15 |
| 7:30 PM | US | Retail Sales MoM JUL | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Export Prices MoM JUL | -0.90% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 9:00 PM | US | NAHB Housing Market Index AUG | 56 | 56 | 56 |
| 9:00 PM | US | Business Inventories MoM JUN | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 10:00 PM | US | Fed Kashkari Speech | |||
| Wednesday, 16 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 3:00 AM | US | Net Long-term TIC Flows JUN | $25.8B | ||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/11 | 4.067M | ||
| 6:00 AM | JP | Reuters Tankan Index AUG | 3 | 5 | |
| 8:30 AM | CN | House Price Index YoY JUL | 0.00% | 0.30% | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 7.90% | 6.80% | 6.90% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Core Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 6.90% | 6.80% | 6.80% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Inflation Rate MoM JUL | 0.10% | -0.50% | -0.30% |
| 6:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate AUG/11 | 7.09% | ||
| 7:30 PM | US | Building Permits Prel JUL | 1.441M | 1.46M | 1.457M |
| 7:30 PM | US | Building Permits MoM Prel JUL | -3.70% | 1.10% | |
| 8:15 PM | US | Industrial Production YoY JUL | -0.40% | -0.70% | |
| 8:15 PM | US | Industrial Production MoM JUL | -0.50% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/11 | -2.661M | ||
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change AUG/11 | 5.851M | ||
| Thursday, 17 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | FOMC Minutes | |||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Balance of Trade JUL | ¥43B | ¥24.6B | ¥26B |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders YoY JUN | -8.70% | -5.50% | -5.30% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders MoM JUN | -7.60% | 3.60% | 3.00% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Exports YoY JUL | 1.50% | -0.80% | 0.30% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index AUG | -13.5 | -10 | -8 |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims AUG/12 | 248K | 240K | 241.0K |
| CN | FDI (YTD) YoY JUL | -2.70% | -5.00% | ||
| Friday, 18 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 3.30% | 3.40% | |
| 6:30 AM | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 3.30% | 3.10% | 3.10% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales MoM JUL | 0.70% | -0.50% | -0.30% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM JUL | 0.80% | -0.70% | -0.50% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales YoY JUL | -1% | -2.10% | -1.90% |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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