Cermati Invest Weekly Update 19 Juni 2024
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IHSG | -2.36% | 6,734.83 |
| LQ45 | -4.35% | 845.50 |
| IDX30 | -5.41% | 417.14 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -4.21% | 3,242.32 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -3.98% | 6,575.22 |
| USD/IDR | 1.83% | 16,486.40 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 1.75% | 2,332.79 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 3.92% | 78.49 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -0.73% | 3,946 |
| Natural Gas | -1.10% | 2.89 |
| Newcastle Coal | -0.34% | 131.00 |
| Nickel | -2.19% | 17,637 |
| Tin | 2.75% | 32,318 |
| Copper | 0.18% | 9,780 |
| Aluminium | -2.21% | 2,521 |
| US Soybeans | -0.08% | 1,178.25 |
| Silver | 0.63% | 29.63 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.54% | 38,589.16 |
| S&P 500 | 1.58% | 5,431.60 |
| FTSE 100 | -1.19% | 8,146.86 |
| DAX | -2.89% | 18,020.49 |
| Nikkei 225 | 0.44% | 38,854.50 |
| Hang Seng | -2.31% | 17,941.78 |
| Shanghai | -0.61% | 3,032.63 |
| KOSPI | 1.31% | 2,758.36 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
Ulasan Pasar
IHSG & Saham Pekan Ini
IHSG, pekan lalu kembali lower low (turun lebih rendah dari support terakhirnya) dan tembus ke bawah 6886.81, menutup Gap November 2023.
Pekan ini IHSG mulai mencapai area support kuat yang selalu sulit di tembus sejak awal 2021, yaitu 6639—6480, dari angka penutupan IHSG pekan lalu, koreksi wise mulai terbatas antara 100—300 points sebagai pijakan market rebound. Siapkan modal investasi kamu bertahap, menjelang window dressing dalam 2 minggu kedepan market sudah OVERSOLD, perlu REBOUND. Kuartal 3, IHSG rebound. Pemicunya adalah saham utama dari IDX30 dengan target kembali masuk top 10 Kapitalisasi Pasar IHSG untuk menuju 7454.448.
SAHAM, pergantian peta penggerak IHSG yang terjadi dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun terakhir, di mana beberapa emiten papan utama yang sudah terkoreksi lebih awal, akan kembali menjadi penggerak utama IHSG.
Bank BRI (BBRI) Maret 2024 masih di 6325, saat ini masih membentuk Lower Low alias selalu tembus ke bawah support sebelumnya. Support BBRI berikutnya menuju 4040, jika turun dengan kecepatan penuh (panic selling), maka pertanda bahwa market akan segera rebound.
Deretan saham yang dapat dicermati pekan ini :
AMMN, ESSA, CMRY, BRIS, BREN, UNVR
Pergerakan Rupiah
Rupiah mencapai resisten 16400, pelemahan ini menuju 16738 tertinggi dalam 4 tahun terakhir. Jika pelemahan melaju terlalu cepat, pemerintah akan segera INTERVENSI, disinilah harga saham mulai berhenti turun, dan mulai rebound.
Emas
Pergerakan emas dunia pekan ini masih di sekitar 2286—2387 US dolar per troy ounce, cenderung naik di awal dengan resistance harga di kisaran 2355 US dolar per troy ounce. Kuartal 3, koreksi harga emas menuju 2200 US dolar per troy ounce dapat terjadi.
All time high emas dunia masih 2450.125 US dolar per troy ounce.
Pekan ini prediksinya harga emas berkisar 1190000—1245000 Rupiah per gram.
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Reksadana saham, sudah oversold, perlu rebound di kuartal 3. Window dressing pekan depan, memungkinkan untuk rebound. Beberapa rekomendasi reksa dana ada di tabel terlampir.
Nilai Tukar Rupiah Kembali Anjlok, Suku Bunga Amerika Kembali Ditahan, Apakah Pasar Investasi Baik-Baik Saja?
Pada perdagangan pekan lalu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) kembali ditutup anjlok pada perdagangan Jumat (14/6/2024), di mana pada pekan lalu IHSG hanya mencetak penguatan sekali saja. Pengaruh sentimen terhadap pasar investasi masih sangat dipengaruhi dari sentimen global.
Sentimen utama datang dari Amerika Serikat di mana data inflasi konsumen (Consumer Price Index/CPI) Amerika Serikat (AS) periode Mei 2024 kembali melandai, pada Kamis kemarin inflasi produsen (Producer Price Index/PPI) AS periode Mei 2024 juga melandai. Tingkat inflasi melandai ke 2.2% secara tahunan pada bulan lalu, dari sebelumnya tumbuh 2,3% pada April 2024. Membaiknya data inflasi Negeri Paman Sam membuat bank sentral Amerika Serikat (Federal Reserve/The Fed) kembali mengindikasikan akan memangkas suku bunga acuannya sekali pada tahun ini. The Fed pada Kamis dini hari waktu Indonesia kembali menahan suku bunga di level 5.25-5.50%. Namun, pemangkasan suku bunga acuan tetap disesuaikan dengan kondisi inflasi AS. Dalam pernyataan resminya, The Fed menegaskan jika komite tidak akan menurunkan target (suku bunga) hingga lebih percaya diri melihat inflasi bergerak ke arah 2% secara berkelanjutan.
Selanjutnya, mata uang Indonesia yaitu Rupiah terus masih dalam tren melemah. Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (15/6/2024), dolar AS bergerak menguat kencang dan sempat menembus level Rp 16.400 per dolar AS. Bank Indonesia (BI) diketahui terus melakukan intervensi untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah dengan melakukan intervensi di pasar spot dan pembelian Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) di pasar sekunder. Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo menilai sejauh ini pergerakan masih dalam level stabil. Sekalipun melemah, masih berada dalam level terjaga termasuk apabila dibandingkan dengan mata uang negara lain.
Mayoritas negara di dunia, menunda banyak agenda, menunggu hasil PilPres Amerika pada Oktober 2024, bahkan pelantikan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden RI rencananya dilaksanakan pada bulan yang sama.
Jadikan Cermati.com sebagai aplikasi investasi keuangan kamu sekarang dan kedepannya.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2024
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1355.40 | -1.64% | -3.58% | 2.24% | 0.12% | 2.57% | 32.86% | 35.54% | 25 Sep 2017 | 61.37 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3101.92 | -1.66% | -2.84% | 2.36% | 0.46% | 1.30% | -2.95% | 210.19% | 22 Apr 2008 | 78.89 B |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1819.94 | -2.50% | -6.35% | 0.21% | -0.63% | -1.69% | 18.51% | 81.99% | 21 Dec 2017 | 29.85 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1579.45 | 0.48% | 1.38% | 2.73% | 2.45% | 5.35% | 15.35% | 57.94% | 30 Sep 2015 | 104.60 B |
| Cipta Dana Kas Syariah | 1207.61 | 0.45% | 1.22% | 2.27% | 2.05% | 3.99% | 9.85% | 20.76% | 28 Jan 2019 | 10.13 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang III | 1705.16 | 0.44% | 1.25% | 2.45% | 2.28% | 4.58% | 11.49% | 70.52% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.15 T |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1523.08 | 0.44% | 1.12% | 2.13% | 1.92% | 4.24% | 13.27% | 52.31% | 13 Apr 2018 | 3.63 B |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1658.73 | 0.43% | 1.30% | 2.77% | 2.45% | 5.05% | 14.07% | 65.87% | 8 Jun 2015 | 238.77 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1460.64 | 0.43% | 1.29% | 2.64% | 2.38% | 5.16% | 13.15% | 46.06% | 23 Dec 2016 | 790.50 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1293.93 | 0.42% | 1.38% | 2.73% | 2.46% | 5.12% | 12.28% | 29.39% | 19 Jul 2018 | 81.02 B |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1842.20 | 0.42% | 1.22% | 2.42% | 2.18% | 4.65% | 12.75% | 84.22% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.34 T |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1385.69 | 0.42% | 1.27% | 2.57% | 2.32% | 4.86% | 12.67% | 38.57% | 30 Dec 2016 | 771.99 B |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1171.36 | 0.40% | 1.25% | 2.60% | 2.36% | 4.73% | 11.19% | 17.14% | 12 Jul 2016 | 289.00 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| UOBAM Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 1019.89 | 1.52% | 3.83% | 2.98% | 2.99% | 8.83% | - | 1.99% | 12 Jan 2021 | 113.89 B |
| TRIM Dana Tetap 2 | 3095.93 | 0.70% | 1.13% | 2.36% | 2.13% | 4.67% | 14.04% | 209.59% | 13 May 2008 | 590.27 B |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1142.49 | 0.65% | -0.08% | 0.13% | 0.91% | 0.16% | 5.23% | 14.25% | 23 May 2019 | 2.85 T |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4842.85 | 0.55% | 1.56% | 3.12% | 2.82% | 6.11% | 21.90% | 384.28% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.33 T |
| Insight Renewable Energy Fund | 2194.79 | 0.54% | 1.57% | 3.24% | 2.91% | 6.16% | 18.23% | 119.48% | 22 Jun 2011 | 364.28 B |
| HPAM Pendapatan Tetap Prima | 1054.87 | 0.53% | 0.35% | 0.80% | 1.68% | 1.76% | 3.28% | 5.49% | 29 Oct 2018 | 148.88 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| BRI Syariah Saham | 713.80 | -3.31% | -3.89% | -1.67% | -3.52% | -13.34% | -19.65% | -28.62% | 18 Sep 2014 | 13.05 B |
| HPAM Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1842.05 | -3.35% | 8.46% | 15.06% | 12.06% | 39.86% | 90.93% | 84.20% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.54 T |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2003.24 | -3.53% | -9.95% | -12.37% | -14.45% | -20.33% | -3.48% | 100.32% | 5 Sep 2018 | 17.34 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Global ESG Sharia Equity USD | 1.14 | -1.80% | -0.45% | 2.60% | 1.96% | 4.41% | 5.52% | 13.81% | 27 Jan 2021 | 18.29 M |
| Batavia USD Bond Fund | 1.03 | 0.60% | 0.44% | -0.28% | -0.50% | 0.99% | - | 3.43% | 18 Oct 2022 | 18.49 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.95 | 0.86% | 0.46% | 0.18% | -0.09% | 3.39% | -4.52% | -4.55% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.16 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.63 | -1.01% | 2.65% | 3.52% | 3.90% | -6.86% | -48.89% | -37.10% | 15 Jun 2020 | 5.69 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 1.01 | 2.61% | 4.40% | 7.83% | 6.02% | 1.73% | -29.02% | 0.84% | 28 Oct 2016 | 3.90 M |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
Surat Utang/Obligasi
| NAMA OBLIGASI | ISIN | MATA UANG | KUPON | TANGGAL JATUH TEMPO | INDIKASI HARGA BELI | INDIKASI HARGA JUAL | INDIKASI YIELD | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR0087 | IDG000015207 | IDR | 6.50% | 15-Feb-31 | 98.90 | 97.90 | 6.70% | BBB |
| FR0097 | IDG000020900 | IDR | 6.88% | 15-Jun-43 | 102.55 | 101.55 | 7.13% | BBB |
| INKP02CCN1 | IDA0001183C1 | IDR | 10.00% | 30-Sep-26 | 101.00 | 100.00 | 9.51% | idA+ |
| LPPI02ACN1 | IDA0001331A0 | IDR | 10.50% | 4-Jul-26 | 101.00 | 100.00 | 9.96% | idA |
| SMINKP03CCN2 | IDJ0000276C5 | IDR | 10.75% | 25-Aug-28 | 101.50 | 100.50 | 10.31% | idA+ |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 14 Juni 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 17 June 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders MoM APR | 2.90% | -3.10% | -0.50% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders YoY APR | 2.70% | -0.10% | -1.50% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | House Price Index YoY MAY | -3.10% | -3.50% | |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Industrial Production YoY MAY | 6.70% | 6.00% | 6.30% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Retail Sales YoY MAY | 2.30% | 3.00% | 2.60% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY MAY | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.10% |
| 9:00 AM | CN | Unemployment Rate MAY | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% |
| 7:30 PM | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index JUN | -15.60 | -13.00 | -10.00 |
| Tuesday, 18 June 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:00 AM | US | Fed Harker Speech | |||
| 8:00 AM | US | Fed Cook Speech | |||
| 4:00 PM | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN | 47.10 | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| 7:30 PM | US | Retail Sales MoM MAY | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM MAY | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 8:15 PM | US | Industrial Production MoM MAY | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 9:00 PM | US | Business Inventories MoM APR | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 9:00 PM | US | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
| 10:40 PM | US | Fed Collins Speech | |||
| Wednesday, 19 June 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:00 AM | US | Fed Kugler Speech | |||
| 12:00 AM | US | Fed Logan Speech | |||
| 12:20 AM | US | Fed Musalem Speech | |||
| 1:00 AM | US | Fed Goolsbee Speech | |||
| 3:00 AM | US | Net Long-term TIC Flows APR | $100.5B | ||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/14 | -2.428M | ||
| 6:00 AM | JP | Reuters Tankan Index JUN | 9.00 | 12.00 | |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Balance of Trade MAY | ¥-462.5B | ¥-1313.7B | ¥-1300B |
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Exports YoY MAY | 8.30% | 13.00% | 12.80% |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Balance of Trade MAY | $3.56B | $1.0B | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Inflation Rate YoY MAY | 2.30% | 2.00% | 1.90% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY | 3.90% | 3.50% | 3.20% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Inflation Rate MoM MAY | 0.30% | 0.20% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | NAHB Housing Market Index JUN | 45.00 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
| Thursday, 20 June 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:15 AM | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% |
| 8:15 AM | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y JUN | 3.95% | 3.95% | 3.95% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | PPI YoY MAY | -3.30% | -3.10% | |
| 2:30 PM | ID | Interest Rate Decision | 6.25% | 6.25% | |
| 6:00 PM | GB | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 6:00 PM | GB | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 2-Sep | ||
| 6:00 PM | GB | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 0/9 | ||
| 6:00 PM | GB | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 7-Sep | ||
| 6:00 PM | GB | MPC Meeting Minutes | |||
| 7:30 PM | US | Building Permits Prel MAY | 1.440M | 1.45M | 1.47M |
| 7:30 PM | US | Building Permits MoM Prel MAY | -3.00% | 2.00% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Current Account Q1 | $-194.8B | $-206B | $ -190B |
| 7:30 PM | US | Housing Starts MAY | 1.36M | 1.38M | 1.38M |
| 7:30 PM | US | Housing Starts MoM MAY | 5.70% | 2.20% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims JUN/15 | 242K | 240K | 239K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index JUN | 4.50 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| 10:00 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JUN/14 | 3.73M | ||
| 10:00 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/14 | 2.566M | ||
| Friday, 21 June 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 3:00 AM | US | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
| 6:01 AM | GB | Gfk Consumer Confidence JUN | -17.00 | -16.00 | -15.00 |
| 6:30 AM | JP | Inflation Rate YoY MAY | 2.50% | 2.50% | |
| 6:30 AM | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY | 2.20% | 2.60% | 2.50% |
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN | 50.40 | 50.60 | 50.50 |
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash JUN | 53.80 | 53.70 | |
| 12:00 PM | IN | HSBC Composite PMI Flash JUN | 60.50 | 60.30 | |
| 12:00 PM | IN | HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN | 57.50 | 57.00 | |
| 12:00 PM | IN | HSBC Services PMI Flash JUN | 60.20 | 56.00 | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales MoM MAY | -2.30% | 1.60% | 1.90% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM MAY | -2.00% | 2.30% | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales YoY MAY | -2.70% | -1.30% | |
| 2:30 PM | DE | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN | 45.40 | 46.40 | 46.80 |
| 2:30 PM | DE | HCOB Composite PMI Flash JUN | 52.40 | 52.00 | |
| 2:30 PM | DE | HCOB Services PMI Flash JUN | 54.20 | 54.40 | 51.90 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUN | 53.00 | 53.50 | |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN | 51.20 | 51.00 | 51.50 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUN | 52.90 | 53.20 | 53.20 |
| 6:30 PM | IN | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUN | 54.50 | 53.40 | |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN | 51.30 | 51.00 | 51.50 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUN | 54.80 | 53.50 | 54.00 |
| 9:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales MAY | 4.14M | 4.10M | 4.12M |
| 9:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales MoM MAY | -1.90% | -0.30% | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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