Cermati Invest Weekly Update 21 Agustus 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | -0.29% | 6,859.91 |
| IDX LQ45 | -0.79% | 956.71 |
| IDX 30 | -0.88% | 495.60 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -0.43% | 7,617.06 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -0.97% | 3,698.56 |
| USD/IDR | 0.74% | 15,323.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
Market Review
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melemah selama pekan lalu di tengah sentimen negatif dari global, terutama dari China. Nilai Rupiah pada pekan ini kembali mencatatkan kinerja yang kurang baik di hadapan dolar Amerika Serikat (AS).
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -1.25% | 1,889.42 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -2.15% | 81.40 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | 4.14% | 3,871 |
| Natural Gas | -7.11% | 2.57 |
| Newcastle Coal | -5.56% | 136.00 |
| Nickel | -0.35% | 20,170 |
| Tin | -4.35% | 25,305 |
| Copper | -0.25% | 8,274 |
| Aluminium | -1.49% | 2,143 |
| US Soybeans | 3.58% | 1,354.25 |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
Economic Data
IHSG terpantau kembali melemah, setelah sempat libur dalam rangka Hari Ulang Tahun Indonesia atau Hari Kemerdekaan Indonesia. Koreksi IHSG sejalan dengan pergerakan bursa saham global yang juga melemah. Selama sepekan kemarin, dana investor asing tercatat keluar dari pasar saham Indonesia dengan nilai jual bersih (net sell) Rp1,91 triliun di pasar reguler. Mata uang Tanah Air yakni rupiah pada pekan ini kembali mencatatkan kinerja yang kurang baik. Hal ini terjadi karena masih kuatnya data tenaga kerja dan kenaikan inflasi di AS, dan kekecewaan pasar akan sikap bank sentral AS (Federal Reserve/The Fed) yang masih akan cenderung mempertahankan suku bunga.
Pelaku pasar akan mencermati sejumlah sentimen dan rilis data ekonomi makro yang akan mempengaruhi pergerakan pasar selama pekan ini, baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri. Pada pekan ini, Bank Indonesia (BI) akan merilis laporan neraca pembayaran triwulan II 2023. Selain itu, akan dirilis pula data transaksi berjalan RI yang diproyeksikan akan mencatatkan surplus US$1,5 miliar, lebih kecil dibandingkan US$3 miliar pada periode sebelumnya.Bank Indonesia (BI) juga akan mengumumkan hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur terkait arah kebijakan suku bunga acuan, diperkirakan BI akan tetap kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 5,75%.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -2.21% | 34,500.66 |
| S&P 500 | -2.11% | 4,369.71 |
| FTSE 100 | -3.48% | 7,262.43 |
| DAX | -1.63% | 15,574.26 |
| Nikkei 225 | -3.11% | 31,462.50 |
| Hang Seng | -6.12% | 17,908.00 |
| Shanghai | -1.80% | 3,131.95 |
| KOSPI | -3.35% | 2,504.50 |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
Regional Info
Dari Amerika Serikat (AS), sentimen kembali memburuk setelah dirilisnya data tenaga kerja AS dan risalah bank sentral AS (Federal Reserve/The Fed) terkait arah kebijakan moneter berikutnya. Jumlah pekerja yang mengajukan klaim pengangguran pada pekan yang berakhir pada 12 Juli 2023 sebanyak 239 ribu atau turun 11.000 dari pekan sebelumnya yakni 250.000. Risalah dari pertemuan The Fed Juli yang dirilis pada Rabu pekan lalu juga menunjukkan sebagian besar pembuat kebijakan memprioritaskan pada penurunan inflasi. Hal ini semakin menjauhkan ekspektasi pasar mengenai pemangkasan suku bunga.
Dari China, ekonomi tengah menghadapi tekanan beruntun, mulai dari lesunya konsumsi masyarakat, inflasi yang rendah atau mengalami deflasi, sektor manufaktur yang melambat, dan krisis yang menimpa beberapa sektor mulai dari properti hingga perbankan.
Raksasa properti China Evergrande resmi mengumumkan kebangkrutan, Kamis waktu New York, Amerika Serikat (AS). Hal ini terjadi setelah perusahaan itu mengalami gagal bayar sebesar US$ 340 miliar atau sebesar Rp 4.400 triliun pada tahun 2021 lalu. Evergrande juga membukukan akumulasi kerugian sebesar US$81 miliar atau Rp1.238 triliun (Kurs: Rp15.280/US$) dalam dua tahun terakhir. Inflasi China juga terbilang rendah, bahkan China sudah mengalami deflasi. Inflasi berdasarkan consumer price index (CPI) China pada bulan lalu mencapai minus 0,3%, (year-on-year/yoy), dari sebelumnya pada Juni lalu di 0%.
Insight 2023 3rd Quarter, 8th week
IHSG, pekan lalu terkoreksi (-) 0.29% ke posisi 6859.91 tetapi masih dalam pola sideways antara 6833 (Support) — 6937 (Resisten). Pekan ini perlu lebih berhati-hati karena ada potensi untuk jatuh lebih dalam ke 6822 dengan tujuan berikutnya 6750.
RUPIAH, pekan lalu menguat (+) 0.74% ke posisi 15323, jika melihat arah IHSG dan emas dunia, sangat mungkin rupiah kembali melemah menuju 15759. Intervensi pemerintah dibutuhkan. Pekan ini penguatan rupiah sebatas 15220 (kurs Tengah).
EMAS, pekan lalu terkoreksi (-) 1.25% ke posisi sekitar 1889. Pekan ini diperkirakan harganya masih akan turun menembus 1864, sedangkan penguatan terbatas 1900.
CERMATI, sementara Reksa Dana Campuran dan Pasar uang. Untuk Reksa Dana Saham, cermati performa 1 bulan sampai YtD (Year to date), mana yang performa terbaik.
USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2022
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.92 | -0.07% | -0.92% | 0.15% | -1.17% | - | - | -7.98% | 8-Mar-21 | 1.03Jt |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.93 | -6.46% | -3.13% | -4.17% | -12.64% | -24.07% | -14.68% | -7.49% | 28-Oct-16 | 6.21Jt |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.63 | -6.96% | -3.26% | -10.03% | -17.36% | -42.99% | - | -37.00% | 15-Jun-20 | 9.38Jt |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3188.41 | 3.02% | 5.81% | 4.12% | -3.75% | 36.00% | 37.52% | 218.84% | 22-Apr-08 | 133.89M |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1731.3 | 2.79% | 8.21% | 8.83% | 2.54% | 48.37% | - | 73.13% | 28-Dec-18 | 301.5M |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3145.94 | 2.60% | 6.80% | 7.66% | 1.32% | 21.81% | 30.62% | 214.59% | 27-Dec-06 | 20.27M |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2671.48 | 2.49% | 7.92% | 7.92% | 3.02% | 27.95% | 15.90% | 167.15% | 10-Nov-06 | 24.26M |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1372.4 | 1.88% | 6.04% | 7.97% | 6.52% | 51.51% | 36.73% | 37.24% | 25-Sep-17 | 60.15M |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9386.43 | 0.40% | 3.61% | 5.69% | 3.66% | 25.55% | 30.58% | 838.64% | 3-Jun-02 | 356.45M |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1831.43 | -0.40% | 0.69% | 6.87% | 1.99% | 41.48% | 84.93% | 83.14% | 21-Dec-17 | 29.21M |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1509.48 | 0.41% | 1.16% | 2.80% | 4.06% | 13.05% | 26.70% | 50.95% | 10-Sep-15 | 147.76M |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1400.34 | 0.40% | 1.18% | 2.81% | 4.13% | 13.04% | 28.26% | 40.03% | 23-Dec-16 | 609.81M |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1506.05 | 0.35% | 1.07% | 2.85% | 4.26% | 14.56% | 29.27% | 50.60% | 10-Jun-15 | 619.95M |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1472.68 | 0.34% | 1.25% | 2.89% | 4.01% | 13.43% | 29.82% | 47.27% | 13-Apr-18 | 2.8M |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1577.9 | -0.08% | 2.32% | 6.20% | 6.81% | 19.35% | 49.35% | 57.79% | 16-Aug-16 | 398.05M |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1105.06 | -0.19% | 3.22% | 5.77% | 8.66% | - | - | 10.51% | 21-Oct-20 | 3.47M |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2483.35 | -0.66% | 0.64% | 5.05% | 7.53% | 14.47% | 41.18% | 148.33% | 8-Dec-11 | 215.12M |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Nirwasita | 1603.97 | -0.77% | 0.99% | 5.99% | 8.50% | 18.87% | 46.37% | 60.40% | 16-Jun-16 | 85.5M |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| HPAM Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2504.96 | 3.66% | 5.69% | 1.29% | -5.50% | 24.76% | 5.57% | 150.50% | 2-Nov-09 | 642.33M |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2173.68 | 3.15% | 10.31% | 8.33% | 4.71% | 40.63% | -4.10% | 131.58% | 18-Oct-11 | 1.05T |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1580.26 | 2.00% | 5.57% | 6.75% | 3.47% | 29.98% | 19.24% | 58.03% | 29-Aug-12 | 111.13M |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1060.01 | 1.54% | 6.72% | 8.96% | 4.07% | - | - | 6.00% | 15-Dec-21 | 23.65M |
| TRIM Kapital Plus | 4388.67 | 1.51% | 8.04% | 12.87% | 7.44% | 51.51% | 25.81% | 338.87% | 18-Apr-08 | 170.47M |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4138.52 | 1.51% | 7.09% | 7.99% | 1.40% | 25.55% | 8.88% | 313.85% | 7-Jun-07 | 374.94M |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 64631.68 | 1.51% | 5.67% | 5.78% | 2.26% | 22.56% | 10.75% | 2453.43% | 16-Dec-96 | 3.67T |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 13366.34 | 1.50% | 5.17% | -3.56% | -12.04% | 4.59% | -9.64% | 1136.70% | 27-May-97 | 76.14M |
| TRIM Kapital | 12243.34 | 0.94% | 6.69% | 11.84% | 6.68% | 45.67% | 18.18% | 1467.13% | 19-Mar-97 | 331.87M |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3276.57 | 0.82% | 5.75% | 6.61% | 1.68% | 32.68% | 16.73% | 227.66% | 19-Oct-06 | 575.85M |
| Trimegah FTSE Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1287.85 | 0.28% | 3.59% | 8.98% | 10.18% | - | - | 28.78% | 3-Nov-20 | 21.23M |
| Syailendra MSCI Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1182.55 | 0.26% | 5.19% | 12.76% | 8.93% | 30.44% | 21.63% | 18.25% | 8-Jun-18 | 771.65M |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18496.59 | -0.52% | 5.88% | 7.77% | 7.42% | 38.64% | 28.35% | 2602.88% | 9-Jul-99 | 114.54M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2645.09 | -1.62% | 10.67% | 13.32% | 8.90% | 69.02% | - | 164.51% | 5-Sep-18 | 26.14M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 3105.04 | -2.31% | 9.07% | 12.19% | 11.93% | 72.03% | - | 210.50% | 4-Dec-18 | 68.23M |
Provided by AIT, last update 18 Agustus 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 21 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:15 AM | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.55% | 3.40% | |
| 8:15 AM | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y AUG | 4.20% | 4.05% | |
| 1:00 PM | DE | PPI MoM JUL | -0.30% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| Tuesday, 22 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 5:00 PM | GB | CBI Industrial Trends Orders AUG | -9 | -7 | |
| 6:30 PM | US | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
| 9:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales MoM JUL | -3.30% | -0.50% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales JUL | 4.16M | 4.15M | 4.1M |
| Wednesday, 23 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:30 AM | US | Fed Goolsbee Speech | |||
| 1:30 AM | US | Fed Bowman Speech | |||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/18 | -6.195M | ||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG | 49.6 | 49.9 | |
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash AUG | 53.9 | 53.6 | |
| 2:30 PM | DE | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG | 38.8 | 38.7 | 41 |
| 2:30 PM | DE | HCOB Services PMI Flash AUG | 52.3 | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG | 45.3 | 45 | 45.2 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Flash AUG | 51.5 | 50.8 | 50.5 |
| 6:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate AUG/18 | 7.16% | ||
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG | 49 | 49.4 | 49.5 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Services PMI Flash AUG | 52.3 | 52.3 | 52 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Flash AUG | 52 | 52 | |
| 9:00 PM | US | New Home Sales MoM JUL | -2.50% | -1.60% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | New Home Sales JUL | 0.697M | 0.706M | 0.686M |
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change AUG/18 | -5.96M | ||
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/18 | -0.261M | ||
| Thursday, 24 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:30 PM | ID | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75% | 5.75% | |
| 5:00 PM | GB | CBI Distributive Trades AUG | -25 | -32 | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL | 4.70% | -4.00% | 0.50% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims AUG/19 | 239K | 240K | 242.0K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM JUL | 0.60% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index JUL | -0.32 | -0.4 | |
| US | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
| Friday, 25 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:01 AM | GB | Gfk Consumer Confidence AUG | -30 | -29 | -32 |
| 1:00 PM | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3:00 PM | DE | Ifo Business Climate AUG | 87.3 | 86.6 | 86.9 |
| 9:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final AUG | 71.6 | 71.1 | 71.2 |
| 9:05 PM | US | Fed Chair Powell Speech | |||
| US | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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