Cermati Invest Weekly Update 23 Desember 2024
Ulasan Pasar
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IHSG | -4.65% | 6,983.87 |
| ISSI | -5.64% | 212.33 |
| IDX30 | -6.13% | 416.13 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -5.21% | 3,172.81 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -5.36% | 6,550.77 |
| USD/IDR | 1.25% | 16,190.00 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
IHSG & Saham Pekan Ini
IHSG, sejak awal tahun 2024 berada di zona negatif (-)3.97%. Akhir pekan lalu berhasil menutup support gap 6967 bahkan sempat mencatatkan titik terendah semester 2 ini di 6931, meninggalkan beberapa resistance gap di 7107, 7125 dan 7324 yang akan menjadi target terdekat bila IHSG naik. Sedangkan support gap terdekat ada di 7019—7032 dan 6983 yang akan dituju selanjutnya bila tidak berhasil naik.
Masih ada beberapa hari bursa menjelang awal 2025, perkiraan IHSG akan bergerak dalam rentang 6983—7125—7324. Sepertinya IHSG sulit naik mencapai 7378 sebagai window dressing pada penutupan 2024. Salah satu fenomena yang diharapkan para investor dan trader setiap akhir kuartal ataupun akhir tahun. Berikutnya adalah January effect, suatu fenomena yang diharapkan dapat terjadi setiap awal tahun.
Saham, indeks terbaik sepanjang 2024 masih dipegang oleh Pefindo 25 dan Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) dengan sektor sektor terbaiknya: Energi dan Kesehatan. Cyclicals dan Non-Cyclicals walaupun performanya di atas IHSG, tetapi berada di zona negatif.
Pekan ini cermati emiten: ADRO, APIC, BREN, CUAN, CLEAO, ESSA, EXCL, FILM, MTEL, PGAS, SAME, SCMA, SSIA.
Pergerakan Rupiah
Pekan lalu The Fed mengumumkan 4.5% sebagai suku bunga terakhir 2024 ini, turun 25 basis poin. Sedangkan Bank Indonesia menetapkan 6% sebagai suku bunga terakhir 2024 ini, sehingga dolar menguat dan rupiah tertekan hampir mencapai Rp16.500 pekan lalu. Pekan ini rupiah bergerak di area Rp16.100—Rp16.500.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -1.04% | 2,620.79 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -2.57% | 69.46 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -9.64% | 4,433.00 |
| Natural Gas | -10.40% | 2.94 |
| Newcastle Coal | -2.56% | 127.40 |
| Nickel | 0.00% | 15,876.00 |
| Tin | -1.40% | 28,689.00 |
| Copper | -1.14% | 8,957.00 |
| Aluminium | -2.75% | 2,543.00 |
| US Soybeans | -1.39% | 974.50 |
| Silver | -3.45% | 29.96 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
Emas
Harga emas dunia terpuruk pada pekan lalu, terutama ketika pengumuman suku bunga The Fed. Data ekonomi sampai akhir tahun 2024, tidak ada yang signifikan, sehingga diperkirakan harga emas akan cenderung sideways dalam area US$2564—US$2697.
Pekan ini harga emas murni dan emas digital dalam kisaran Rp1.320.000—Rp1.390.000. Harga emas fisik atau logam mulia biasanya lebih tinggi Rp60.000—Rp100.000 per gramnya.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -2.25% | 42,840.26 |
| S&P 500 | -1.99% | 5,930.85 |
| FTSE 100 | -2.60% | 8,084.61 |
| DAX | -2.55% | 19,884.75 |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.89% | 38,723.50 |
| Hang Seng | -1.25% | 19,720.70 |
| Shanghai | -0.70% | 3,368.07 |
| KOSPI | -3.62% | 2,404.15 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Reksa dana, jenis pasar uang lebih stabil dan mudah untuk dicairkan sewaktu waktu tanpa penalti.
Reksa dana pendapatan tetap, terlihat berkurang performanya, mengikuti turunnya suku bunga Bank Indonesia dan Amerika, walau demikian mulai ada beberapa yang menarik dapat dicermati dalam tabel.
Surat berharga, dapat cermati beberapa obligasi yang kami pilihkan dalam tabel.
Kebijakan Bank Sentral Amerika Pengaruhi Kinerja Pasar Keuangan Indonesia
Pasar keuangan Indonesia kompak melemah pada perdagangan pekan lalu setelah bank sentral Amerika Serikat The Federal Reserve dan Bank Indonesia mengumumkan kebijakan moneternya. Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada 17-18 Desember 2024 memutuskan untuk mempertahankan BI-Rate sebesar 6.00%, suku bunga Deposit Facility sebesar 5.25%, dan suku bunga Lending Facility sebesar 6.75%. Keputusan ini konsisten dengan arah kebijakan moneter untuk memastikan tetap terkendalinya inflasi dalam sasaran 2,5±1% pada 2024 dan 2025, serta mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. Di sisi lain, pada Kamis (19/12/2024) dini hari waktu Indonesia, bank sentral Amerika atau The Fed memangkas suku bunganya sebesar 25 basis poin (bps) ke 4.35-4.50%, sesuai ekspektasi pasar. Akan tetapi di balik pemangkasan, bank sentral AS tersebut mengisyaratkan akan lebih hati-hati dalam memangkas suku bunga ke depan. The Fed dalam pernyataan terbarunya menyebutkan bahwa pemangkasan suku bunga acuan (Fed Funds Rate) pada 2025 kemungkinan hanya akan terjadi dua kali, lebih rendah dari proyeksi September yang mencapai 100 basis poin (bps). Nilai tukar rupiah kembali anjlok terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada perdagangan pekan lalu, bahkan sempat sentuh di Rp16.300/US$.
Pada pekan ini, perdagangan pasar keuangan Indonesia hanya berjalan tiga hari saja. Lantaran pada tanggal 25-26 merupakan hari libur Natal dan cuti bersama. Meskipun pasar keuangan RI hanya berjalan tiga hari saja, pasar masih berharap adanya Santa Rally atau fenomena pasar saham di mana ekuitas di pasar maju mengalami efek positif jangka pendek menjelang Natal pada perdagangan pekan ini, mengingat pergerakan IHSG dan juga rupiah sudah terjun cukup dalam sepekan kemarin. Dari tahun ke tahun, fenomena ini menjadi salah satu hal yang menggembirakan bagi investor. Hal tersebut tentu membuat investor memiliki kemungkinan untuk mendapatkan untung jelang tutup tahun. Jika melihat data historis pada Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) selama 10 tahun terakhir, momentum Santa Claus rally yang juga bertepatan dengan window dressing membuat probabilitas IHSG ditutup hijau sangat dominan, peluangnya mencapai 90%. Adapun sejumlah teori mengapa Santa Claus rally bisa terjadi, mulai dari pertimbangan pajak hingga investor yang membeli saham dengan bonus liburan mereka. Rally-nya pasar saham di akhir tahun biasanya disebabkan adanya optimisme bullish yakni kondisi pasar yang ditunjukkan dengan kepercayaan investor, serta ekspektasi yang kuat mengenai hasil yang maksimal pada periode waktu tertentu.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2024 (YtD)
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1629.00 | 0.49% | 1.47% | 3.03% | 5.66% | 5.87% | 16.29% | 62.90% | 30 Sep 2015 | 134.63 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1575.34 | 0.49% | 1.48% | 3.34% | 5.42% | 5.58% | 14.71% | 57.53% | 13 Apr 2018 | 4.08 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1501.98 | 0.46% | 1.38% | 2.74% | 5.28% | 5.47% | 14.12% | 50.20% | 23 Dec 2016 | 702.49 B |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1892.96 | 0.43% | 1.32% | 2.67% | 5.00% | 5.17% | 13.58% | 89.30% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.25 T |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1202.73 | 0.42% | 1.30% | 2.59% | 5.11% | 5.28% | 12.62% | 20.27% | 12 Jul 2016 | 478.61 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang III | 1754.57 | 0.42% | 1.34% | 2.82% | 5.24% | 5.38% | 12.52% | 75.46% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.51 T |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1607.63 | 0.42% | 1.34% | 2.71% | 4.98% | 5.16% | 14.28% | 60.76% | 10 Jun 2015 | 972.78 B |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1681.08 | 0.42% | 1.26% | 2.53% | 4.82% | 5.01% | 13.54% | 68.11% | 12 Jun 2015 | 2.57 T |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1423.49 | 0.42% | 1.30% | 2.64% | 5.11% | 5.30% | 13.72% | 42.35% | 30 Dec 2016 | 1.53 T |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1704.02 | 0.41% | 1.29% | 2.64% | 5.24% | 5.50% | 14.78% | 70.40% | 8 Jun 2015 | 213.36 B |
| Bahana Dana Likuid Kelas G | 1865.30 | 0.39% | 1.25% | 2.48% | 4.66% | 4.83% | 11.27% | 86.53% | 27 May 1997 | 3.84 T |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1431.45 | 0.39% | 1.19% | 2.38% | 4.59% | 4.76% | 11.58% | 43.15% | 8 Sep 2016 | 123.60 B |
| Batavia Dana Kas Maxima | 1790.34 | 0.38% | 1.13% | 2.29% | 4.38% | 4.54% | 10.99% | 79.03% | 20 Feb 2007 | 11.94 T |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1607.04 | 0.38% | 1.20% | 2.45% | 4.68% | 4.87% | 13.25% | 60.70% | 10 Sep 2015 | 88.33 B |
| BNI-AM Dana Likuid Kelas A | 1895.88 | 0.35% | 1.12% | 2.27% | 4.23% | 4.31% | 11.01% | 89.59% | 27 Dec 2012 | 275.21 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1327.53 | 0.23% | 1.09% | 2.51% | 5.12% | 5.32% | 12.83% | 32.75% | 19 Jul 2018 | 353.57 B |
| UOBAM ESG Pasar Uang Indonesia | 1135.63 | 0.21% | 0.88% | 2.23% | 4.46% | 4.66% | 9.77% | 13.56% | 9 Oct 2020 | 209.45 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| UOBAM Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 1026.93 | 1.96% | 1.87% | 0.49% | 3.70% | 3.44% | 3.84% | 2.69% | 12 Jan 2021 | 120.76 B |
| Insight Renewable Energy Fund | 2287.69 | 0.82% | 2.36% | 4.11% | 7.27% | 7.53% | 19.98% | 128.77% | 22 Jun 2011 | 1.25 T |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 5050.51 | 0.63% | 1.99% | 4.17% | 7.23% | 7.45% | 23.05% | 405.05% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.97 T |
| TRIM Dana Tetap 2 Kelas A | 3212.10 | 0.14% | 1.27% | 3.66% | 5.96% | 6.14% | 15.04% | 221.21% | 13 May 2008 | 871.31 B |
| Bahana Obligasi Ganesha Kelas D | 996.21 | 0.11% | 0.64% | 2.22% | 1.39% | 1.70% | 0.82% | -0.38% | 26 Oct 2020 | 320.03 B |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1161.48 | 0.11% | 0.23% | 1.58% | 2.59% | 1.73% | 5.67% | 16.15% | 23 May 2019 | 1.90 T |
| SAM Sukuk Syariah Sejahtera | 2427.81 | -0.27% | -1.35% | 0.11% | 0.52% | -0.66% | -1.96% | 142.78% | 29 Oct 1997 | 47.36 B |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1590.85 | -0.44% | -1.67% | 3.39% | 2.80% | 3.03% | 12.30% | 59.09% | 18 May 2016 | 21.68 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3243.69 | -0.08% | -1.27% | 11.18% | 6.52% | 7.90% | 8.80% | 224.37% | 27 Dec 2006 | 22.18 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1754.25 | -1.76% | -4.73% | 9.06% | 2.08% | 3.52% | 5.15% | 75.43% | 28 Dec 2018 | 260.24 B |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2657.49 | -1.80% | -5.28% | 6.71% | 0.10% | 1.50% | 2.78% | 165.75% | 10 Nov 2006 | 27.11 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1414.43 | -2.86% | -7.09% | 3.70% | 4.48% | 6.35% | 28.53% | 41.44% | 25 Sep 2017 | 84.79 B |
| HPAM Flexi Indonesia Sehat Kelas A | 1897.05 | -3.13% | -8.29% | 11.01% | 8.41% | 8.89% | 11.33% | 89.71% | 2 Mar 2011 | 84.79 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2273.41 | 0.33% | -5.07% | 5.31% | -2.12% | -0.84% | 15.76% | 127.34% | 18 Oct 2011 | 980.51 B |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 3967.63 | -0.68% | -7.53% | 4.94% | -3.39% | -1.93% | 2.82% | 296.76% | 7 Jun 2007 | 159.85 B |
| TRIM Kapital Plus | 4305.22 | -1.22% | -5.81% | 7.10% | -2.37% | -0.97% | 13.48% | 330.52% | 18 Apr 2008 | 407.82 B |
| TRIM Syariah Saham | 1774.57 | -2.33% | -4.77% | 8.93% | -2.79% | -1.54% | -4.79% | 77.46% | 27 Dec 2006 | 105.75 B |
| HPAM Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2662.04 | -2.42% | -15.16% | -1.68% | -2.65% | -2.59% | 14.43% | 166.20% | 2 Nov 2009 | 767.69 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham Syariah | 1590.85 | -2.52% | -5.98% | 5.92% | -6.25% | -4.92% | -7.62% | 59.09% | 19 Jul 2007 | 144.05 B |
| TRIM Kapital | 10584.60 | -2.59% | -9.11% | -2.26% | -12.08% | -10.85% | 0.02% | 958.46% | 19 Mar 1997 | 330.12 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2828.64 | -2.81% | -6.33% | 7.52% | -3.47% | -1.68% | 17.83% | 182.86% | 4 Dec 2018 | 44.15 B |
| HPAM Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1905.66 | -3.08% | -11.50% | 3.78% | 15.93% | 15.52% | 90.27% | 90.57% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.70 T |
| Principal Total Return Equity Fund Kelas O | 3051.99 | -4.13% | -10.67% | 0.90% | -8.26% | -6.71% | -13.30% | 205.20% | 1 Jul 2005 | 25.66 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2211.12 | -4.18% | -8.54% | 11.51% | -5.57% | -4.01% | 2.82% | 121.11% | 5 Sep 2018 | 16.62 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 59100.35 | -4.19% | -11.20% | 0.07% | -7.75% | -6.26% | 0.29% | 5810.04% | 16 Dec 1996 | 2.00 T |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3007.32 | -4.29% | -10.55% | 2.13% | -7.44% | -6.01% | 2.26% | 200.73% | 19 Oct 2006 | 305.01 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 16350.03 | -5.17% | -12.56% | 2.90% | -8.11% | -6.57% | 0.73% | 1535% | 9 Jul 1999 | 75.94 B |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 11313.89 | -8.58% | -15.52% | -7.79% | -13.75% | -11.64% | -14.34% | 1031.39% | 27 May 1997 | 51.69 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Technology Sharia Equity USD | 1.1703 | 1.24% | 2.78% | 1.17% | 21.50% | 17.80% | - | 17.03% | 16 Feb 2022 | 76.09 M |
| STAR Fixed Income Dollar | 1.0274 | 0.31% | 0.99% | 2.70% | 5.37% | 5.48% | -8.10% | 2.74% | 10 Jul 2017 | 10.02 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.6162 | -0.10% | 6.10% | -4.07% | 1.78% | 2.55% | -38.16% | -38.38% | 15 Jun 2020 | 5.28 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.9574 | -0.35% | -2.85% | 0.42% | 0.21% | 0.42% | -2.86% | -4.26% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.38 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.9471 | -0.43% | -2.83% | -8.17% | -0.42% | 1.57% | -23.57% | -5.29% | 28 Oct 2016 | 2.85 M |
| Batavia USD Bond Fund | 1.0231 | -0.70% | -3.42% | -1.02% | -1.58% | -1.43% | - | 2.31% | 18 Oct 2022 | 21.55 M |
| Batavia Global ESG Sharia Equity USD | 1.1565 | -1.56% | -3.94% | 1.15% | 3.61% | 3.29% | 7.09% | 15.65% | 27 Jan 2021 | 13.22 M |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
Surat Utang/Obligasi
| NAMA OBLIGASI | ISIN | MATA UANG | KUPON | TANGGAL JATUH TEMPO | INDIKASI HARGA BELI | INDIKASI HARGA JUAL | INDIKASI YIELD | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR0087 | IDG000015207 | IDR | 6.50% | 15-Feb-31 | 97.85 | 96.85 | 6.93% | BBB |
| FR0097 | IDG000020900 | IDR | 7.13% | 15-Jun-43 | 100.75 | 99.75 | 7.05% | BBB |
| PBS005 | IDP000001505 | IDR | 6.75% | 15-Apr-43 | 99.3 | 98.3 | 6.82% | BBB |
| INKP01CCN1 | IDA0001069C2 | IDR | 11.00% | 5-Jun-25 | 101.5 | 100.5 | 7.69% | idA+ |
| LPPI02ACN1 | IDA0001331A0 | IDR | 10.50% | 4-Jul-26 | 101.25 | 100.25 | 9.75% | idA |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 20 Desember 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 23 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:00 PM | GB | Current Account Q3 | £-28.4B | £-24.1B | £ -23.8B |
| 2:00 PM | GB | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 | 0.70% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index NOV | -0.40 | -0.10 | |
| 10:00 PM | US | CB Consumer Confidence DEC | 111.70 | 113.00 | 112.40 |
| Tuesday, 24 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 8:30 PM | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM NOV | 0.20% | -0.40% | -0.20% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM NOV | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 10:00 PM | US | New Home Sales NOV | 0.61M | 0.65M | 0.66M |
| 10:00 PM | US | New Home Sales MoM NOV | -17.30% | 8.20% | |
| Wednesday, 25 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change DEC/20 | -4.7M | ||
| Thursday, 26 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:00 PM | JP | Housing Starts YoY NOV | -2.90% | -0.40% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims DEC/21 | 220K | 218K | 223K |
| 11:00 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change DEC/20 | -0.934M | -1.6M | |
| 11:00 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change DEC/20 | 2.348M | ||
| Friday, 27 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Unemployment Rate NOV | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Summary of Opinions | |||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Industrial Production MoM Prel NOV | 3.00% | -3.40% | -0.50% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Retail Sales YoY NOV | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.30% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv NOV | $-99.08B | $-100.9B | $-94.0B |
| 8:30 PM | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv NOV | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv NOV | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 9:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM OCT | -0.30% | -0.20% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY OCT | 4.60% | 4.40% | |
| 11:00 PM | RU | Unemployment Rate NOV | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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