Cermati Invest Weekly Update 27 Desember 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 0.69% | 7,237.52 |
| IDX LQ45 | 0.81% | 967.36 |
| IDX 30 | 0.36% | 491.41 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 0.57% | 7,505.80 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 0.63% | 3,650.16 |
| USD/IDR | -0.54% | 15,427.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
Market Review
Pekan ini akan menjadi pekan terakhir perdagangan saham di tahun 2023, di mana pekan lalu terdapat sentimen positif yaitu hasil dari Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia terhadap kebijakan arah suku bunga. Dari sisi global, Amerika dan Jepang melaporkan tingkat inflasi bulanannya.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 0.72% | 2,055.70 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 2.55% | 75.50 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | 0.21% | 3,763 |
| Natural Gas | 1.18% | 2.39 |
| Newcastle Coal | 0.52% | 146.00 |
| Nickel | -0.72% | 16,627 |
| Tin | -1.08% | 24,866 |
| Copper | -0.20% | 8,576 |
| Aluminium | 2.94% | 2,329 |
| US Soybeans | -0.23% | 1,310.50 |
| Silver | 0.09% | 24.40 |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
Economic Data
Perdagangan pasar saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) terpantau sepi pada pekan lalu. Namun, nilai kapitalisasi pasar (market cap) terus memecahkan rekor. Berdasarkan data perdagangan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) selama periode 18-22 Desember 2023, kapitalisasi pasar bursa meningkat 0.97% menjadi Rp11.650 triliun dari Rp11.540 triliun pada pekan lalu. Selama pekan lalu, rata-rata nilai transaksi harian turun 15.7% menjadi Rp12,6 triliun dari Rp14,9 triliun pada pekan lalu. Pada perdagangan Jumat (22/12/2023), investor asing mencatatkan transaksi jual bersih (net sell) sebesar Rp68,8 miliar. Dengan demikian, net sell investor asing sepanjang tahun berjalan ini menjadi Rp9,06 triliun.
Sentimen positif berasal dari Bank Indonesia (BI), hasil rapat dewan gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada Desember 2023 kembali memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 6.00%, suku bunga Deposit Facility sebesar 5.25%, dan suku bunga Lending Facility sebesar 6.75%. Gubernur BI, Perry Warjiyo, menjelaskan, keputusan itu untuk terus menjaga konsistensi kebijakan moneter BI mendukung stabilitas perekonomian (pro stability), terutama untuk penguatan stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah serta langkah preemptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali dalam sasaran 2,5±1% pada 2024. BI juga mengungkapkan memiliki ruang untuk menurunkan BI Rate pada semester II-2024.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.35% | 37,429.98 |
| S&P 500 | -0.05% | 4,765.83 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.78% | 7,697.51 |
| DAX | -0.23% | 16,706.18 |
| Nikkei 225 | 0.26% | 33,305.85 |
| Hang Seng | -1.00% | 16,340.41 |
| Shanghai | -1.14% | 2,898.88 |
| KOSPI | 1.33% | 2,602.59 |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
Regional Info
Indeks harga pengeluaran konsumsi pribadi inti Amerika Serikat November 2023 hanya naik 0.1% dari bulan sebelumnya, dan naik 3.2% dari tahun lalu, sesuai dengan ekspektasi pelaku pasar. Ekonom yang disurvei oleh Dow Jones memperkirakan kenaikan sebesar 0.1% bulan ke bulan, dan 3.3% tahun ke tahun. Pekan ini merupakan minggu terakhir bagi perdagangan Wall Street sebelum libur tahun baru. Pelaku pasar pun menunggu sejauh mana fenomena Santa Rally akan terjadi pada tahun ini. Seperti diketahui, Santa Rally merupakan momen spesifik, di mana ada kecenderungan Wall Street akan mengalami kenaikan di lima hari terakhir perdagangan setiap tahunnya, dan berlanjut di dua hari pertama tahun yang baru.
Dari Jepang, inflasinya pada November lalu menunjukkan tanda-tanda penurunan yang lebih jelas, memberikan dukungan bagi pandangan bank sentral Jepang (Bank of Japan/BoJ) bahwa pertumbuhan harga akan melemah untuk saat ini. Inflasi Jepang pada bulan lalu turun menjadi 2.8% secara tahunan (year-on-year/yoy), dari sebelumnya sebesar 3.3% pada Oktober lalu. Namun, angka ini lebih tinggi dari perkiraan pasar yang tumbuh menjadi 2.6%. Adapun untuk inflasi inti, yang tidak termasuk bahan makanan segar hanya tumbuh 2.5% (yoy) lalu, melambat setelah akselerasi tak terduga di Oktober karena penurunan biaya energi semakin dalam dan kenaikan harga makanan olahan menurun.
Insight 2023 4th Quarter, 13th week
IHSG, sampai akhir tahun 2023, masih berusaha Window Dressing dengan tutup di sekitar 7297—7369. Ke depannya IHSG diprediksikan mencapai 7453.
RUPIAH, terhadap dollar Amerika diperkirakan antara 15380—15550 per 1 dollar Amerika.
EMAS, sampai akhir 2023 cenderung bergerak lebih tinggi di sekitar 2054—2073 US dollar lalu ke 2149 US dollar per troy ounce.
Ke depannya bergerak lebih tinggi ke 2318—2359 US dollar per troy ounce tahun depan. Dalam rupiah, pekan ini harga emas masih di antara 1027000—1074500 rupiah per gram.
CERMATI, Year to Date, IHSG performanya positif. Diikuti oleh, Indeks Sri-Kehati, LQ45, FTSE Indonesia dan MSCI Indonesia. Sedangkan Desember 2023 ini, indeks LQ45 & BISNIS27 performanya di atas IHSG. Jadi seharusnya, reksa dana yang mirroring indeks tersebut, membukukan NAB yang bagus sepanjang Desember 2023 ini. Cermati top 5 emiten atau saham yang ada dalam Indeks Banking, Basic Industry & Energy sampai akhir tahun 2023 dan menjelang awal tahun 2024.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Flexi Plus | 1746.09 | 10.46% | 8.47% | 14.15% | 7.32% | 6.82% | -3.26% | 74.61% | 2 Mar 2011 | 39.70 B |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1235.94 | 3.38% | -0.30% | 1.56% | 5.86% | 5.43% | 7.93% | 23.59% | 8 Sep 2016 | 100.20 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9291.16 | 1.98% | -1.09% | 0.12% | 4.62% | 4.33% | 12.46% | 829.12% | 3 Jun 2002 | 155.44 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1433.16 | 1.40% | 0.98% | 1.93% | 4.44% | 4.75% | 13.31% | 43.32% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.16 B |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1807.84 | 0.74% | -6.46% | -1.68% | 5.50% | 4.46% | 5.88% | 80.78% | 21 Dec 2017 | 30.62 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1331.06 | 0.39% | -4.74% | 0.62% | 4.72% | 3.40% | 29.15% | 33.11% | 25 Sep 2017 | 60.49 B |
| Trim Kombinasi 2 | 2621.12 | 0.06% | -7.63% | 2.07% | 5.88% | 5.59% | 12.05% | 162.11% | 10 Nov 2006 | 25.55 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1696.32 | -0.27% | -8.16% | 2.15% | 6.63% | 6.46% | 25.09% | 69.63% | 28 Dec 2018 | 294.08 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1260.83 | 0.59% | 1.43% | 2.35% | 4.53% | 4.68% | 11.62% | 26.08% | 19 Jul 2018 | 36.19 B |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1615.93 | 0.43% | 1.22% | 2.29% | 4.48% | 4.53% | 13.33% | 61.59% | 8 Jun 2015 | 172.19 B |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1601.33 | 0.42% | 1.08% | 2.06% | 4.04% | 4.18% | 12.57% | 60.13% | 12 Jun 2015 | 3.18 T |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1424.52 | 0.42% | 1.26% | 2.47% | 4.59% | 4.71% | 12.89% | 42.45% | 23 Dec 2016 | 707.10 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1352.23 | 0.40% | 1.15% | 2.24% | 4.24% | 4.36% | 11.76% | 35.22% | 30 Dec 2016 | 452.58 B |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1532.88 | 0.40% | 1.12% | 2.29% | 4.39% | 4.52% | 12.72% | 53.29% | 10 Sep 2015 | 124.36 B |
| Hpam Ultima Money Market | 1529.10 | 0.39% | 1.13% | 2.18% | 4.43% | 4.49% | 14.02% | 52.91% | 10 Jun 2015 | 470.83 B |
| Trim Kas 2 Kelas A | 1800.30 | 0.37% | 1.10% | 2.19% | 4.17% | 4.29% | 12.54% | 80.03% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.79 T |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1366.80 | 0.37% | 1.07% | 2.15% | 4.00% | 4.08% | 9.40% | 36.68% | 8 Sep 2016 | 113.00 B |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1142.68 | 0.36% | 1.05% | 2.09% | 3.99% | 4.11% | 10.32% | 14.27% | 12 Jul 2016 | 219.13 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1492.38 | 0.34% | 1.02% | 2.05% | 4.27% | 4.36% | 13.10% | 49.24% | 13 Apr 2018 | 3.27 B |
| Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang Iii | 1665.31 | 0.30% | 1.07% | 2.06% | 3.98% | 4.10% | 11.26% | 66.53% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.18 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Uobam Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 995.22 | 4.63% | 6.44% | 5.11% | 4.45% | 4.03% | - | -0.48% | 12 Jan 2021 | 80.58 B |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1545.07 | 1.51% | 1.95% | 1.11% | 6.62% | 6.76% | 11.11% | 54.51% | 18 May 2016 | 20.93 B |
| Danareksa Brawijaya Abadi Pendapatan Tetap | 1330.98 | 1.50% | 2.12% | 0.64% | 4.86% | 4.83% | 9.95% | 33.10% | 25 Feb 2019 | 11.86 B |
| Bni-Am Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1618.61 | 1.37% | 1.72% | 0.87% | 6.96% | 7.13% | 12.21% | 61.86% | 16 Jun 2016 | 66.88 B |
| Danareksa Melati Pendapatan Utama | 1826.41 | 1.37% | 2.17% | 0.38% | 5.22% | 5.51% | 7.80% | 82.64% | 27 Sep 2012 | 51.64 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2509.32 | 1.30% | 1.66% | 0.82% | 6.15% | 6.22% | 10.91% | 150.93% | 8 Dec 2011 | 145.94 B |
| Eastspring Idr Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1689.06 | 1.26% | 1.67% | 0.54% | 5.49% | 5.68% | 10.58% | 68.91% | 16 Mar 2015 | 129.68 B |
| Cipta Bond | 1749.72 | 1.26% | 1.88% | 1.32% | 4.83% | 5.00% | 6.63% | 74.97% | 2 Jan 2019 | 17.82 B |
| Sequis Bond Optima | 1446.24 | 1.25% | 2.01% | 0.57% | 3.69% | 3.86% | 9.21% | 44.62% | 8 Sep 2016 | 37.72 B |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1045.43 | 1.15% | 1.08% | 0.66% | 5.24% | 5.42% | - | 4.54% | 1 Sep 2022 | 3.68 B |
| Danakita Obligasi Negara | 1074.28 | 0.99% | 1.18% | 0.56% | 4.26% | 4.41% | - | 7.43% | 26 Mar 2021 | 53.72 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1579.50 | 0.70% | 0.61% | 0.41% | 6.30% | 6.38% | 11.95% | 57.95% | 16 Aug 2016 | 423.03 B |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1100.85 | 0.66% | 0.25% | -0.10% | 5.37% | 5.62% | - | 10.09% | 21 Oct 2020 | 10.44 B |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4701.62 | 0.48% | 1.28% | 2.88% | 6.45% | 6.65% | 22.43% | 370.16% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.60 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Idx Esg Leaders Plus Kelas A | 1013.94 | 10.69% | 5.89% | 4.62% | 7.49% | 6.31% | - | 1.39% | 12 Jan 2022 | 20.44 B |
| Danareksa Msci Indonesia Esg Screened Kelas A | 1075.83 | 4.62% | -1.34% | 1.22% | 6.34% | 5.74% | - | 7.58% | 7 Sep 2022 | 121.18 B |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2266.37 | 4.10% | -3.11% | 8.80% | 12.84% | 15.58% | 14.95% | 126.64% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.03 T |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1271.26 | 4.01% | -0.35% | -0.13% | 7.58% | 6.78% | - | 27.13% | 3 Nov 2020 | 30.63 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4366.55 | 3.97% | -3.41% | 2.14% | 12.30% | 11.47% | 31.02% | 336.66% | 18 Apr 2008 | 267.25 B |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1163.70 | 3.76% | -2.63% | 0.01% | 10.96% | 9.27% | 16.63% | 16.37% | 8 Jun 2018 | 864.39 B |
| Uobam Sustainable Equity Indonesia | 991.35 | 3.59% | -3.50% | -3.07% | 1.54% | 0.99% | - | -0.87% | 4 Aug 2021 | 136.05 B |
| Bni-Am Indeks Idx Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1166.25 | 3.59% | -0.40% | 3.60% | 5.63% | 4.82% | - | 16.63% | 27 Jan 2022 | 1.51 B |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1056.62 | 3.20% | -1.39% | 2.01% | 8.62% | 8.23% | - | 5.66% | 15 Dec 2021 | 24.67 B |
| Trim Kapital | 11911.83 | 2.96% | -5.00% | -0.91% | 8.81% | 8.06% | 26.18% | 1091.18% | 19 Mar 1997 | 445.56 B |
| Hpam Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2727.95 | 2.86% | -2.19% | 12.71% | 10.30% | 9.25% | 26.26% | 172.79% | 2 Nov 2009 | 529.34 B |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1187.14 | 2.45% | -2.27% | -0.82% | 7.55% | 6.58% | 20.57% | 18.71% | 29 Mar 2018 | 75.34 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Usd Kelas A | 0.95 | 2.59% | 3.81% | 3.45% | 3.88% | 3.85% | - | -4.55% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.18 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific Usd Kelas A | 0.93 | -0.39% | 3.13% | -4.04% | -3.29% | -2.66% | -31.01% | -6.64% | 28 Oct 2016 | 5.27 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity Usd Kelas A | 0.60 | -2.31% | 1.11% | -7.99% | -13.82% | -12.48% | -49.09% | -39.65% | 15 Jun 2020 | 7.04 M |
Provided by AIT, last update 22 Desember 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 25 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| JP | BOJ Gov Ueda Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, 26 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Unemployment Rate NOV | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index NOV | -0.49 | 0.20 | |
| 9:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM OCT | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY OCT | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| 10:30 PM | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index DEC | -19.9 | -20.5 | |
| Wednesday, 27 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Summary of Opinions | |||
| 12:00 PM | JP | Housing Starts YoY NOV | -6.3% | -4.3% | -5.8% |
| Thursday, 28 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change DEC/22 | 0.939M | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Industrial Production MoM Prel NOV | 1.3% | -1.6% | -1.2% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Retail Sales YoY NOV | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv NOV | $-89.56B | $-90.0B | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims DEC/23 | 205K | 210K | 207.0K |
| 8:30 PM | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv NOV | -0.9% | -0.7% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv NOV | -0.4% | -0.2% | |
| 10:00 PM | US | Pending Home Sales MoM NOV | -1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 10:00 PM | US | Pending Home Sales YoY NOV | -8.5% | -6.0% | |
| 11:00 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change DEC/22 | 2.909M | ||
| 11:00 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change DEC/22 | 2.71M | ||
| Friday, 29 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:00 PM | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM DEC | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY DEC | -2.0% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| 9:45 PM | US | Chicago PMI DEC | 55.8 | 51 | 50 |
| Sunday, 31 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI DEC | 49.4 | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI DEC | 50.2 | 50.3 | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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