Cermati Invest Weekly Update 28 Agustus 2023

INDONESIA
Ticker W (-/+) % Price
IDX Composite 0.52% 6,895.44
IDX LQ45 0.00% 956.72
IDX 30 0.01% 495.63
MSCI Indonesia 0.06% 7,566.82
FTSE Indonesia 0.05% 3,700.40
USD/IDR 0.12% 15,298.10

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

Market Review

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) mengalami kenaikan selama sepekan perdagangan. Rupiah melemah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) disebabkan sikap wait and see dari Bank Sentral Amerika dan hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia (BI).

COMMODITY
Ticker W (-/+) % Price
XAU/USD 1.40% 1,914.60
Crude Oil WTI -1.48% 80.05
Palm Oil c3 F 2.35% 3,962
Natural Gas 0.04% 2.55
Newcastle Coal -9.03% 136.00
Nickel 3.18% 20,772
Tin 2.41% 25,870
Copper 1.54% 8,367
Aluminium 0.84% 2,155
US Soybeans 2.40% 1,386.75

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

Economic Data

Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) mencatatkan nilai rata-rata volume transaksi pada pekan ini mengalami kenaikan sebesar 6,66 persen menjadi 17,88 miliar lembar saham dari 16,77 miliar lembar saham pada pekan lalu. Pekan lalu, Bank Indonesia (BI) kembali memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan. Rupiah dan inflasi menjadi alasan utama dalam penentuan kebijakan tersebut. BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7DRR) pada Agustus 2023 sebesar 5,75%. Suku bunga Deposit Facility sebesar 5,00%, dan suku bunga Lending Facility sebesar 6,50%.

Bank Indonesia (BI) menerbitkan instrumen baru untuk menopang stabilitas rupiah. Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo mengumumkan akan menerbitkan instrumen operasi moneter kontraksi, yakni Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI). Instrumen ini juga menjadi instrumen pro-market dalam rangka memperkuat upaya pendalaman pasar uang, mendukung upaya menarik aliran masuk modal asing dalam bentuk investasi portofolio, serta untuk optimalisasi aset SBN yang dimiliki Bank Indonesia.

Pekan ini, sentimen penggerak utama akan datang dari rilis data tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia pada hari Jumat (1/9/2023). Indeks harga konsumen (IHK) Agustus diperkirakan konsensus Trading Economics meningkat secara tahunan menjadi 3,37% dari bulan Juli di 3,08%.

REGIONAL
Ticker W (-/+) % Price
Dow Jones -0.45% 34,346.90
S&P 500 0.82% 4,405.71
FTSE 100 1.05% 7,338.58
DAX 0.37% 15,631.82
Nikkei 225 0.56% 31,627.50
Hang Seng 0.01% 17,952.50
Shanghai -2.17% 3,064.07
KOSPI 0.58% 2,519.14

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

Regional Info

Pada pasar Wall Street pergerakan pekan lalu didukung dari kinerja keuangan kuartalan produsen chip Nvidia, yang tengah dilanda euforia kecerdasan buatan (artificial intelligence/AI). Perusahaan juga meningkatkan panduan kinerja tahunannya. Direksi Nvidia memperkirakan pendapatan kuartal III-2023 akan naik menjadi US$16 miliar, atau meningkat 170% secara tahunan (year on year/yoy). Dari awal tahun saham (year to date/ytd) NVDIA sudah naik 221%.

Pada pasar Amerika, sentimen datang dari ketua Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) Jerome Powell menyampaikan pidatonya, mengatakan, bank sentral siap menaikkan suku bunga lebih lanjut untuk memerangi inflasi. Ketua Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (Federal Reserve/The Fed) Jerome Powell menegaskan bahwa target inflasi adalah 2 persen. Di sisi lain, dia juga menunjukkan adanya kekhawatiran baru terhadap data ekonomi terkini dari AS. Perekonomian yang terus tumbuh di atas tren, kata Powell, dikhawatirkan akan ‘mengganggu’ Upaya The Fed untuk menekan laju inflasi untuk mencapai target 2 persen. 

Harga minyak mentah dunia ditutup lebih tinggi pada pembukaan perdagangan Jumat (25/8/2023), melanjutkan penguatan pada perdagangan Kamis sebelumnya. Namun, dalam sepekan harga minyak mentah WTI terkoreksi 1,75% dan minyak mentah brent turun 0,38%. Penurunan dalam sepekan dipengaruhi oleh kekhawatiran para pelaku pasar mengenai pidato Powell pada Jumat kemarin. Data ekonomi yang lemah dan penguatan dolar masih membatasi kenaikan harga minyak.

Insight 2023 3rd Quarter, 9th week

IHSG, masih dalam area sideways, batas bawah 6806—6815 dan batas atas 6937-6970, tidak kemana-mana sejak pertengahan Juli 2023 lalu.

RUPIAH, sampai akhir pekan ini, masih berada di area 15220—15341, cenderung melemah terhadap mata uang Amerika (US Dollar). Kedepannya pelemahan menuju 15759.

EMAS, banyaknya data rilis pekan ini (lihat kalender), harga emas dunia pekan ini bergerak dalam area cukup lebar, batas bawah koreksinya di sekitar 1880 US per t’o, sedangkan batas atasnya menuju 1940 US per t’o., begitupun harga emas dalam rupiah.

CERMATI, Reksa Dana Campuran dan Reksa Dana Pasar Uang selama bursa saham masih sideways (mendatar), rupiah melemah, tetapi suku bunga & inflasi terkendali.

 USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2022

Reksa Dana

                Inception  
Reksa Dana CAMPURAN NAV 1M 3M YtD 1Y 3Y 5Y % Date AUM
TRIM Syariah Berimbang 3166.99 2.59% 6.19% 8.38% 1.13% 23.02% 28.57% 216.70% 27-Dec-06 20.27M
Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund 3168.31 2.19% 4.93% 3.46% -4.46% 33.98% 33.94% 216.83% 22-Apr-08 133.89M
Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A 1738.83 1.98% 7.16% 9.30% 1.82% 47.85% - 73.88% 28-Dec-18 301.5M
TRIM Kombinasi 2 2686.35 1.84% 7.05% 8.52% 3.06% 27.73% 13.03% 168.63% 10-Nov-06 24.26M
Setiabudi Dana Campuran 1367.69 0.17% 5.62% 7.60% 5.28% 49.62% 32.95% 36.77% 25-Sep-17 60.15M
Batavia Dana Dinamis 9356.22 -0.12% 2.31% 5.35% 3.83% 24.04% 27.32% 835.62% 3-Jun-02 356.45M
SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran 1821.52 -1.89% -0.38% 6.30% 1.14% 35.83% 79.18% 82.15% 21-Dec-17 29.21M

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

                Inception  
Reksa Dana PASAR UANG NAV 1M 3M YtD 1Y 3Y 5Y % Date AUM
Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang 1401.63 0.40% 1.18% 2.91% 4.17% 13.03% 28.21% 40.16% 23-Dec-16 609.81M
Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang 1510.85 0.40% 1.16% 2.89% 4.14% 13.04% 26.68% 51.08% 10-Sep-15 147.76M
Trimegah Kas Syariah 1332.53 0.36% 1.08% 2.72% 4.07% 11.53% 23.36% 33.25% 30-Dec-16 353.14M
TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A 1774.88 0.36% 1.07% 2.70% 4.04% 12.75% 24.70% 77.49% 8-Apr-08 3.47T
Sequis Liquid Prima 1348.27 0.36% 1.08% 2.59% 3.35% 9.42% 21.79% 34.83% 8-Sep-16 39.47M
HPAM Ultima Money Market 1507.25 0.35% 1.05% 2.94% 4.28% 14.49% 29.19% 50.73% 10-Jun-15 619.95M
Syailendra Dana Kas 1580.28 0.34% 1.03% 2.67% 4.15% 13.05% 27.27% 58.03% 12-Jun-15 3.6T
Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G 1127.28 0.34% 1.02% 2.59% 3.71% 10.46% - 12.73% 12-Jul-16 151.85M
Batavia Dana Kas Maxima 1691.39 0.33% 0.97% 2.38% 3.25% 9.41% 21.58% 69.14% 20-Feb-07 10.55T
Insight Retail Cash Fund 1473.54 0.32% 1.18% 2.95% 4.00% 13.39% 29.51% 47.35% 13-Apr-18 2.8M
Bahana Dana Likuid 1758.06 0.32% 0.93% 2.34% 3.26% 9.72% 22.49% 75.81% 27-May-97 5.17T
BNI-AM Dana Likuid 1796.27 0.29% 0.90% 2.46% 3.35% 10.34% 23.71% 79.63% 27-Dec-12 728.48M
Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang III 1642.11 0.27% 0.98% 2.54% 3.56% 11.64% 23.40% 64.21% 16-Feb-10 1.9T
SAM Dana Kas 1351.34 0.25% 0.94% 2.61% 3.52% 10.41% 24.23% 35.13% 10-Feb-17 202.09M
Cipta Dana Cash 1590.09 0.24% 0.97% 2.81% 4.36% 13.00% 27.05% 59.01% 8-Jun-15 175.63M
BNI-AM Dana Lancar Syariah 1679.51 0.23% 0.91% 2.49% 3.48% 10.87% 22.70% 64.71% 28-Jun-13 147.64M
Principal Cash Fund 1753.2 0.10% 0.74% 2.41% 3.06% 10.25% 23.11% 75.32% 23-Dec-11 137.01M
Eastspring Investment Cash Reserve Kelas A 1593.87 0.08% 0.67% 1.98% 2.55% 6.46% 18.04% 59.39% 3-Jul-13 49.6M

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

                Inception  
Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP NAV 1M 3M YtD 1Y 3Y 5Y % Date AUM
Insight Haji Syariah 4624.66 0.57% 1.74% 4.71% 7.08% 23.41% 39.22% 362.47% 13-Jan-05 1.78T
TRIM Dana Tetap 2 2990.57 0.43% 1.43% 2.90% 4.31% 15.60% 34.13% 199.06% 13-May-08 416.45M
Trimegah Fixed Income Plan 1141.77 0.42% 1.46% 4.14% 6.01% 18.76% - 31.60% 23-May-19 4.61T
Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A 1425.06 -0.41% 1.39% 4.28% 4.81% 14.28% 37.34% 42.51% 17-Apr-17 218.19M
Bahana Mes Syariah Fund Kelas G 1484.79 -0.44% 1.44% 4.40% 5.67% 15.13% 37.81% 48.48% 11-Nov-16 240.78M
BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani 1571.78 -0.48% 1.61% 5.78% 6.48% 18.42% 48.46% 57.18% 16-Aug-16 398.05M
Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima 2902.24 -0.61% 0.42% 3.23% 4.50% 10.92% 28.30% 212.98% 20-Dec-06 1.39T
Cipta Bond 1715.38 -0.72% -0.19% 2.77% 4.80% 11.93% 38.56% 69.03% 2-Jan-19 18.38M
SAM Sukuk Syariah Sejahtera 2460.65 -0.73% 0.35% 3.85% 5.00% 16.93% 44.67% 163.04% 29-Oct-97 55.75M
Syailendra Fixed Income Fund 2478.62 -0.82% 0.45% 4.85% 7.28% 13.92% 40.27% 147.86% 8-Dec-11 215.12M
HPAM Government Bond 1521.2 -0.85% 0.58% 4.97% 7.27% 14.33% 39.31% 52.12% 18-May-16 20.68M
Principal Income Fund Syariah 1094.91 -0.86% 2.09% 4.80% 7.46% - - 9.49% 21-Oct-20 3.47M
BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Nirwasita 1597.99 -1.17% 0.62% 5.60% 7.97% 17.97% 45.10% 59.80% 16-Jun-16 85.5M
Eastspring IDR Fixed Income Fund Kelas A 1668.52 -1.27% 0.37% 4.21% 6.31% 14.73% 39.04% 66.85% 16-Mar-15 153.02M
Eastspring Investments IDR High Grade Kelas A 1619.01 -1.39% 0.11% 4.00% 7.26% 11.92% 34.83% 61.90% 9-Jan-13 28.05M

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

                Inception  
Reksa Dana SAHAM NAV 1M 3M YtD 1Y 3Y 5Y % Date AUM
HPAM Ultima Ekuitas 1 2576.87 5.54% 8.22% 4.19% -1.97% 27.57% 7.28% 157.69% 2-Nov-09 642.33M
TRIM Syariah Saham 1942.68 2.63% 6.10% 6.90% -1.74% 19.53% 18.04% 94.27% 27-Dec-06 96.61M
SAM Indonesian Equity Fund 2201.99 2.28% 9.99% 9.71% 5.84% 39.37% -6.02% 134.41% 18-Oct-11 1.05T
Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A 1578.9 1.18% 3.28% 6.66% 4.11% 28.73% 14.35% 57.89% 29-Aug-12 111.13M
Eastspring Investments Value Discovery Kelas A 1361.24 1.12% 2.97% 3.86% -0.88% 26.76% 7.99% 36.12% 29-May-13 466.25M
Batavia Dana Saham 64481.73 1.06% 3.84% 5.54% 3.16% 20.93% 6.80% 2447.51% 16-Dec-96 3.67T
TRIM Kapital Plus 4387.35 0.78% 5.33% 12.84% 7.31% 49.08% 21.86% 338.73% 18-Apr-08 170.47M
Batavia Disruptive Equity 1056.26 0.78% 4.64% 8.58% 4.68% - - 5.63% 15-Dec-21 23.65M
Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund 4143.9 0.78% 5.17% 8.13% 2.26% 24.32% 5.20% 314.39% 7-Jun-07 374.94M
TRIM Kapital 12232.07 0.50% 4.12% 11.74% 6.43% 44.63% 13.91% 1465.68% 19-Mar-97 331.87M
Batavia Dana Saham Optimal 3265.83 0.42% 4.22% 6.26% 2.10% 30.75% 12.25% 226.58% 19-Oct-06 575.85M
BNI-AM Indeks IDX Growth30 Kelas R1 1165.21 0.32% 3.45% 5.53% 4.46% - - 16.52% 27-Jan-22 929.68Jt
Principal Islamic Equity Growth Syariah 1241.98 0.02% 4.30% 2.36% 1.83% 5.65% -9.63% 24.20% 10-Sep-07 107.82M
Trimegah FTSE Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index 1289.42 0.01% 1.14% 9.12% 10.30% - - 28.94% 3-Nov-20 21.23M
UOBAM Indeks Bisnis-27 1451.43 0.01% 2.74% 6.61% 6.83% 27.42% 9.93% 45.14% 15-Aug-12 11.58M
Principal Indo Domestic Equity Fund 828.59 -0.10% 3.39% 4.13% -3.04% 6.05% -9.98% -17.14% 11-Apr-13 22.84M
Syailendra MSCI Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A 1186.81 -0.11% 2.06% 13.17% 9.78% 28.14% 16.16% 18.68% 8-Jun-18 771.65M
Bahana Primavera Plus 13326.52 -0.15% 3.87% -3.84% -14.31% 3.01% -12.97% 1133.01% 27-May-97 76.14M
Danakita Saham Prioritas 1180.19 -0.31% 2.21% 7.30% 7.97% 25.69% - 18.02% 17-Oct-18 11.32M
Sequis Equity Maxima 987.95 -0.37% 3.03% 3.55% -0.14% 14.66% 0.02% -1.21% 25-Aug-16 1.44T
Principal Total Return Equity Fund Kelas O 3445.42 -0.54% 3.12% 2.81% -3.49% 9.61% -3.99% 244.54% 1-Jul-05 38.96M
Bahana Primavera 99 Kelas G 1315.84 -0.60% 2.97% 3.84% 1.02% 14.59% - 31.58% 5-Sep-14 25.67M
Cipta Rencana Cerdas 18411.87 -1.04% 3.83% 7.28% 7.49% 36.68% 23.20% 2590.50% 9-Jul-99 114.54M
Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah 2643.2 -1.26% 9.06% 13.24% 7.68% 68.38% - 164.32% 5-Sep-18 26.14M
Cipta Saham Unggulan 3101.29 -1.92% 7.57% 12.06% 11.00% 72.84% - 210.13% 4-Dec-18 68.23M

Provided by AIT, last update 25 Agustus 2023

Event Calendar

Monday, 28 August 2023 Previous Consensus Forecast
9:30 PM US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG -20 -21.6 -21
Tuesday, 29 August 2023 Previous Consensus Forecast
6:30 AM JP Unemployment Rate JUL 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
1:00 PM DE GfK Consumer Confidence SEP -24.4 -24.3 -23
8:00 PM US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JUN 1.5%   1.3%
8:00 PM US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN -1.7% -1.4% -1.1%
9:00 PM US JOLTs Job Openings JUL 9.582M   9.57M
9:00 PM US CB Consumer Confidence AUG 117 116 116
Wednesday, 30 August 2023 Previous Consensus Forecast
3:30 AM US API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/25 -2.418M    
12:00 PM JP Consumer Confidence AUG 37.1   37.2
3:30 PM GB BoE Consumer Credit JUL £1.661B £1.5B £1.2B
3:30 PM GB Mortgage Lending JUL £0.136B   £0.5B
3:30 PM GB Mortgage Approvals JUL 54.662K 51K 55.7K
6:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate AUG/25 7.31%    
7:00 PM DE Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG 6.2% 6.0% 6.1%
7:00 PM DE Inflation Rate MoM Prel AUG 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
7:15 PM US ADP Employment Change AUG 324K 195K 210K
7:30 PM US Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL $-87.84B   $ -94.0B
7:30 PM US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2 4.1% 2.2% 2.2%
7:30 PM US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2 -5.9%   -5.0%
7:30 PM US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2 2.0% 2.4% 2.4%
9:00 PM US Pending Home Sales MoM JUL 0.3%   -0.4%
9:00 PM US Pending Home Sales YoY JUL -15.6%   -12.0%
9:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/25 1.467M    
9:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change AUG/25 -6.135M    
Thursday, 31 August 2023 Previous Consensus Forecast
6:50 AM JP Industrial Production MoM Prel JUL 2.4% -1.4% -1.2%
6:50 AM JP Retail Sales YoY JUL 5.9% 5.4% 5.1%
8:30 AM CN NBS Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.3 49.5 49.5
8:30 AM CN NBS Non Manufacturing PMI AUG 51.5   51
8:30 AM JP BoJ Nakamura Speech       
12:00 PM JP Housing Starts YoY JUL -4.8% -0.8% -1.4%
1:00 PM DE Retail Sales MoM JUL -0.8% 0.3% 0.3%
1:00 PM DE Retail Sales YoY JUL -1.6% -1.5% -0.9%
2:15 PM GB BoE Pill Speech       
2:55 PM DE Unemployed Persons AUG 2.604M   2.619M
2:55 PM DE Unemployment Change AUG -4K 10K 15.0K
2:55 PM DE Unemployment Rate AUG 5.6% 5.6% 5.7%
7:30 PM US Core PCE Price Index MoM JUL 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
7:30 PM US Personal Income MoM JUL 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
7:30 PM US Personal Spending MoM JUL 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
7:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims AUG/26 230K 235K 236.0K
7:30 PM US PCE Price Index YoY JUL 3.0% 3.3% 3.2%
7:30 PM US PCE Price Index MoM JUL 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
8:00 PM US Fed Collins Speech       
8:45 PM US Chicago PMI AUG 42.8 44 45
  GB Nationwide Housing Prices YoY AUG -3.8%   -4.9%
  GB Nationwide Housing Prices MoM AUG -0.2%   -0.2%
Friday, 01 September 2023 Previous Consensus Forecast
7:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 49.6   49.7
8:45 AM CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.2 49.4 49.3
11:00 AM ID Inflation Rate YoY AUG 3.1% 3.4% 3.0%
2:55 PM DE HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 38.8 39.1 39.1
3:30 PM GB S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 45.3 42.5 42.5
7:30 PM US Non Farm Payrolls AUG 187K 170K 180.0K
7:30 PM US Unemployment Rate AUG 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
7:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings YoY AUG 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
7:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings MoM AUG 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
7:30 PM US Participation Rate AUG 62.6%   62.6%
8:45 PM US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 49 47 47
9:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing PMI AUG 46.4 47 47
9:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing Employment AUG 44.4   46

Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)

Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.

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