Cermati Invest Weekly Update 30 Oktober 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | -1.32% | 6,758.79 |
| IDX LQ45 | -2.08% | 892.92 |
| IDX 30 | -2.38% | 459.22 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -2.60% | 6,988.84 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -2.06% | 3,431.37 |
| USD/IDR | 0.26% | 15,911.20 |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
Market Review
Kapitalisasi bursa kembali mengalami penurunan, dan investor asing masih mencatatkan nett sell selama perdagangan pekan lalu. Dari Amerika melaporkan data ekonomi yang membaik, dan dampaknya terhadap kebijakan dari Bank Sentral Amerika.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 1.28% | 2,006.38 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -4.05% | 85.16 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | 0.11% | 3,775 |
| Natural Gas | 18.66% | 3.44 |
| Newcastle Coal | 1.09% | 139.50 |
| Nickel | -1.20% | 18,365 |
| Tin | -0.33% | 24,902 |
| Copper | 1.86% | 8,096 |
| Aluminium | 2.27% | 2,231 |
| US Soybeans | 1.32% | 1,319.50 |
| Silver | -1.10% | 23.25 |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
Economic Data
Selama sepekan kemarin kapitalisasi pasar Bursa tercatat mengalami penurunan sebesar 0.84% menjadi Rp10,53 triliun dari Rp10,61 triliun pada pekan sebelumnya. Rata-rata nilai transaksi harian Bursa juga terpantau mengalami penurunan 23.38% menjadi Rp9,05 triliun dari Rp11,81 triliun pada penutupan pekan lalu. Investor asing masih mencatatkan net sell dengan nilai Rp2,87 triliun di pasar reguler. Net sell terbesar terjadi pada saham-saham bank big cap, yaitu BBRI, BBCA, dan BMRI. IHSG terbilang bergerak cukup volatil dalam sepekan terakhir.
Pekan lalu, Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani mengungkapkan bahwa, pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia pada 2023 akan mencapai 5.1%. Hal ini tentunya lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian global yang menurut prediksi IMF akan mencapai 2.9%. Angka itu lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian negara berkembang yang diprediksi IMF akan mencapai 4%. Realisasi Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) per September 2023 masih melanjutkan tren positif. APBN surplus sebesar Rp67,7 triliun atau 0.32% terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Sementara itu keseimbangan primer masih surplus Rp389,7 triliun. Surplus APBN ditopang oleh penerimaan negara sebesar Rp2.035,6 triliun atau tumbuh 3.1% year on year. Adapun belanja negara tumbuh 2.8% year on year menjadi Rp1.967,9 triliun.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -2.14% | 32,417.59 |
| S&P 500 | -2.53% | 4,117.37 |
| FTSE 100 | -1.50% | 7,291.28 |
| DAX | -0.75% | 14,687.41 |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.86% | 30,991.69 |
| Hang Seng | 1.33% | 17,400.00 |
| Shanghai | 1.16% | 3,017.78 |
| KOSPI | -3.04% | 2,302.81 |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
Regional Info
Pada Kamis malam pekan lalu waktu Indonesia, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Amerika Serikat (AS) kuartal III-2023 masih tumbuh kencang 4.9% (yoy), tertinggi sejak kuartal IV-2022 atau hampir dua tahun. Ini jauh lebih tinggi dari perkiraan para analis sebesar 4%. Selain itu, permintaan dari sektor manufaktur AS juga tumbuh 4.7% pada September, dari kontraksi 0.1% pada Agustus 2023. Sementara data klaim pengangguran mingguan untuk periode pekan yang berakhir 21 Oktober 2023 tercatat naik 10.000 menjadi 210.000. Namun, klaim pengangguran masih dalam kisaran terendah dalam delapan bulan terakhir. Data-data ekonomi AS yang membaik ini membuat pelaku pasar khawatir, karena, inflasi AS masih sulit turun sehingga bank sentral AS (Federal Reserve/The Fed) masih bisa hawkish. Ketua The Fed, Jerome Powell, mengatakan pekan lalu bahwa bank sentral mungkin perlu mempertahankan kenaikan suku bunga untuk mengembalikan inflasi ke tingkat target 2%.
Di tengah kekhawatiran ketegangan di Israel dan Gaza yang dapat menyebar menjadi konflik yang lebih luas mengakibatkan terganggunya pasokan minyak mentah global. Harga minyak melonjak lebih dari US$ 2 per barel setelah militer AS menyerang sasaran Iran di Suriah. Kemudian harga sempat berubah menjadi negatif karena pasar mencerna berbagai laporan mengenai pembicaraan mediasi antara kelompok militan Hamas dan Israel yang dipimpin oleh Qatar yang berkoordinasi dengan AS.
Dari Jepang, pekan lalu merilis data inflasinya, dalam rilis tersebut yang menjadi perhatian investor adalah inflasi inti Jepang, di mana pada bulan September inflasi inti Jepang naik menjadi 2.7% jika dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya yang hanya sebesar 2.5%. Dengan kenaikan ini akan semakin memberikan peringatan bagi Bank of Japan untuk mengakhiri suku bunga negatifnya.
Insight 2023 4th Quarter, 5th week
IHSG, sudah 1 bulan oversold, walau akhir pekan ditutup naik ke 6758.79, areanya masih down trend. Pivot IHSG ada di 6828, ini titik yang menentukan sampai akhir Desember 2023. IHSG akan rebound di atas angka tersebut untuk menuju 7046.
RUPIAH, pekan lalu mencatat 15964 sebagai nilai tukar tertinggi yang bahkan tertinggi sepanjang 1 tahun terakhir. Jika terus melemah seperti ini, rupiah dapat mencapai 16738. Kalaupun pekan ini ada penguatan, sebatas 15868 dan 15728 saja.
EMAS, sejak awal Oktober 2023 naik signifikan dari harga 1810 ke 2010 US dollar per troy ounce. Walau pekan lalu sempat terkoreksi ke 1953 US dollar, tetapi segera naik kembali untuk menuju 2075 US dollar per troy ounce. Koreksi pekan ini sebatas 1966 US dollar.
Dalam rupiah, logam mulia berada di antara 994252 — 1116763 rupiah per gram, sedangkan emas perhiasan berada di kisaran 745689—837572 rupiah per gram. November 2023, harga emas akan lebih tinggi lagi.
CERMATI, sektor infrastruktur, non cyclicals, transportasi, cyclicals & basic industry. Apabila IHSG rebound dan bertahan di atas 6828, maka reksa dana dengan benchmark indeks Sri Kehati dan Bisnis 27 ikut rebound.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1395.87 | -1.30% | -1.21% | -0.33% | 1.73% | 1.41% | 13.73% | 39.59% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.01 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1346.93 | -3.24% | -1.46% | 1.80% | 5.97% | 2.81% | 52.93% | 34.69% | 25 Sep 2017 | 61.82 B |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1182.12 | -3.36% | -4.10% | -1.47% | 1.25% | 0.10% | 14.19% | 18.21% | 8 Sep 2016 | 101.01 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 8953.22 | -3.65% | -3.86% | -1.29% | 0.81% | -0.45% | 22.55% | 795.32% | 3 Jun 2002 | 180.42 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3074.69 | -4.41% | -1.47% | 1.33% | 0.41% | -8.16% | 36.04% | 207.47% | 22 Apr 2008 | 98.47 B |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1813.51 | -4.70% | -1.94% | -0.67% | 5.83% | -0.47% | 38.95% | 81.35% | 21 Dec 2017 | 30.17 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1716.22 | -5.72% | 0.09% | 7.72% | 7.88% | 2.77% | 48.25% | 71.62% | 28 Dec 2018 | 305.60 B |
| Trim Kombinasi 2 | 2639.74 | -5.75% | -0.32% | 7.20% | 6.64% | 1.89% | 31.41% | 163.97% | 10 Nov 2006 | 25.27 B |
| Trim Syariah Berimbang | 3036.37 | -7.23% | -2.01% | 1.66% | 3.91% | -0.69% | 22.01% | 203.64% | 27 Dec 2006 | 20.82 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1413.54 | 0.41% | 1.23% | 2.40% | 3.78% | 4.50% | 12.93% | 41.35% | 23 Dec 2016 | 626.70 B |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1603.43 | 0.38% | 1.07% | 2.21% | 3.67% | 4.47% | 13.14% | 60.34% | 8 Jun 2015 | 168.85 B |
| Hpam Ultima Money Market | 1518.36 | 0.36% | 1.06% | 2.15% | 3.70% | 4.41% | 14.32% | 51.84% | 10 Jun 2015 | 486.41 B |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1357.96 | 0.36% | 1.06% | 2.12% | 3.33% | 3.75% | 9.39% | 35.80% | 8 Sep 2016 | 50.64 B |
| Trim Kas 2 Kelas A | 1788.02 | 0.35% | 1.08% | 2.15% | 3.46% | 4.18% | 12.65% | 78.80% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.90 T |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1342.34 | 0.35% | 1.07% | 2.15% | 3.48% | 4.21% | 11.57% | 34.23% | 30 Dec 2016 | 428.69 B |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1521.95 | 0.34% | 1.11% | 2.25% | 3.65% | 4.41% | 12.82% | 52.20% | 10 Sep 2015 | 131.17 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1483.30 | 0.34% | 0.96% | 2.30% | 3.63% | 4.14% | 13.21% | 48.33% | 13 Apr 2018 | 2.66 B |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1135.16 | 0.33% | 1.02% | 2.04% | 3.31% | 3.96% | 10.35% | 13.52% | 12 Jul 2016 | 166.48 B |
| Cipta Dana Kas Syariah | 1173.88 | 0.33% | 0.79% | 1.60% | 2.93% | 3.18% | 8.46% | 17.39% | 28 Jan 2019 | 8.54 B |
| Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang Iii | 1654.32 | 0.32% | 1.00% | 2.07% | 3.30% | 3.99% | 11.32% | 65.43% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.31 T |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1590.08 | 0.31% | 0.94% | 2.02% | 3.31% | 4.15% | 12.67% | 59.01% | 12 Jun 2015 | 3.41 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1136.46 | 1.09% | 0.93% | 2.49% | 4.69% | 5.83% | 19.36% | 13.65% | 23 May 2019 | 4.96 T |
| Uobam Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 944.66 | 0.94% | -0.82% | -0.11% | -0.86% | 4.03% | - | -5.53% | 12 Jan 2021 | 78.52 B |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4662.01 | 0.36% | 1.35% | 3.12% | 5.55% | 6.78% | 22.80% | 366.20% | 13 Jan 2005 | 2.02 T |
| Trim Dana Tetap 2 | 3012.04 | 0.24% | 1.12% | 2.64% | 3.64% | 5.28% | 15.85% | 201.20% | 13 May 2008 | 462.87 B |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1021.38 | -0.43% | -2.44% | -0.58% | 2.32% | 6.15% | - | 2.14% | 1 Sep 2022 | 3.79 B |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1086.56 | -0.90% | -1.59% | 2.86% | 4.00% | 7.35% | - | 8.66% | 21 Oct 2020 | 8.94 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1551.11 | -1.15% | -1.83% | 1.69% | 4.39% | 6.37% | 14.78% | 55.11% | 16 Aug 2016 | 401.86 B |
| Eastspring Investments Idr High Grade Kelas A | 1581.16 | -1.24% | -3.66% | -1.53% | 1.57% | 7.09% | 8.14% | 58.12% | 9 Jan 2013 | 34.27 B |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1486.20 | -1.31% | -3.15% | -0.72% | 2.56% | 6.39% | 10.40% | 48.62% | 18 May 2016 | 18.58 B |
| Danareksa Brawijaya Abadi Pendapatan Tetap | 1276.11 | -1.51% | -4.41% | -2.06% | 0.53% | 7.26% | 11.60% | 27.61% | 25 Feb 2019 | 12.71 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2414.16 | -1.54% | -3.39% | -1.29% | 2.12% | 6.56% | 9.66% | 141.42% | 8 Dec 2011 | 182.12 B |
| Eastspring Idr Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1627.81 | -1.58% | -3.66% | -1.00% | 1.67% | 6.05% | 10.84% | 62.78% | 16 Mar 2015 | 144.48 B |
| Bni-Am Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1561.00 | -1.62% | -3.46% | -0.46% | 3.15% | 7.19% | 13.76% | 56.10% | 16 Jun 2016 | 76.77 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2916.77 | -3.41% | -7.41% | 1.64% | 5.39% | -0.79% | 66.19% | 191.68% | 4 Dec 2018 | 71.04 B |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1147.85 | -4.21% | -5.43% | -3.94% | 3.99% | -0.92% | 35.68% | 14.78% | 29 Mar 2018 | 74.82 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3097.81 | -4.39% | -3.89% | -1.10% | 0.79% | -3.08% | 30.87% | 209.78% | 19 Oct 2006 | 540.43 B |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1517.25 | -4.41% | -2.97% | 0.30% | 2.50% | -0.88% | 31.93% | 51.73% | 29 Aug 2012 | 90.17 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 60932.22 | -4.45% | -3.61% | -1.60% | -0.27% | -3.48% | 21.90% | 5993.22% | 16 Dec 1996 | 2.20 T |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 3943.98 | -4.64% | -4.00% | 0.77% | 2.92% | -2.29% | 27.32% | 294.40% | 7 Jun 2007 | 328.23 B |
| Hpam Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2615.12 | -4.65% | 6.27% | 5.92% | 5.74% | -0.11% | 33.33% | 161.51% | 2 Nov 2009 | 694.56 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 17290.36 | -5.00% | -7.19% | -2.09% | 0.74% | -2.67% | 35.39% | 1629.04% | 9 Jul 1999 | 107.73 B |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 12647.39 | -5.41% | -4.05% | -6.84% | -8.74% | -16.89% | 4.98% | 1164.74% | 27 May 1997 | 73.74 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4219.12 | -5.50% | -3.83% | 3.28% | 8.51% | -0.87% | 52.58% | 321.91% | 18 Apr 2008 | 192.83 B |
| Principal Total Return Equity Fund Kelas O | 3264.33 | -5.65% | -5.47% | -3.87% | -2.59% | -8.25% | 10.94% | 226.43% | 1 Jul 2005 | 37.95 B |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1106.90 | -5.68% | -6.20% | -4.02% | 5.55% | -1.99% | 30.45% | 10.69% | 8 Jun 2018 | 740.11 B |
| Trim Kapital | 11643.57 | -5.91% | -4.97% | 0.82% | 6.36% | -2.61% | 47.78% | 1064.36% | 19 Mar 1997 | 279.48 B |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2171.50 | -6.57% | -0.02% | 8.89% | 8.22% | 2.57% | 44.48% | 117.15% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.07 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Oktober 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 30 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:00 PM | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q3 | 0.00% | -0.30% | -0.20% |
| 4:00 PM | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q3 | -0.20% | -0.70% | |
| 4:30 PM | GB | BoE Consumer Credit SEP | £1.644B | £1.4B | £1.1B |
| 8:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate YoY Prel OCT | 4.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 8:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate MoM Prel OCT | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 9:30 PM | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index OCT | -18.10 | -15.00 | |
| Tuesday, 31 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Unemployment Rate SEP | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.70% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Retail Sales YoY SEP | 7.00% | 5.90% | 6.20% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI OCT | 50.20 | 50.40 | 50.50 |
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI OCT | 51.70 | 52.00 | |
| 10:00 AM | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| 10:00 AM | JP | BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report | |||
| 12:00 PM | JP | Housing Starts YoY SEP | -9.40% | -4.70% | -3.80% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Retail Sales MoM SEP | -1.20% | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ Q3 | 1.00% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
| 8:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY AUG | 0.10% | 1.60% | 0.30% |
| 8:45 PM | US | Chicago PMI OCT | 44.10 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
| 9:00 PM | US | CB Consumer Confidence OCT | 103.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| Wednesday, 01 November 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final OCT | 48.5 | 48.5 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Manufacturing PMI OCT | 50.6 | 50.8 | 50.7 |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Inflation Rate YoY OCT | 2.28% | 2.60% | 2.40% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM OCT | 0.00% | -0.10% | |
| 4:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final OCT | 44.3 | 45.2 | 45.2 |
| 7:15 PM | US | ADP Employment Change OCT | 89K | 150K | 65K |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final OCT | 49.8 | 50 | 50 |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI OCT | 49 | 49 | 49.5 |
| 9:00 PM | US | JOLTs Job Openings SEP | 9.61M | 9.2M | 9.2M |
| Thursday, 02 November 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| 1:30 AM | US | Fed Press Conference | |||
| 3:55 PM | DE | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final OCT | 39.6 | 40.7 | 40.7 |
| 3:55 PM | DE | Unemployment Rate OCT | 5.70% | 5.80% | 5.80% |
| 7:00 PM | GB | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims OCT/28 | 210K | 210K | 217.0K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel Q3 | 3.50% | 4.00% | 3.60% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel Q3 | 2.20% | 0.80% | 1.90% |
| 9:00 PM | US | Factory Orders MoM SEP | 1.20% | 1.90% | 0.80% |
| Friday, 03 November 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Services PMI OCT | 50.2 | 50.4 | |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Balance of Trade SEP | €16.6B | €16.3B | € 18B |
| 4:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final OCT | 49.3 | 49.2 | 49.2 |
| 7:30 PM | US | Non Farm Payrolls OCT | 336K | 188K | 190K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Unemployment Rate OCT | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.80% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM OCT | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI OCT | 53.6 | 53 | 53.7 |
| CN | Current Account Prel Q3 | $64.7B | $69.0B | ||
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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