Cermati Invest Weekly Update 31 Juli 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 0.28% | 6,900.23 |
| IDX LQ45 | -0.18% | 961.66 |
| IDX 30 | -0.20% | 499.60 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -0.24% | 7,593.66 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -0.31% | 3,703.58 |
| USD/IDR | 0.58% | 15,108 |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
Market Review
Pasar keuangan Indonesia pada pekan lalu mencatatkan kinerja beragam, di mana Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terpantau cerah, namun untuk rupiah terpantau melemah dan Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) terpantau dilepas oleh investor. Bursa saham Wall Street pada perdagangan pekan lalu terpantau positif di tengah ketidakpastian bank sentral AS (Federal Reserve/The Fed) yang masih akan mempertahankan sikap yang lebih kuat terhadap peningkatan suku bunga ( hawkish).
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -0.05% | 1,959.20 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 4.67% | 80.67 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -0.72% | 4,006 |
| Natural Gas | -2.36% | 2.64 |
| Newcastle Coal | 4.51% | 139.00 |
| Nickel | 7.50% | 22,327 |
| Tin | 0.86% | 28,740 |
| Copper | 2.66% | 8,677 |
| Aluminium | 1.22% | 2,232 |
| US Soybeans | -1.36% | 1,382.75 |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
Economic Data
Investor asing tercatat melakukan aksi beli bersih (net buy)mencapai Rp 997,42 miliar di seluruh pasar sepanjang pekan lalu. Pada pekan lalu, Bank Indonesia (BI) telah mengumumkan kebijakan suku bunga terbarunya. Hasil dari Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) memutuskan untuk tetap menahan suku bunga di level 5,75%.
Pada pekan ini dari dalam negeri, data inflasi periode Juli 2023 juga akan dirilis. Sebagai catatan, inflasi RI sudah jauh melandai ke 3,52% (yoy) pada Juni sementara inflasi inti tercatat 2,58% (yoy). Perlu dicatat, angka inflasi umum dan inti pada Mei 2023 telah sesuai dengan target BI dalam kisaran 2% - 4%. Apabila inflasi semakin melandai akan memberikan gambaran positif pada prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang juga akan rilis pada pekan depan untuk periode kuartal II-2023.
Di lain sisi, pasar juga akan memantau dampak dari realisasi kebijakan devisa hasil ekspor (DHE), di mana pada 1 Agustus besok, pengetatan kebijakan DHE akan berlaku. Dengan adanya kebijakan DHE ini, diharapkan bahwa cadangan devisa (cadev) nasional akan tertopang dan tentunya nilai tukar rupiah diharapkan dapat diuntungkan dari kebijakan DHE ini.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | 0.66% | 35,459.29 |
| S&P 500 | 1.01% | 4,582.23 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.40% | 7,694.27 |
| DAX | 1.81% | 16,469.75 |
| Nikkei 225 | 1.43% | 32,766.50 |
| Hang Seng | 4.45% | 19,923.50 |
| Shanghai | 3.42% | 3,275.93 |
| KOSPI | -0.06% | 2,608.32 |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
Regional Info
Pada Jumat lalu, menguatnya Wall Street ditopang oleh data indeks harga Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). Indeks ini menurun ke 3% (year-on-year/yoy) pada Juni 2023. Angka tersebut adalah yang terendah sejak Maret 2021. Secara bulanan (month-to-month/mtm), indeks naik tipis 0,2% pada Juni, dari 0,2% pada Mei. Indeks melemah karena turunnya harga barang tetapi harga gas yang masih naik. Pengeluaran untuk energi menjadi komponen yang paling anjlok yakni sebesar 18,9% (yoy). PCE inti menjadi pertimbangan utama bank sentral AS The Federal Reserve (The Fed) dalam menentukan kebijakan moneternya. Dengan melandai PCE dan PCE inti maka ada harapan The Fed melunak pada September mendatang.
Di lain sisi, pasar juga masih memantau laporan kinerja keuangan perusahaan pada titik tengah musim pendapatan kuartal II-2023 di S&P 500. Sejauh ini, 51% perusahaan di S&P 500 telah melaporkan hasil aktual untuk kuartal II-2023 hingga akhir pekan lalu. Dari perusahaan tersebut, 80% telah melaporkan laba per saham aktual di atas perkiraan, yaitu di atas rata-rata 5 tahun sebesar 77% dan di atas rata-rata 10 tahun sebesar 73%.
Untuk pekan ini, rilis data ekonomi cukup penting datang dari Jepang dan China. Di Jepang, data penjualan ritel dan indeks keyakinan konsumen (IKK) akan dirilis. China juga akan merilis data ekonomi penting yakni data aktivitas manufaktur yang tergambarkan pada Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI). Untuk hari ini, PMI manufaktur yang akan dirilis yakni versi resmi (NBS).
Insight 2023 3rd Quarter, 5th week
IHSG, pekan lalu sempat naik ke 6966.17, kemudian tutup di 6900.23. Masih belum berhasil mendobrak resistance 6970, titik penting untuk melanjutkan uptrend. Masih ada kesempatan. Sementara range IHSG pekan ini 6832—6976.
Rupiah, statistik Bank Indonesia, posisi Rupiah berada di 15078.01(Jual) dan 14927.99 (Beli) per 1 US Dollar. Pekan ini, Rupiah bergerak dalam rentang 15000—15160 terhadap 1 Dollar Amerika (USD).
Emas, pekan lalu harga emas dunia sempat naik ke 1982.26 per t’oz, tetapi ditutup koreksi ke 1959.34 per t’oz. Pekan ini bergerak dalam rentang 1923.15—1982.26 per t’oz. Dalam kurs rupiah, berkisar 937458—966272 per gram.
Tunggu Indeks Composite (IHSG) rebound dan bergerak ke atas 6970, disitulah kesempatan menambah portfolio Reksa Dana Saham, terutama yang berbasis indeks atau top 10 stock universe dari indeks Srikehati, MNC36, FTSE Indonesia, MSCI Indonesia yang performanya jauh melebihi perforama IHSG sejak awal 2022.
USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2022
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9327.1 | 0.30% | 2.74% | 5.02% | 5.69% | 28.04% | 26.44% | 832.71% | 3-Jun-02 | 367.44M |
| Principal Balanced Strategic Plus | 1276.06 | 0.78% | 1.66% | 5.94% | 7.20% | 23.01% | 4.57% | 27.61% | 28-May-12 | 7.99M |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1859.07 | 1.14% | 1.26% | 8.49% | 3.76% | 50.00% | 80.73% | 85.91% | 21-Dec-17 | 28.99M |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1235.01 | 1.55% | 2.53% | 5.78% | 7.14% | 19.29% | 18.90% | 23.50% | 8-Sep-16 | 136.39M |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1369.76 | 3.64% | 2.55% | 7.76% | 8.05% | 55.40% | 32.29% | 36.98% | 25-Sep-17 | 59.18M |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2661.5 | 4.11% | 6.56% | 7.52% | 4.71% | 31.35% | 10.69% | 166.15% | 10-Nov-06 | 23.54M |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3116.19 | 3.09% | 2.71% | 6.64% | 2.35% | 24.00% | 22.99% | 211.62% | 27-Dec-06 | 19.84M |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1724.44 | 4.42% | 6.80% | 8.40% | 3.30% | 49.94% | - | 72.44% | 28-Dec-18 | 288.64M |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1586.51 | 0.40% | 1.12% | 2.58% | 4.33% | 13.17% | 27.32% | 58.65% | 8-Jun-15 | 190.18M |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1505.39 | 0.39% | 1.12% | 2.52% | 3.97% | 13.11% | 26.77% | 50.54% | 10-Sep-15 | 164.78M |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1502.59 | 0.35% | 1.08% | 2.62% | 4.24% | 14.69% | 29.39% | 50.26% | 10-Jun-15 | 753.19M |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1469.4 | 0.41% | 1.33% | 2.66% | 3.99% | 13.53% | 30.01% | 46.94% | 13-Apr-18 | 2.95M |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1396.57 | 0.39% | 1.16% | 2.54% | 4.04% | 13.09% | 28.30% | 39.66% | 23-Dec-16 | 619.05M |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1575.48 | 0.35% | 1.04% | 2.36% | 4.07% | 13.20% | 27.42% | 57.55% | 12-Jun-15 | 4.01T |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1769.12 | 0.36% | 1.05% | 2.36% | 3.97% | 12.77% | 24.82% | 76.91% | 8-Apr-08 | 3.32T |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Bahana Mes Syariah Fund Kelas G | 1490.44 | 0.17% | 3.17% | 4.80% | 7.25% | 17.22% | 37.98% | 49.04% | 11-Nov-16 | 607.12M |
| Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima | 2923.63 | 0.16% | 1.81% | 3.72% | 5.50% | 12.58% | 29.21% | 214.39% | 20-Dec-06 | 1.29T |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Nirwasita | 1613.48 | 0.31% | 2.98% | 6.62% | 10.71% | 21.10% | 46.92% | 61.35% | 16-Jun-16 | 68.11M |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1578.2 | 0.20% | 3.45% | 6.22% | 7.76% | 20.85% | 48.63% | 57.82% | 16-Aug-16 | 316.02M |
| BNI-AM Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1056.62 | -0.01% | 1.78% | 4.72% | - | - | - | 7.49% | 1-Sep-22 | 5.46M |
| Danakita Obligasi Negara | 1069.02 | -0.12% | 1.84% | 3.75% | 7.02% | - | - | 6.90% | 26-Mar-21 | 54.4M |
| Eastspring IDR Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1685.7 | 0.19% | 2.58% | 5.28% | 9.16% | 17.86% | 40.80% | 68.57% | 16-Mar-15 | 131.92M |
| Eastspring Investments IDR High Grade Kelas A | 1636.1 | 0.01% | 2.03% | 5.10% | 9.55% | 14.70% | 36.06% | 63.61% | 9-Jan-13 | 25.72M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1430.31 | 0.30% | 3.08% | 4.66% | 6.09% | 16.82% | 38.11% | 43.03% | 17-Apr-17 | 209.79M |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1531.2 | 0.06% | 2.37% | 5.66% | 9.39% | 16.90% | 40.22% | 53.12% | 18-May-16 | 21.06M |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4600.84 | 0.58% | 1.74% | 4.17% | 7.25% | 24.07% | 39.10% | 360.08% | 13-Jan-05 | 1.61T |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1103.56 | -0.06% | 4.37% | 5.63% | 7.58% | - | - | 10.36% | 21-Oct-20 | 3.39M |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2494.32 | 0.13% | 2.12% | 5.52% | 9.46% | 15.90% | 40.90% | 149.43% | 8-Dec-11 | 243.11M |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1137.46 | 0.52% | 1.54% | 3.75% | 6.26% | 19.66% | - | 31.17% | 23-May-19 | 3.84T |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3235.99 | 0.17% | 2.92% | 5.29% | 3.96% | 35.63% | 9.76% | 223.60% | 19-Oct-06 | 661.93M |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1044.36 | 0.61% | 3.67% | 7.35% | 4.74% | - | - | 4.44% | 15-Dec-21 | 46.2M |
| BNI-AM Indeks IDX Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1154.46 | 1.85% | 0.65% | 4.56% | 5.96% | - | - | 15.45% | 27-Jan-22 | 810.36Jt |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18665.55 | 2.41% | 5.14% | 8.76% | 10.46% | 46.14% | 24.50% | 2627.57% | 9-Jul-99 | 107.3M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 3162.39 | 4.33% | 9.82% | 14.26% | 16.93% | 79.03% | - | 216.24% | 4-Dec-18 | 51.63M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2677.82 | 4.69% | 11.48% | 14.72% | 11.53% | 72.60% | - | 167.78% | 5-Sep-18 | 20.57M |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1179.69 | 1.13% | 1.10% | 7.26% | 11.57% | 33.16% | - | 17.97% | 17-Oct-18 | 11.27M |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1571.05 | 2.21% | 3.52% | 6.13% | 6.47% | 34.68% | 12.41% | 57.10% | 29-Aug-12 | 127.36M |
| Eastspring Investments Value Discovery Kelas A | 1358.11 | 1.85% | 2.59% | 3.62% | -0.35% | 33.14% | 6.35% | 35.81% | 29-May-13 | 475.61M |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2257.59 | 5.84% | 9.68% | 9.79% | 10.18% | 47.16% | -10.18% | 134.58% | 18-Oct-11 | 995.38M |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4124.58 | 2.15% | 5.35% | 7.63% | 4.85% | 30.23% | 3.08% | 312.46% | 7-Jun-07 | 360.97M |
| Syailendra MSCI Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1189.36 | 1.79% | 3.11% | 13.41% | 15.52% | 41.07% | 17.62% | 18.94% | 8-Jun-18 | 743.79M |
| TRIM Kapital | 12298.08 | 2.32% | 6.00% | 12.34% | 10.34% | 50.92% | 12.97% | 1474.13% | 19-Mar-97 | 255.84M |
| TRIM Kapital Plus | 4402.49 | 2.98% | 7.26% | 13.23% | 10.67% | 57.74% | 20.34% | 340.25% | 18-Apr-08 | 168.59M |
| Trimegah FTSE Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1287.15 | 0.52% | 1.36% | 8.92% | 16.05% | - | - | 28.72% | 3-Nov-20 | 33.13M |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
| Inception | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenis | Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Saham | Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.98 | 2.24% | 4.94% | 1.88% | -5.81% | -18.36% | -14.12% | -1.65% | 28-Oct-16 | 6.27Jt |
| Saham | Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.67 | 3.41% | 4.93% | -4.19% | -13.93% | -38.75% | - | -32.91% | 15-Jun-20 | 9.72Jt |
| Pendapatan Tetap | Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.92 | -0.18% | -0.79% | 0.28% | -0.43% | - | - | -7.86% | 8-Mar-21 | 1.03Jt |
Provided by AIT, last update 28 Juli 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 31 July 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Retail Sales YoY JUN | 5.70% | 5.90% | 5.50% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI JUL | 49 | 49.2 | 48.9 |
| 12:00 PM | JP | Housing Starts YoY JUN | 3.50% | -0.20% | -0.70% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Retail Sales YoY JUN | -3.60% | -2.70% | -4.20% |
| 3:30 PM | GB | Mortgage Approvals JUN | 50.524K | 49K | 47.0K |
| 8:45 PM | US | Chicago PMI JUL | 41.5 | 43 | 43 |
| 9:30 PM | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUL | -23.2 | -18 | |
| Tuesday, 01 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Unemployment Rate JUN | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.60% |
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUL | 49.8 | 49.4 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUL | 50.5 | 50.3 | 50.1 |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 3.52% | 3.11% | 3.20% |
| 1:00 PM | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUL | 52.6 | 52 | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JUL | -3.50% | -3.80% | -4.00% |
| 2:55 PM | DE | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final JUL | 40.6 | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final JUL | 46.5 | 45 | 45 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JUL | 46.3 | 49 | 49 |
| 9:00 PM | US | JOLTs Job Openings JUN | 9.824M | 9.62M | 9.5M |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI JUL | 46 | 46.8 | 48 |
| Wednesday, 02 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change JUL/28 | 1.319M | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 6:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JUL/28 | 6.87% | ||
| 7:15 PM | US | ADP Employment Change JUL | 497K | 188K | 210.0K |
| 11:00 PM | RU | Unemployment Rate JUN | 3.20% | 3.20% | 3.20% |
| Thursday, 03 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Services PMI Final JUL | 54 | 53.9 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Services PMI JUL | 53.9 | 52 | |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Balance of Trade JUN | €14.4B | €15B | € 19B |
| 2:55 PM | DE | HCOB Services PMI Final JUL | 54.1 | 52 | 52 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final JUL | 53.7 | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| 6:00 PM | GB | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 5.00% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims JUL/29 | 221K | 227K | 225.0K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel Q2 | -2.10% | 2.00% | 1.00% |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI JUL | 53.9 | 53 | 52 |
| Friday, 04 August 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Factory Orders MoM JUN | 6.40% | -1.50% | -2.00% |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI JUL | 48.9 | 48 | 48.4 |
| 7:30 PM | US | Non Farm Payrolls JUL | 209K | 200K | 190K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Unemployment Rate JUL | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% |
| CN | Current Account Prel Q2 | $81.5B | $85.0B | ||
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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