Cermati Invest Weekly Update 4 Maret 2024
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 0.23% | 7,311.91 |
| IDX LQ45 | -0.63% | 987.90 |
| IDX 30 | -0.57% | 501.08 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -0.32% | 7,774.89 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -0.12% | 3,810.49 |
| USD/IDR | 0.67% | 15,681.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 2.34% | 2,083.80 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 4.30% | 79.76 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | 2.93% | 3,966 |
| Natural Gas | 14.29% | 1.83 |
| Newcastle Coal | 9.72% | 131.00 |
| Nickel | 1.56% | 17,769 |
| Tin | 0.66% | 26,556 |
| Copper | -0.50% | 8,525 |
| Aluminium | 2.75% | 2,240 |
| US Soybeans | 0.71% | 1,149.88 |
| Silver | 1.23% | 23.38 |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.11% | 39,087.38 |
| S&P 500 | 0.95% | 5,137.08 |
| FTSE 100 | -0.31% | 7,682.50 |
| DAX | 1.81% | 17,735.00 |
| Nikkei 225 | 2.15% | 39,940.00 |
| Hang Seng | -0.82% | 16,589.44 |
| Shanghai | 0.74% | 3,027.02 |
| KOSPI | -0.95% | 2,642.36 |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
Ulasan Pasar
IHSG dan Saham
Pekan ini masih sama, IHSG bergerak sideways dalam area 7251 (support 1) — 7403 (resistance 1). Untuk IHSG sendiri, masih tetap potensi “Double Top” yang artinya potensi koreksi apabila tidak mampu melangkah lebih tinggi melewati peak / highest / top sebelumnya, yaitu 7403.6 (R1). IHSG perlu waktu untuk naik mencapai 7591.75 (R1) dan 7708.07 (R2).
Tim analis Cermati Invest melihat sejak awal 2024, Indeks konstituen terbaik dan performanya di atas IHSG adalah Indeks Bank15, Srikehati, Bisnis 27, FTSE Indonesia, MSCI Indonesia, LQ45, dan IDX30. Sehingga Saham dengan bobot terbesar di masing-masing Indeks tersebut, dapat dicermati.
Rupiah Mau Ke Mana
Pekan lalu, Rupiah beranjak melemah menembus resisten yang diprediksikan, yaitu 15732 Rupiah per 1 dolar Amerika. Sehingga bila dilihat arahnya, kali ini Rupiah akan melemah menuju 15834 - 15964 per 1 dolar Amerika.
Emas & Kripto, Menarik
Jika pada pasar kripto, Bitcoin dan Etherium sudah lebih dulu naik signifikan selama beberapa pekan terakhir, kali ini emas dunia tidak mau ketinggalan.
Secara teknikal, emas dunia pekan lalu akhirnya naik menyentuh Golden Ratio (0.618) Fibonacci retracement, yaitu 2081 US dolar per troy ounce. Pekan depan menentukan, emas dunia akan segera menuju 2111—2148 US dolar per troy ounce.
Jika dihitung dalam Rupiah, kali ini harga emas bergerak dalam kisaran BELI 1028594—1068360 Rupiah per gram, untuk segera menuju 1115966 Rupiah per gramnya.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) juga berhasil menembus ke atas Golden Ratio Fibonacci retracement 0.618 di 48725 USD. Kini, BTCUSD hampir mencapai retracement 1.618, yaitu 68486, untuk kemudian menyamai ketinggian harga sebelumnya ketika tahun 2021, yaitu di sekitar 69275 USD.
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Menjelang Ramadan 2024, tim analis Cermati Invest melihat bahwa beberapa reksa dana, seperti Sam Sukuk Syariah Sejahtera, BRI Syariah Saham, Setiabudi Dana Campuran, UOBam Sustainable Equity Indonesia, Trim Kapital Plus, dan Trim Syariah Berimbang dapat menjadi pilihan Investasi kembali atau top up. Selain itu, pemerintah juga mengeluarkan SBSN ritel seri SR020 tenor 3 tahun dan 5 tahun dengan imbal hasil tetap, sebagai pilihan cermat untuk berinvestasi di bulan Ramadan 2024 ini.
Data Inflasi Indonesia Makin Tinggi Mendekati bulan Ramadan
Pekan lalu, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan data inflasi yang mengalami kenaikan di atas ekspektasi pasar, yakni sebesar 2,75% secara tahunan, namun masih dalam rentang target pemerintah, yakni 1,5-3,5%. BPS mengemukakan inflasi pada Februari ini disebabkan oleh kelompok bahan makanan, seperti beras, cabai merah, daging ayam, tomat, bawang putih, serta gula pasir. Di luar makanan dan minuman, BPS mencatat emas perhiasan, angkutan udara, dan kontrak rumah rumah turut memberikan andil signifikan.
Tim analis Cermati Invest melihat kenaikan inflasi ini masih berada di angka yang wajar dengan salah satu faktor utamanya, yaitu kenaikan harga beras yang merupakan bahan konsumsi utama masyarakat Indonesia. Pada bulan Maret ini, juga akan memasuki bulan Ramadan yang biasanya belanja masyarakat akan meningkat sehingga dapat menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi terutama di sektor konsumer.
Kecerdasan Buatan (Artificial Intelligence/AI) Menopang Kinerja Saham di Amerika Serikat
Indeks saham Amerika Serikat (AS) Nasdaq berhasil mencetak rekor terbarunya ditopang oleh kenaikan saham terkait kecerdasan buatan (Artificial Intelligence/AI), seperti saham Nvidia dan saingannya, yakni saham Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Saham Nvidia sudah naik 18,6% sepanjang bulan Februari dan saham AMD naik 16,3%. Tim analis Cermati Invest melihat bahwa perkembangan teknologi di era saat ini yang makin cepat mendorong perusahaan-perusahaan yang bergerak di kecerdasan buatan/AI akan makin diuntungkan karena sudah banyak produk-produk teknologi baru yang menggunakan kecerdasan buatan/AI.
Selain itu, sentimen pasar global sedikit membaik setelah dirilisnya data inflasi belanja personal Amerika Serikat (AS) periode Januari 2024 yang sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar sebelumnya. Biro Analisis Ekonomi Departemen Perdagangan AS melaporkan inflasi belanja personal AS pada Januari lalu naik tercatat 2,4% secara tahunan, dimana lebih rendah dari December 2023 yang naik 2,6%. Data ini diharapkan menjadi cerminan untuk Bank Sentral AS/The Fed untuk mungkin mulai memangkas suku bunga yang saat ini relatif tinggi.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1952.77 | 5.59% | 7.73% | 5.32% | 6.62% | 7.63% | 18.08% | 95.28% | 21 Dec 2017 | 29.22 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3208.89 | 3.21% | 3.96% | 1.24% | 3.92% | 3.19% | 16.03% | 220.89% | 22 Apr 2008 | 86.87 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1379.41 | 2.52% | 3.77% | 0.20% | 1.90% | 6.89% | 35.07% | 37.94% | 25 Sep 2017 | 60.02 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1465.93 | 1.21% | 3.11% | 3.07% | 1.72% | 6.34% | 13.91% | 46.59% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.24 B |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1258.49 | 0.87% | 3.77% | 1.70% | 0.72% | 7.34% | 9.92% | 25.85% | 8 Sep 2016 | 103.01 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9503.50 | 0.84% | 2.73% | 0.90% | 1.20% | 5.58% | 13.33% | 850.35% | 3 Jun 2002 | 161.70 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1741.05 | 0.08% | -0.51% | -1.28% | 1.32% | 6.47% | 15.22% | 74.11% | 28 Dec 2018 | 275.53 B |
| Trim Syariah Berimbang | 3068.01 | -0.10% | 1.42% | -4.05% | 0.75% | 2.95% | -0.01% | 206.80% | 27 Dec 2006 | 18.76 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1633.87 | 0.43% | 1.44% | 2.69% | 0.91% | 4.86% | 13.77% | 63.39% | 8 Jun 2015 | 202.79 B |
| Sam Dana Kas | 1382.80 | 0.43% | 1.21% | 2.25% | 0.83% | 4.36% | 10.75% | 38.28% | 10 Feb 2017 | 60.14 B |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1554.93 | 0.42% | 1.33% | 2.64% | 0.86% | 5.26% | 14.80% | 55.49% | 30 Sep 2015 | 334.80 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1438.96 | 0.42% | 1.31% | 2.57% | 0.86% | 4.94% | 12.97% | 43.90% | 23 Dec 2016 | 704.45 B |
| Bri Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1273.63 | 0.41% | 1.34% | 2.71% | 0.85% | 4.85% | 11.91% | 27.36% | 19 Jul 2018 | 43.63 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1365.62 | 0.40% | 1.28% | 2.40% | 0.83% | 4.59% | 12.12% | 36.56% | 30 Dec 2016 | 735.33 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4756.82 | 0.49% | 1.51% | 2.75% | 0.99% | 6.48% | 22.09% | 375.68% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.69 T |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1141.22 | 0.39% | 1.19% | 1.86% | 0.80% | 5.05% | 18.83% | 14.12% | 23 May 2019 | 3.74 T |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1057.46 | 0.27% | 2.04% | 1.72% | 0.89% | 6.46% | - | 5.75% | 1 Sep 2022 | 3.61 B |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1439.68 | 0.23% | 1.35% | 0.67% | 0.75% | 4.96% | 10.79% | 43.97% | 17 Apr 2017 | 181.93 B |
| Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima | 2910.39 | 0.17% | 1.58% | 1.42% | 0.74% | 4.61% | 10.81% | 191.04% | 20 Dec 2006 | 1.41 T |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1591.95 | 0.13% | 1.24% | 0.74% | 0.68% | 6.08% | 13.66% | 59.20% | 16 Aug 2016 | 440.78 B |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1556.00 | 0.01% | 1.71% | 1.42% | 0.55% | 6.34% | 15.71% | 55.60% | 18 May 2016 | 18.17 B |
| Bni-Am Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1626.85 | -0.04% | 1.39% | 0.84% | 0.27% | 6.09% | 16.16% | 62.69% | 16 Jun 2016 | 19.00 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2528.41 | -0.17% | 1.84% | 1.22% | 0.53% | 5.54% | 15.16% | 152.84% | 8 Dec 2011 | 154.83 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4270.62 | 3.99% | 5.70% | 2.55% | 3.99% | 11.14% | 10.35% | 327.06% | 7 Jun 2007 | 344.67 B |
| Principal Indo Domestic Equity Fund | 822.35 | 3.92% | 4.64% | -1.33% | 4.14% | 1.54% | -5.61% | -17.77% | 11 Apr 2013 | 20.86 B |
| Eastspring Investments Value Discovery Kelas A | 1391.56 | 3.48% | 6.84% | 1.49% | 4.65% | 6.57% | 2.11% | 39.16% | 29 May 2013 | 393.58 B |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1614.67 | 3.37% | 6.63% | 1.22% | 4.49% | 8.78% | 13.91% | 61.47% | 29 Aug 2012 | 88.73 B |
| Principal Total Return Equity Fund Kelas O | 3436.59 | 3.18% | 6.23% | -1.01% | 3.30% | 0.75% | -3.42% | 243.66% | 1 Jul 2005 | 34.70 B |
| Bni-Am Indeks Idx Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1237.48 | 2.97% | 7.82% | 5.74% | 4.41% | 12.53% | - | 23.75% | 27 Jan 2022 | 2.08 B |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1211.07 | 2.83% | 6.07% | 1.44% | 2.18% | 15.31% | 20.61% | 21.11% | 8 Jun 2018 | 848.24 B |
| Cipta Sakura Equity | 1237.16 | 2.80% | 4.34% | 0.57% | 4.01% | 0.56% | 10.53% | 23.72% | 11 Dec 2014 | 31.01 B |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1333.95 | 2.77% | 7.66% | 3.43% | 3.42% | 12.17% | 30.29% | 33.39% | 3 Nov 2020 | 25.85 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4464.21 | 2.45% | 3.58% | 1.36% | 1.24% | 12.90% | 24.90% | 346.42% | 18 Apr 2008 | 309.00 B |
| Bri Mawar Konsumer 10 Kelas A | 1652.36 | 2.41% | 4.01% | -0.75% | 3.13% | 4.12% | -0.88% | 65.24% | 16 Feb 2011 | 256.65 B |
| Bahana Primavera 99 Kelas G | 1365.90 | 2.27% | 6.73% | 1.28% | 3.68% | 7.00% | 12.54% | 36.59% | 5 Sep 2014 | 24.31 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18275.16 | 2.12% | 3.79% | -1.08% | 2.71% | 6.18% | 17.99% | 1727.52% | 9 Jul 1999 | 105.96 B |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2427.64 | 2.10% | 8.83% | 7.66% | 4.52% | 21.15% | 25.16% | 142.76% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.10 T |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1220.37 | 2.00% | 5.53% | 2.41% | 2.73% | 10.72% | 23.60% | 22.04% | 17 Oct 2018 | 10.94 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 65456.75 | 1.28% | 4.17% | 0.77% | 2.17% | 6.42% | 7.91% | 6445.68% | 16 Dec 1996 | 2.00 T |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1236.12 | 1.08% | 5.35% | 1.05% | 2.35% | 10.99% | 24.52% | 23.61% | 29 Mar 2018 | 41.90 B |
| Hpam Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1603.03 | -3.59% | 13.63% | 8.95% | -2.48% | 16.32% | 53.55% | 60.30% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.66 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Global Esg Sharia Equity Usd | 1.1374 | 0.75% | 4.43% | 5.30% | 1.90% | 15.32% | 13.79% | 13.74% | 27 Jan 2021 | 20.77 M |
| Batavia Usd Bond Fund | 1.0288 | -0.67% | 0.24% | 0.79% | -1.03% | 1.39% | - | 2.88% | 18 Oct 2022 | 7.77 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Usd Kelas A | 0.9483 | -0.58% | 1.37% | 2.95% | -0.74% | 3.54% | - | -5.17% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.08 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific Usd Kelas A | 0.9570 | 2.91% | 2.91% | 2.74% | 0.62% | -0.70% | -32.85% | -4.30% | 28 Oct 2016 | 4.83 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity Usd Kelas A | 0.6055 | 2.73% | -1.01% | -5.16% | 0.02% | -11.61% | -52.23% | -39.45% | 15 Jun 2020 | 6.18 M |
Provided by AIT, last update 1 Maret 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 04 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 11:00 PM | US | Pidato Fed Harker | |||
| Tuesday, 05 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:01 AM | GB | Brc Retail Sale Monitor (Tahunan) FEB | 1.40% | 1.50% | |
| 7:30 AM | JP | PMI Jasa Jibun Bank Final FEB | 53.10 | 52.50 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Pmi Layanan Caixin FEB | 52.70 | 53.40 | |
| 3:55 PM | DE | Final PMI Layanan HCOB FEB | 47.70 | 48.20 | 48.20 |
| 4:30 PM | GB | Final IMP Layanan Global S&P FEB | 54.30 | 54.30 | 54.30 |
| 9:45 PM | US | Final IMP Komposit Global S&P FEB | 52.00 | 51.40 | 51.40 |
| 9:45 PM | US | Final IMP Layanan Global S&P FEB | 52.50 | 51.30 | |
| 10:00 PM | US | PMI Layanan ISM FEB | 53.40 | 53.00 | 52.90 |
| 10:00 PM | US | Pesanan Pabrik MoM JAN | 0.20% | -2.80% | -4.90% |
| 10:00 PM | US | Indeks Optimisme Ekonomi RCM/TIPP MAR | 44.00 | 49.00 | |
| Wednesday, 06 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:00 AM | US | Pidato Fed Barr | |||
| 3:30 AM | US | Pidato Fed Barr | |||
| 4:30 AM | US | Perubahan Stok Minyak Mentah API MAR/01 | 8.428M | ||
| 2:00 PM | DE | Neraca Perdagangan JAN | €22.4B | €21.5B | €23.6B |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Ekspor MoM JAN | -4.60% | 1.50% | |
| 4:30 PM | GB | PMI Konstruksi Global S&P FEB | 48.80 | 49.20 | 49.20 |
| 7:30 PM | GB | Spring Budget 2024 | |||
| 8:15 PM | US | Perubahan Tenaga Kerja Adp FEB | 107K | 150K | 90K |
| 10:00 PM | US | Kesaksian Ketua Fed Powell | |||
| 10:00 PM | US | Lowongan Kerja JOLTs JAN | 9.026M | 8.895M | 8.9M |
| 10:30 PM | US | Perubahan Persediaan Minyak Mentah EIA MAR/01 | 4.199M | ||
| 10:30 PM | US | Perubahan Persediaan Bensin EIA MAR/01 | -2.832M | ||
| Thursday, 07 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:00 AM | US | Pidato Fed Daly | |||
| 10:00 AM | CN | Neraca Perdagangan JAN-FEB | $75.34B | $107B | $106.0B |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Ekspor YoY JAN-FEB | 2.30% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Impor YoY JAN-FEB | 0.20% | 2.00% | 1.00% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Pesanan Pabrik MoM JAN | 8.90% | -6.00% | -4.60% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Indeks Harga Rumah Halifax MoM FEB | 1.30% | 1.00% | |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Indeks Harga Rumah Halifax YoY FEB | 2.50% | 2.30% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Neraca Perdagangan JAN | $-62.2B | $-63.4B | $-64.5B |
| 8:30 PM | US | Ekspor JAN | $258.3B | $258.8B | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Impor JAN | $320.4B | $323.3B | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Klaim Pengangguran Awal MAR/02 | 215K | 217.0K | |
| 10:00 PM | US | Kesaksian Ketua Fed Powell | |||
| 11:30 PM | US | Pidato Mester Fed | |||
| Friday, 08 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Transaksi Berjalan JAN | ¥744.3B | ¥-330.4B | ¥-250.0B |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production (Bulanan) JAN | -1.60% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | PPI MoM JAN | -1.20% | -0.10% | -0.70% |
| 7:00 PM | US | Pidato William Fed | |||
| 8:30 PM | US | Upah non Pertanian FEB | 353K | 200K | 195K |
| 8:30 PM | US | Tingkat Pengangguran FEB | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.70% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Tingkat Partisipasi FEB | 62.50% | 62.60% | |
| Saturday, 09 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:30 AM | CN | Tingkat Inflasi (Tahunan) FEB | -0.80% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Tingkat Inflasi (Bulanan) FEB | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PPI YoY FEB | -2.50% | -2.50% | -2.30% |
| Sunday, 10 March 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Disetahunkan Final Q4 | -3.30% | -0.40% | |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Pertumbuhan Ekonomi QoQ Final Q4 | -0.80% | -0.10% | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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