Cermati Invest Weekly Update 5 Februari 2024
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 1.42% | 7,238.79 |
| IDX LQ45 | 3.49% | 984.67 |
| IDX 30 | 3.47% | 499.60 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 4.16% | 7,693.05 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 3.92% | 3,748.51 |
| USD/IDR | -0.53% | 15,731.20 |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 1.06% | 2,039.76 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -7.18% | 72.41 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -6.30% | 3,764 |
| Natural Gas | -22.86% | 2.09 |
| Newcastle Coal | -8.73% | 116.00 |
| Nickel | -3.23% | 16,243 |
| Tin | -4.18% | 25,550 |
| Copper | -0.91% | 8,468 |
| Aluminium | -1.63% | 2,238 |
| US Soybeans | -1.76% | 1,188.00 |
| Silver | 0.14% | 22.79 |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | 1.43% | 38,654.42 |
| S&P 500 | 1.38% | 4,958.61 |
| FTSE 100 | -0.26% | 7,615.54 |
| DAX | -0.25% | 16,918.21 |
| Nikkei 225 | 1.14% | 36,158.02 |
| Hang Seng | -2.62% | 15,533.56 |
| Shanghai | -6.19% | 2,730.15 |
| KOSPI | 5.52% | 2,615.31 |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
Ulasan Pasar
IHSG
Pekan lalu IHSG tutup di 7238.79, beranjak dari batas bawahnya, menuju middle area, kembali ke area sideways kisaran 7179 (support) – 7287 (resistance). Cermati Indeks Sri-Kehati, yang performanya selalu di atas IHSG. Selanjutnya Indeks LQ45, FTSE Indonesia, MSCI Indonesia dan Bisnis27 berurutan performanya di bawah IHSG. Amati saham-saham terbaik dalam sektor Infrastruktur, Basic Industry dan Finance.
Rupiah
Pekan lalu rupiah menguat ke 15731, pekan ini rupiah bergerak di area 15590 – 15800.
Emas
2 data penting Amerika pada akhir pekan lalu, menyebabkan emas dunia sempat naik signifikan ke 2066 US dollar per troy ounce (Fed rate), kemudian terkoreksi ke 2027 (Non Farm Payroll). Pekan ini diperkirakan akan bergerak di antara 2016 – 2057 US dollar per troy ounce. Dalam rupiah, emas bergerak di kisaran 1024507 – 1053933 per gram. Bersabar untuk beli di harga bawah.
Reksa Dana
Berdasarkan data pekan lalu, reksa dana saham sangat menarik untuk diinvest atau reinvest. Investasi dalam reksa dana Cipta Rencana Cerdas, UOBam Sustainable Equity Indonesia, Batavia Dana Saham Optimal, Batavia Dana Saham Syariah, BNI AM Inspiring Equity Fund cukup menarik atau reinvest reksa dana berbasis indeks seperti Sri-Kehati, MSCI Indonesia, FTSE Indonesia, Growth 30, ESG, Bisnis-27. Hati-hati dengan reksa dana HPam Equitas Syariah Berkah yang sudah terkoreksi 8 hari berturut-turut.
Inflasi Indonesia Kembali Stabil di Era Suku Bunga Tinggi, Cermati Dampaknya
Dari dalam negeri, rilis data inflasi Indonesia mencapai 0.04% (month on month/bulanan) atau 2.57% (year on year/tahunan). Meskipun inflasi Indonesia berada di atas proyeksi pasar yang sebesar 2.55%, inflasi Januari 2024 masih dalam kondisi stabil sebagaimana ditetapkan dalam asumsi makro APBN 2024 yakni terkendali di bawah 3%. Tim analis Cermati Invest melihat bahwa data inflasi Indonesia masih relatif stabil, walaupun masih di tengah prosesi pemilihan presiden 2024 yang di mana biasanya dapat mengangkat belanja masyarakat dan mendorong ekonomi melalui dana kampanye. Inflasi yang stabil disebabkan dari tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia (BI-Rate) yang masih tinggi yaitu di 6%, akibatnya mendorong perilaku pelaku pasar untuk lebih memilih untuk menempatkan dana pada instrumen deposito, sehingga sikap ekspansi dan konsumsi masyarakat dapat menurun. Pekan depan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) akan merilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal IV-2023 pada Senin (5/2/2024), pertumbuhan ekonomi diperkirakan kembali ke atas 5% (tahunan) pada kuartal IV-2023, sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi sepanjang 2023 diyakini berada di atas 5%. Data pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menjadi data yang penting karena dapat menjadi daya tarik investor luar negeri untuk kembali berinvestasi di Indonesia.
Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat Tahan Kembali Suku Bunga, Cermati Dampaknya
Dalam pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yang berakhir Rabu (31/1/2024) waktu AS, bank sentral Amerika (The Fed) memutuskan mempertahankan kisaran target suku bunga acuan federal fund rate (FFR) pada level 5.25%-5.5%. Kemudian Direktur bank sentral Amerika, Jerome Powell, menunjukkan sikap tidak terburu-buru untuk menurunkan suku bunga, hingga mendapatkan keyakinan lebih besar bahwa inflasi bergerak menuju target 2%. Kemudian Departemen Tenaga Kerja Amerika melaporkan data pengangguran mencapai 3.7% di bulan Januari 2024, lebih rendah dari perkiraan 3.8%. Tim analis Cermati Invest kembali melihat bahwa kedua data ini menyebabkan anomali antara perekonomian Amerika & kebijakan moneter Bank Sentral-nya, karena dengan menurunnya tingkat pengangguran justru akan menjadi semakin sulit untuk menekan tingkat inflasi karena akan semakin banyak masyarakat mendapatkan upah dan melakukan belanja/konsumsi, sedangkan dari bank sentral memiliki target untuk menurunkan inflasi sampai di 2% yang saat ini masih di angka 3.4% secara tahunan. Kekhawatiran lainnya yaitu dari sisi kredit di mana suku bunga pinjaman juga sejalan angkanya dengan tingkat suku bunga tabungan, sehingga berpotensi menyebabkan masyarakat kesulitan untuk membayar bunga pinjaman yang digunakan di berbagai sektor seperti properti, bisnis, biaya sekolah, dll.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1743.08 | 1.43% | 3.16% | 1.43% | 1.43% | 5.90% | 17.86% | 74.31% | 28 Dec 2018 | 282.79 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9447.38 | 0.60% | 4.94% | 1.38% | 0.60% | 4.72% | 13.62% | 844.74% | 3 Jun 2002 | 178.55 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3115.83 | 0.91% | 3.35% | -0.61% | 0.91% | -1.33% | 14.61% | 211.58% | 22 Apr 2008 | 86.92 B |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1847.12 | 0.85% | 3.59% | -0.54% | 0.85% | 5.69% | 12.55% | 84.71% | 21 Dec 2017 | 30.48 B |
| Trim Kombinasi 2 | 2687.75 | 1.24% | 3.14% | 1.23% | 1.24% | 5.10% | 11.04% | 168.78% | 10 Nov 2006 | 24.36 B |
| Trim Syariah Berimbang | 3077.49 | 1.06% | 3.99% | -1.51% | 1.06% | 2.55% | 0.30% | 207.75% | 27 Dec 2006 | 19.02 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1451.63 | 0.73% | 3.52% | 2.78% | 0.73% | 5.10% | 14.64% | 45.16% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.29 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1433.10 | 0.45% | 1.31% | 2.56% | 0.45% | 4.85% | 12.93% | 43.31% | 23 Dec 2016 | 759.48 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1360.32 | 0.44% | 1.26% | 2.36% | 0.44% | 4.50% | 12% | 36.03% | 30 Dec 2016 | 675.44 B |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1548.63 | 0.45% | 1.33% | 2.64% | 0.45% | 5.19% | 14.72% | 54.86% | 30 Sep 2015 | 334.80 B |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1150.23 | 0.52% | 1.26% | 2.29% | 0.52% | 4.32% | 10.52% | 15.02% | 12 Jul 2016 | 227.60 B |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1627.21 | 0.50% | 1.43% | 2.54% | 0.50% | 4.79% | 13.71% | 62.72% | 8 Jun 2015 | 177.25 B |
| Principal Cash Fund | 1784.54 | 0.44% | 1.13% | 1.87% | 0.44% | 3.82% | 10.11% | 78.45% | 23 Dec 2011 | 133.88 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Lancar Syariah | 1710.06 | 0.43% | 1.17% | 1.99% | 0.43% | 4.08% | 10.42% | 71.01% | 28 Jun 2013 | 129.51 B |
| Uobam Esg Pasar Uang Indonesia | 1092.03 | 0.45% | 1.25% | 1.92% | 0.45% | 3.74% | 8.08% | 9.20% | 9 Oct 2020 | 117.85 B |
| Bri Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1268.90 | 0.48% | 1.58% | 2.58% | 0.48% | 4.84% | 11.81% | 26.89% | 19 Jul 2018 | 36.19 B |
| Batavia Dana Kas Syariah | 1066.68 | 0.46% | 1.19% | 1.97% | 0.46% | 3.73% | - | 6.67% | 22 Nov 2021 | 21.72 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4734.56 | 0.52% | 1.47% | 2.81% | 0.52% | 6.59% | 22.24% | 373.46% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.60 T |
| Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima | 2916.45 | 0.62% | 2.81% | 1.24% | 0.62% | 4.36% | 9.58% | 191.65% | 20 Dec 2006 | 1.34 T |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1589.96 | 0.55% | 2.32% | 0.61% | 0.55% | 5.84% | 12% | 59.00% | 16 Aug 2016 | 490.87 B |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1437.04 | 0.57% | 2.05% | 0.32% | 0.57% | 4.74% | 9.81% | 43.70% | 17 Apr 2017 | 190.39 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2537.68 | 0.90% | 4.23% | 1.61% | 0.90% | 5.44% | 12.11% | 153.77% | 8 Dec 2011 | 177.17 B |
| Eastspring Idr Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1701.69 | 0.55% | 3.70% | 0.83% | 0.55% | 4.62% | 11.82% | 70.17% | 16 Mar 2015 | 133.68 B |
| Uobam Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 1002.78 | 1.26% | 5.12% | 5.71% | 1.26% | 5.52% | - | 0.28% | 12 Jan 2021 | 82.99 B |
| Eastspring Investments Yield Discovery Kelas A | 1604.72 | 0.61% | 2.37% | 1.74% | 0.61% | 3.68% | 6.62% | 60.47% | 29 May 2013 | 44.97 B |
| Sequis Bond Optima | 1456.62 | 0.56% | 3.94% | 1.07% | 0.56% | 3.89% | 9.70% | 45.66% | 8 Sep 2016 | 38.16 B |
| Eastspring Investments Idr High Grade Kelas A | 1653.46 | 0.55% | 3.67% | 0.89% | 0.55% | 4.26% | 9.55% | 65.35% | 9 Jan 2013 | 32.82 B |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1556.83 | 0.60% | 3.83% | 1.58% | 0.60% | 5.78% | 12.84% | 55.68% | 18 May 2016 | 21.29 B |
| Bri Brawijaya Abadi Pendapatan Tetap | 1337.89 | 0.50% | 3.91% | 0.38% | 0.50% | 3.57% | 11.17% | 33.79% | 25 Feb 2019 | 11.22 B |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1055.40 | 0.70% | 3.06% | 1.37% | 0.70% | 5.73% | - | 5.54% | 1 Sep 2022 | 3.48 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 64814.21 | 1.16% | 6.27% | 2.14% | 1.16% | 4.78% | 9.57% | 6381.42% | 16 Dec 1996 | 2.05 T |
| Hpam Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1658.21 | 0.87% | 15.71% | 24.86% | 0.87% | 17.72% | 64.40% | 65.82% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.67 T |
| Bni-Am Inspiring Equity Fund | 1019.28 | 2% | 7.39% | 1.08% | 2% | 3% | 5.45% | 1.93% | 7 Apr 2014 | 1.28 T |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2385.20 | 2.69% | 13.21% | 11.71% | 2.69% | 15.02% | 26.65% | 138.52% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.06 T |
| Eastspring Investments Value Discovery Kelas A | 1350.85 | 1.59% | 5.64% | -0.66% | 1.59% | 2.68% | 2.95% | 35.09% | 29 May 2013 | 391.06 B |
| Trim Kapital | 11920.81 | -0.98% | 3.41% | -2.69% | -0.98% | 7.40% | 22.39% | 1092.08% | 19 Mar 1997 | 362.59 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4373.96 | -0.81% | 4.72% | -0.30% | -0.81% | 10.90% | 29.01% | 337.40% | 18 Apr 2008 | 280.21 B |
| Bri Mawar Konsumer 10 Kelas A | 1618.16 | 1% | 4.96% | -1.62% | 1% | 1.42% | 0.38% | 61.82% | 16 Feb 2011 | 253.14 B |
| Bri Msci Indonesia Esg Screened Kelas A | 1107.07 | 1.59% | 8.89% | 1.78% | 1.59% | 9.38% | - | 10.71% | 7 Sep 2022 | 126.57 B |
| Trim Syariah Saham | 1840.14 | 0.80% | 3.53% | -3.87% | 0.80% | -1.87% | -6.19% | 84.01% | 27 Dec 2006 | 125.23 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18011.61 | 1.22% | 4.44% | -2.51% | 1.22% | 5.48% | 19.37% | 1701.16% | 9 Jul 1999 | 105.85 B |
| Principal Islamic Equity Growth Syariah | 1187.31 | 0.64% | 2.54% | -3.56% | 0.64% | -3.31% | -7.80% | 18.73% | 10 Sep 2007 | 100.78 B |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1569.62 | 1.58% | 4.13% | -0.11% | 1.58% | 5.77% | 14.88% | 56.96% | 29 Aug 2012 | 90.51 B |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1229.77 | 1.82% | 6.65% | 0.79% | 1.82% | 11.56% | 27.53% | 22.98% | 29 Mar 2018 | 50.91 B |
| Cipta Sakura Equity | 1210.66 | 1.78% | 5.74% | -2.42% | 1.78% | -1.23% | 13.06% | 21.07% | 11 Dec 2014 | 30.95 B |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1309.10 | 1.50% | 8.15% | 1.70% | 1.50% | 11.35% | - | 30.91% | 3 Nov 2020 | 27.15 B |
| Bahana Primavera 99 Kelas G | 1343.05 | 1.94% | 8.13% | 1.96% | 1.94% | 4.05% | 12.98% | 34.31% | 5 Sep 2014 | 25.93 B |
| Eastspring Idx Esg Leaders Plus Kelas A | 1030.78 | 0.81% | 13.81% | 6.07% | 0.81% | 9.64% | - | 3.08% | 12 Jan 2022 | 18.90 B |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1202.00 | 1.19% | 6.18% | 2.54% | 1.19% | 9.61% | 23.56% | 20.20% | 17 Oct 2018 | 10.73 B |
| Uobam Indeks Bisnis-27 | 1451.62 | 0.75% | 6.99% | -0.05% | 0.75% | 6.93% | 23.78% | 45.16% | 15 Aug 2012 | 6.49 B |
| Bni-Am Indeks Idx Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1207.67 | 1.90% | 8.45% | 4.72% | 1.90% | 10.05% | - | 20.77% | 27 Jan 2022 | 1.84 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Usd Kelas A | 0.96 | 0.16% | 3.56% | 3.84% | 0.16% | 3.75% | - | -4.31% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.15 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity Usd Kelas A | 0.58 | -5.23% | 1.49% | -14.50% | -4.15% | -26.39% | -56.12% | -41.97% | 15 Jun 2020 | 6.79 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific Usd Kelas A | 0.92 | -3.21% | 5.39% | -6.25% | -2.78% | -12.56% | -37.21% | -7.53% | 28 Oct 2016 | 5.04 M |
Provided by AIT, last update 2 Februari 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 05 February 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:30 AM | JP | PMI Jasa Jibun Bank Final JAN | 51.5 | 52.7 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Pmi Layanan Caixin JAN | 52.9 | 52.9 | |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Pertumbuhan PDB Setahun Penuh 2023 | 5.31% | 5.00% | |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Pertumbuhan Ekonomi QoQ Q4 | 1.60% | 0.41% | 0.50% |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Pdb Laju Pertumbuhan (Tahunan) Q4 | 4.94% | 5.00% | 5.00% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Neraca Perdagangan DEC | €20.4B | €18.8B | € 17B |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Ekspor MoM DEC | 3.70% | -2.00% | |
| 3:55 PM | DE | Final PMI Layanan HCOB JAN | 49.3 | 47.6 | 47.6 |
| 4:30 PM | GB | Final IMP Layanan Global S&P JAN | 53.4 | 53.8 | 53.8 |
| 9:45 PM | US | Final IMP Komposit Global S&P JAN | 50.9 | 52.3 | |
| 9:45 PM | US | Final IMP Layanan Global S&P JAN | 51.4 | 52.9 | 52.9 |
| 10:00 PM | US | PMI Layanan ISM JAN | 50.6 | 52.0 | 51.7 |
| Tuesday, 06 February 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:01 AM | GB | Brc Retail Sale Monitor (Tahunan) JAN | 1.9% | 1.7% | |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Pesanan Pabrik MoM DEC | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 4:30 PM | GB | PMI Konstruksi Global S&P JAN | 46.8 | 47.3 | 48.2 |
| 10:00 PM | US | Indeks Optimisme Ekonomi RCM/TIPP FEB | 44.7 | 45.2 | |
| Wednesday, 07 February 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | Perubahan Stok Minyak Mentah API FEB/02 | -2.5M | ||
| 2:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production (Bulanan) DEC | -0.70% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Indeks Harga Rumah Halifax MoM JAN | 1.10% | 0.20% | |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Indeks Harga Rumah Halifax YoY JAN | 1.70% | 1.90% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Neraca Perdagangan DEC | $-63.2B | $-62.2B | $ -63B |
| 8:30 PM | US | Ekspor DEC | $253.7B | $255B | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Impor DEC | $316.9B | $318B | |
| Thursday, 08 February 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Transaksi Berjalan DEC | ¥1925.6B | ¥1018.9B | ¥1110.0B |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Tingkat Inflasi (Tahunan) JAN | -0.30% | -0.50% | -0.40% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Tingkat Inflasi (Bulanan) JAN | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PPI YoY JAN | -2.70% | -2.60% | -2.50% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Klaim Pengangguran Awal FEB/03 | 224K | 220K | 227K |
| Friday, 09 February 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | Lelang Surat Utang Amerika Serikat Tenor 30 Tahun | 4.23% | ||
| 2:00 PM | DE | Laju Inflasi (Bulanan) Akhir JAN | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Tingkat Inflasi YoY Final JAN | 3.70% | 2.90% | 2.90% |
| 4:00 PM | CN | Giro Prel Q4 | $62.8B | $60.0B | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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