Cermati Invest Weekly Update 8 Januari 2024
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 1.07% | 7,350.62 |
| IDX LQ45 | 1.62% | 986.26 |
| IDX 30 | 1.31% | 501.72 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 1.18% | 7,642.78 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 1.25% | 3,724.97 |
| USD/IDR | 0.78% | 15,515.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
Market Review
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) sempat mencapai titik tertinggi sepanjang masa pada perdagangan pekan lalu yaitu pada level 7.359,763. Pekan ini akan ada laporan beberapa data ekonomi penting yang dapat berpengaruh pada pergerakan bursa. Dari Amerika, pekan lalu melaporkan data tenaga kerja bulan Desember 2023, dan implikasinya terhadap proyeksi ekonomi ke depan.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -0.82% | 2,045.61 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 3.21% | 73.95 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -1.05% | 3,682 |
| Natural Gas | 15.59% | 2.91 |
| Newcastle Coal | -9.90% | 131.90 |
| Nickel | -1.56% | 16,344 |
| Tin | -2.29% | 24,834 |
| Copper | -1.61% | 8,421 |
| Aluminium | -4.59% | 2,275 |
| US Soybeans | -3.34% | 1,250.25 |
| Silver | -2.66% | 23.39 |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
Economic Data
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) berakhir di zona merah setelah bertahan di zona hijau sepanjang pekan lalu. IHSG memecahkan rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarah pada penutupan perdagangan hari Kamis (4/1/2024), yaitu pada level 7.359,763. Saham-saham perbankan besar masih menjadi penggerak utama indeks selama perdagangan pekan lalu. Hal ini karena perubahan alokasi investasi yang sering terjadi pada awal tahun atau dikenal sebagai " January Effect" khususnya dalam saham-saham besar. January Effect adalah sebuah fenomena di mana harga saham di pasar modal cenderung mengalami kenaikan. Bahkan, beberapa saham yang termasuk ke dalam kategori mid cap dan small cap juga ikut mengalami kenaikan harga saham. Pada akhir pekan lalu, tepatnya pada Jumat (5/1/2024), investor asing mencatatkan nilai beli bersih sebesar Rp1,40 triliun dan sepanjang tahun 2024 investor asing mencatatkan nilai jual bersih sebesar Rp2,87 triliun.
Sementara itu, dari dalam negeri pekan ini akan ada rilis data keyakinan konsumen yang diperkirakan naik ke level 124 pada Desember 2023 dari sebelumnya 123.6 bulan November 2023. Selain itu, akan ada juga laporan cadangan devisa Indonesia pada Desember 2023 yang diperkirakan berada di level US$139 miliar.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.59% | 37,466.11 |
| S&P 500 | -1.52% | 4,697.24 |
| FTSE 100 | -0.56% | 7,689.61 |
| DAX | -0.94% | 16,594.21 |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.26% | 33,377.42 |
| Hang Seng | -3.22% | 16,498.00 |
| Shanghai | -1.54% | 2,929.18 |
| KOSPI | -2.91% | 2,578.08 |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
Regional Info
Dari Amerika Serikat (AS), laporan Departemen Tenaga Kerja menunjukkan pengusaha AS mempekerjakan lebih banyak pekerja dari perkiraan pada bulan Desember dan menaikkan upah dengan jumlah yang besar. Jumlah gaji non-pertanian ( non-farm payrolls) meningkat sebesar 216.000, dibandingkan dengan perkiraan kenaikan sebesar 170.000, menurut para ekonom yang disurvei oleh Reuters. Perekonomian AS menambah 2,7 juta lapangan pekerjaan pada tahun 2023, penurunan tajam dari 4,8 juta lapangan kerja yang diciptakan pada tahun 2022. Hal ini mencerminkan menurunnya permintaan tenaga kerja dan perekonomian yang lebih luas setelah kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral AS sebesar 525 basis poin sejak bulan Maret 2023. Data tersebut menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian terhindar dari resesi pada tahun lalu dan kemungkinan akan terus tumbuh hingga tahun 2024 karena ketahanan pasar tenaga kerja mendukung belanja konsumen. Diperlukan sekitar 100.000 pekerjaan per bulan untuk mengimbangi pertumbuhan populasi usia kerja. Sementara, tingkat pengangguran tidak berubah dari bulan November di 3.7%, dibandingkan dengan ekspektasi kenaikan 3.8%, sementara pendapatan rata-rata naik 0.4% setiap bulan, dibandingkan perkiraan pertumbuhan 0.3%. Dengan laporan data pekerjaan yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan mengisyaratkan ketahanan di pasar tenaga kerja dan mengurangi ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga oleh bank sentral Amerika (The Fed) yang lebih cepat di tahun ini.
Insight 2024 1st Quarter, 2nd week
IHSG, minggu pertama 2024, tutup di 7350.62, naik 1.07% dari akhir pekan sebelumnya (akhir tahun 2023), hampir mencatatkan 7453 sebagai Higher High (tertinggi sepanjang Sejarah IHSG). Apakah ini window dressing yang terlambat atau Januari efek? 2 momentum atau musim yang sering disebut dalam perdagangan saham di seluruh dunia, anomali harga saham reli. Kenyataannya tidak selalu demikian, pekan pertama Januari 2024 bursa saham Indonesia bergerak anomali, naik, padahal bursa regional justru bergerak sebaliknya, koreksi.
RUPIAH, pekan ini di kisaran 15372—15606.
EMAS, minggu pertama Januari 2024 tercatat 2024 US dollar sebagai support, 2078 US dollar sebagai resistance. Pekan ke 2 harga emas dunia masih berada di kisaran yang sama. Dalam rupiah, emas berkisar 1017235—1037689 per gram.
CERMATI, sektor apa yang akan mendorong pergerakan IHSG naik lebih tinggi tahun 2024 ini? Infrastruktur, Finance, Basic Industry & Energy. Sedangkan Indeks Konstituen terbaiknya masih Sri Kehati, LQ45, FTSE Indonesia, MSCI Indonesia, Bisnis 27 dan IDX30. Untuk reksa dana, Cermati aset alokasi reksa dana saham atau campuran, yang di antara top 5 emitennya adalah pemicu pergerakan indeks konstituen dan indeks sektoral tersebut.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Flexi Plus | 1745.196 | 9.62% | 10.68% | 16.41% | -0.27% | 9.09% | -6.50% | 74.52% | 2 Mar 2011 | 39.70 B |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1245.622 | 2.52% | 2.99% | 1.78% | -0.31% | 8.26% | 7.17% | 24.56% | 8 Sep 2016 | 100.20 B |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1830.926 | 2.37% | -2.10% | -2.05% | -0.03% | 8.73% | 6.46% | 83.09% | 21 Dec 2017 | 30.62 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1357.356 | 2.35% | -0.35% | 1.38% | 0.27% | 9.67% | 29.96% | 35.74% | 25 Sep 2017 | 60.49 B |
| Trim Syariah Berimbang | 3056.970 | 2.02% | -2.46% | -0.95% | 0.39% | 5.13% | -0.11% | 205.70% | 27 Dec 2006 | 18.99 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9421.370 | 1.77% | 2.07% | 0.63% | 0.33% | 7.49% | 11.92% | 842.14% | 3 Jun 2002 | 155.44 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1443.960 | 1.27% | 2.20% | 2.19% | 0.20% | 5.43% | 13.59% | 44.40% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.16 B |
| Trim Kombinasi 2 | 2678.920 | 1.15% | -1.36% | 2.31% | 0.90% | 8.97% | 12.07% | 167.89% | 10 Nov 2006 | 25.55 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1732.890 | 0.88% | -1.69% | 2.53% | 0.84% | 10.19% | 25.67% | 73.29% | 28 Dec 2018 | 294.08 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1619.800 | 0.50% | 1.29% | 2.46% | 0.04% | 4.70% | 13.44% | 61.98% | 8 Jun 2015 | 172.19 B |
| Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1263.436 | 0.46% | 1.45% | 2.50% | 0.05% | 4.71% | 11.62% | 26.34% | 19 Jul 2018 | 36.19 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1427.342 | 0.44% | 1.28% | 2.50% | 0.04% | 4.76% | 12.90% | 42.73% | 23 Dec 2016 | 707.10 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1354.893 | 0.43% | 1.20% | 2.28% | 0.04% | 4.41% | 11.82% | 35.49% | 30 Dec 2016 | 452.58 B |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1604.392 | 0.42% | 1.07% | 2.10% | 0.04% | 4.20% | 12.57% | 60.44% | 12 Jun 2015 | 3.18 T |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1535.740 | 0.42% | 1.15% | 2.31% | 0.04% | 4.55% | 12.75% | 53.57% | 10 Sep 2015 | 124.36 B |
| Trim Kas 2 Kelas A | 1803.560 | 0.39% | 1.13% | 2.22% | 0.04% | 4.32% | 12.55% | 80.36% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.79 T |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1144.770 | 0.39% | 1.08% | 2.12% | 0.04% | 4.15% | 10.35% | 14.48% | 12 Jul 2016 | 219.13 B |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1369.165 | 0.39% | 1.10% | 2.17% | 0.04% | 4.16% | 9.44% | 36.92% | 8 Sep 2016 | 113.00 B |
| Hpam Ultima Money Market | 1531.883 | 0.37% | 1.16% | 2.21% | 0.04% | 4.58% | 14.04% | 53.19% | 10 Jun 2015 | 470.83 B |
| Sam Dana Kas | 1371.418 | 0.35% | 1.00% | 1.96% | 0.00% | 4.10% | 10.50% | 37.14% | 10 Feb 2017 | 109.70 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1494.812 | 0.35% | 1.03% | 2.01% | 0.03% | 4.41% | 13.09% | 49.48% | 13 Apr 2018 | 3.27 B |
| Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang Iii | 1667.848 | 0.31% | 1.04% | 2.06% | 0.04% | 4.11% | 11.17% | 66.78% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.18 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Uobam Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 979.938 | 1.39% | 5.21% | 3.24% | -1.04% | 2.76% | - | -2.01% | 12 Jan 2021 | 80.58 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2510.430 | 0.94% | 3.51% | 0.64% | -0.18% | 6.26% | 10.22% | 151.04% | 8 Dec 2011 | 145.94 B |
| Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima | 2903.270 | 0.58% | 2.07% | 0.58% | -0.11% | 4.36% | 8.86% | 190.33% | 20 Dec 2006 | 1.33 T |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4712.519 | 0.50% | 1.33% | 2.87% | 0.05% | 6.64% | 22.37% | 371.25% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.60 T |
| Eastspring Idr Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1686.820 | 0.50% | 3.26% | -0.20% | -0.33% | 5.40% | 10.48% | 68.68% | 16 Mar 2015 | 129.68 B |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1540.789 | 0.46% | 3.27% | 0.35% | -0.43% | 6.45% | 10.19% | 54.08% | 18 May 2016 | 20.93 B |
| Bni-Am Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1615.730 | 0.45% | 2.74% | 0.03% | -0.42% | 6.83% | 11.48% | 61.57% | 16 Jun 2016 | 66.88 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1660.136 | 15.17% | 15.07% | 26.17% | 0.99% | 25.30% | 59.14% | 66.01% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.67 T |
| Eastspring Idx Esg Leaders Plus Kelas A | 1027.560 | 7.32% | 8.99% | 5.82% | 0.50% | 11.50% | - | 2.76% | 12 Jan 2022 | 20.44 B |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2349.340 | 5.73% | 4.16% | 11.93% | 1.15% | 20.75% | 18.06% | 134.93% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.03 T |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1303.043 | 4.54% | 3.28% | 1.72% | 1.03% | 13.27% | - | 30.30% | 3 Nov 2020 | 30.63 B |
| Danareksa Msci Indonesia Esg Screened Kelas A | 1100.310 | 4.31% | 2.76% | 2.26% | 0.97% | 11.01% | - | 10.03% | 7 Sep 2022 | 121.18 B |
| Uobam Indeks Bisnis-27 | 1447.857 | 3.98% | 1.94% | 1.26% | 0.49% | 8.93% | 19.28% | 44.79% | 15 Aug 2012 | 7.45 B |
| Bahana Primavera 99 Kelas G | 1330.190 | 3.73% | 1.91% | 1.31% | 0.97% | 7.36% | 7.20% | 33.02% | 5 Sep 2014 | 26.38 B |
| Bni-Am Indeks Idx Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1194.960 | 3.59% | 2.86% | 4.41% | 0.83% | 11.58% | - | 19.50% | 27 Jan 2022 | 1.51 B |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1190.470 | 3.46% | 2.86% | 1.29% | 0.44% | 17.30% | 17.17% | 19.05% | 8 Jun 2018 | 864.39 B |
| Bni-Am Indeks Idx30 | 864.320 | 3.42% | 2.88% | 1.02% | 0.64% | 9.74% | 3.34% | -13.57% | 28 Dec 2017 | 1.60 T |
| Principal Index Idx30 Kelas O | 1371.190 | 3.37% | 3.00% | 1.15% | 0.64% | 9.84% | 1.34% | 37.12% | 7 Dec 2012 | 65.54 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4434.270 | 3.13% | 1.44% | 2.93% | 0.56% | 16.26% | 29.78% | 343.43% | 18 Apr 2008 | 267.25 B |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1196.230 | 3.06% | 1.50% | 1.95% | 0.70% | 11.63% | 18.90% | 19.62% | 17 Oct 2018 | 10.89 B |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1216.316 | 2.90% | 1.21% | 0.60% | 0.71% | 12.95% | 20.45% | 21.63% | 29 Mar 2018 | 75.34 B |
| Trim Kapital | 12086.320 | 2.55% | -0.27% | -0.14% | 0.39% | 12.37% | 25.16% | 1108.63% | 19 Mar 1997 | 445.56 B |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4133.590 | 2.45% | 0.74% | 0.94% | 0.66% | 10.52% | 5.06% | 313.36% | 7 Jun 2007 | 317.12 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 64367.270 | 2.40% | 1.18% | 0.35% | 0.47% | 7.60% | 7.53% | 6336.73% | 16 Dec 1996 | 2.18 T |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1077.740 | 2.05% | 3.31% | 2.73% | 0.39% | 13.66% | - | 7.77% | 15 Dec 2021 | 24.67 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2955.080 | 1.74% | -2.01% | -4.39% | 0.84% | 10.09% | 24.17% | 195.51% | 4 Dec 2018 | 60.64 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 17902.580 | 1.67% | -1.67% | -2.72% | 0.61% | 6.76% | 17.08% | 1690.26% | 9 Jul 1999 | 105.23 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3256.100 | 1.42% | 0.97% | -0.51% | 0.22% | 7.92% | 12.27% | 225.61% | 19 Oct 2006 | 577.18 B |
| Hpam Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2731.849 | 1.24% | 2.06% | 14.09% | -0.10% | 14.53% | 21.40% | 173.18% | 2 Nov 2009 | 529.34 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Usd Kelas A | 0.948 | 0.89% | 3.12% | 2.95% | -0.77% | 3.18% | - | -5.20% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.18 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific Usd Kelas A | 0.936 | 1.42% | 5.07% | -3.68% | -1.59% | -4.80% | -32.78% | -6.40% | 28 Oct 2016 | 5.27 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity Usd Kelas A | 0.594 | -1.77% | -0.75% | -10.00% | -1.88% | -18.08% | -51.87% | -40.60% | 15 Jun 2020 | 7.04 M |
Provided by AIT, last update 5 Januari 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 08 January 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:00 PM | DE | Balance of Trade NOV | €17.8B | €17.9B | €17.2B |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Exports MoM NOV | -0.20% | 0.30% | |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Factory Orders MoM NOV | -3.70% | 1.00% | 2.90% |
| Tuesday, 09 January 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:01 AM | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY DEC | 2.60% | 2.10% | |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production MoM NOV | -0.40% | 0.20% | 0.60% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Balance of Trade NOV | $-64.3B | $-65B | $-64.8B |
| 8:30 PM | US | Exports NOV | $258.8B | $252.8B | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Imports NOV | $323.0B | $317.6B | |
| 10:00 PM | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index JAN | 40 | 41 | |
| Wednesday, 10 January 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/05 | -7.418M | ||
| 5:30 PM | DE | 10-Year Bund Auction | 2.45% | ||
| 10:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/05 | -5.503M | ||
| 10:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/05 | 10.9M | ||
| CN | New Yuan Loans DEC | CNY1090B | CNY1225.0B | ||
| Thursday, 11 January 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC | 4.00% | 3.80% | 3.90% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate MoM DEC | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate YoY DEC | 3.10% | 3.20% | 3.30% |
| 8:30 PM | US | CPI DEC | 307.051 | 305.7 | |
| 8:30 PM | US | CPI s.a DEC | 307.917 | 308.2 | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims JAN/06 | 202K | 210K | 209.0K |
| Friday, 12 January 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.34% | ||
| 2:00 AM | US | Monthly Budget Statement DEC | $-314B | $-90.0B | |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Current Account NOV | ¥2582.8B | ¥2385.1B | ¥2510B |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate YoY DEC | -0.50% | -0.70% | |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate MoM DEC | -0.50% | -0.20% | |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PPI YoY DEC | -3.00% | -3.20% | |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Balance of Trade DEC | $68.39B | $ 76B | |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Exports YoY DEC | 0.50% | 0.90% | |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Imports YoY DEC | -0.60% | -0.50% | |
| 2:00 PM | GB | GDP MoM NOV | -0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | GDP 3-Month Avg NOV | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Goods Trade Balance NOV | £-17.032B | £-16.5B | |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU NOV | £-4.828B | £-4.2B | |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Industrial Production MoM NOV | -0.80% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Manufacturing Production MoM NOV | -1.10% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 8:30 PM | US | PPI MoM DEC | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Core PPI MoM DEC | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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