Cermati Invest Weekly Update 9 Oktober 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | -0.74% | 6,888.52 |
| IDX LQ45 | -0.65% | 946.51 |
| IDX 30 | -0.96% | 488.63 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -0.29% | 7,434.95 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -0.34% | 3,626.18 |
| USD/IDR | 1.38% | 15,663.00 |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
Market Review
Volume transaksi pada IHSG kembali menurun. Pekan lalu dari dalam negeri melaporkan sejumlah data ekonomi dari data inflasi dan posisi cadangan devisa. Dari Amerika, sentiment datang dari laporan tingkat pengangguran dan dampak dari tingginya imbal hasil obligasi.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -0.85% | 1,832.59 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -8.79% | 82.81 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -4.43% | 3,600 |
| Natural Gas | 13.69% | 3.33 |
| Newcastle Coal | -12.55% | 140.00 |
| Nickel | -0.81% | 18,543 |
| Tin | 2.92% | 24,644 |
| Copper | -2.74% | 8,044 |
| Aluminium | -4.43% | 2,243 |
| US Soybeans | -0.88% | 1,263.75 |
| Silver | -3.05% | 21.77 |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
Economic Data
Berdasarkan data perdagangan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) selama periode 2-6 Oktober 2023, rata-rata nilai transaksi harian Bursa pekan ini merosot 11,72% menjadi Rp10,32 triliun dari Rp11,69 triliun pada pekan sebelumnya. Penurunan juga terjadi pada rata-rata volume transaksi, yaitu sebesar 26,10% menjadi sebesar 18,12 miliar lembar saham dari 24,52 miliar lembar saham pada sepekan lalu.
Pekan lalu, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi sebesar 2,28% secara tahunan (year on year/ yoy) pada September 2023. Sedangkan inflasi bulanan terealisasi 0,19%. Penyumbang inflasi terbesar secara yoy adalah kelompok makanan, minuman, dan tembakau sebesar 2,28%. Lalu, diikuti kelompok pakaian dan alas kaki dengan andil inflasi 1,08% serta perumahan, air, listrik, dan bahan bakar rumah tangga sebesar 0,05%.
Bank Indonesia (BI) melaporkan posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia pada akhir September 2023 mencapai US$134,9 miliar. Turun US$2,2 miliar dibandingkan dengan posisi pada akhir Agustus 2023 sebesar US$137,1 miliar. Berdasarkan siaran pers BI, Jumat (6/10/2023) penurunan posisi cadangan devisa tersebut antara lain dipengaruhi oleh pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah dan kebutuhan untuk stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah sebagai langkah antisipasi dampak rambatan meningkatnya ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.30% | 33,407.58 |
| S&P 500 | 0.48% | 4,308.50 |
| FTSE 100 | -1.49% | 7,494.58 |
| DAX | -1.02% | 15,229.77 |
| Nikkei 225 | -2.60% | 31,030.50 |
| Hang Seng | -1.93% | 17,466.50 |
| Shanghai | 0.00% | 3,110.48 |
| KOSPI | -2.29% | 2,408.73 |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
Regional Info
Dari Amerika Serikat, pertumbuhan lapangan kerja AS pada bulan September mengalahkan ekspektasi pasar, tingkat pengangguran tidak berubah di angka 3,8%. Pertumbuhan lapangan kerja AS melonjak pada bulan September, menunjukkan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja masih cukup kuat bagi Bank Sentral AS/The Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan suku bunga tahun ini, meskipun pertumbuhan upah berada pada tingkat moderat. Namun ketidakpastian masih menyelimuti perekonomian AS di tengah melonjaknya imbal hasil Treasury AS dan disfungsi politik di Washington. Akibatnya jutaan orang Amerika melanjutkan pembayaran pinjaman mahasiswa pada bulan ini, yang menurut para ekonom akan membebani belanja konsumen, dan berdampak pada pembelian barang-barang manufaktur, rumah, serta perjalanan dan hiburan yang akan bertahan lebih lama. Sementara itu dari komentar pejabat The Fed terkait suku bunga, Presiden The Fed San Francisco, Mary Daly di Economic Club of New York mengatakan dengan kebijakan moneter AS yang kini lebih terbatas dan kenaikan yield Treasury AS baru-baru ini, memungkinkan The Fed tidak perlu menaikkan suku bunga lagi. Pekan ini investor menunggu data inflasi harga konsumen bulan September dan pembacaan indeks harga produsen, investor juga menanti musim laporan laba kuartalan mendatang, dengan bank-bank besar termasuk JPMorgan Chase yang akan melaporkan laporannya pekan ini.
Pada pekan ini, China akan merilis data inflasi dan data neraca perdagangan bulan September. China mencatatkan inflasi periode Agustus 2023 sebesar 0,1% (yoy) dibandingkan periode Juli yang mengalami deflasi 0,3%. Kenaikan harga di China lebih terkendali dibanding perkiraan konsensus sebesar 0,2%. Diketahui neraca dagang China mengalami penurunan surplus pada Agustus 2023 menjadi US$ 68,2 miliar, di bawah perkiraan konsensus sebesar US$ 70,6 miliar. Penurunan neraca dagang China tentunya berdampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian global, sebab China merupakan salah satu pusat perdagangan dunia.
Insight 2023 4th Quarter, 2nd week
IHSG, bergerak dalam area 6726(S2)—6839(S1)—6940(R1)—7046(R2), rebound sebentar, kemudian koreksi kembali. Perlu lebih hati-hati apabila rupiah melemah.
RUPIAH, pekan ini berada di antara 15515—15759 rupiah per 1 dolar Amerika. Kemungkinan menguat terlebih dahulu, kemudian melemah lagi.
EMAS, menjelang data inflasi US pekan ini memungkinkan emas dunia kembali naik di atas 1839 menuju 1879 US dollar per troyounce. Harga emas dalam negeri berkisar antara 913938 - 955167 rupiah per gram logam mulia, Sedangkan untuk emas perhiasan berkisar 700914 per gram.
CERMATI, Indeks Srikehati, FTSE Indonesia & Bisnis 27. Sejak awal 2023 Indeks sektor yang stabil adalah Transportasi & Non cyclicals, sedangkan yang bergerak up trend Basic Industry.
CRYPTO, sideways cenderung koreksi untuk crypto dengan market kapitalisasi besar, terutama top 10.
USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Flexi Plus | 1590.02 | 2.25% | 6.33% | -0.39% | -2.27% | -5.57% | -0.31% | 59.00% | 2 Mar 2011 | 39.65 B |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1872.42 | -0.67% | -0.22% | 2.36% | 9.27% | 4.75% | 52.93% | 87.24% | 21 Dec 2017 | 29.37 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1412.36 | -0.68% | -0.04% | 1.77% | 2.93% | 2.85% | 16.05% | 41.24% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.31 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3140.99 | -1.35% | 0.34% | 2.95% | 2.57% | -3.64% | 42.32% | 214.10% | 22 Apr 2008 | 103.08 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1366.79 | -1.65% | 1.71% | 5.34% | 7.53% | 5.23% | 57.48% | 36.68% | 25 Sep 2017 | 61.03 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1760.56 | -1.74% | 3.74% | 10.03% | 10.67% | 4.39% | 55.59% | 76.06% | 28 Dec 2018 | 295.03 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9245.56 | -1.88% | -1.25% | 2.90% | 4.10% | 3.02% | 29.31% | 824.56% | 3 Jun 2002 | 437.88 B |
| Trim Kombinasi 2 | 2710.52 | -1.97% | 3.10% | 9.44% | 9.50% | 4.20% | 38.29% | 171.05% | 10 Nov 2006 | 23.75 B |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1210.16 | -2.20% | -1.22% | 2.56% | 3.66% | 2.86% | 19.07% | 21.02% | 8 Sep 2016 | 138.66 B |
| Trim Syariah Berimbang | 3141.93 | -3.42% | 1.37% | 5.82% | 7.52% | 1.60% | 29.56% | 214.19% | 27 Dec 2006 | 20.20 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1599.26 | 0.48% | 1.15% | 2.20% | 3.40% | 4.46% | 13.19% | 59.93% | 8 Jun 2015 | 146.45 B |
| Principal Cash Fund Syariah 2 | 1067.92 | 0.47% | 0.70% | 1.74% | 2.74% | 3.53% | - | 6.79% | 1 Dec 2020 | 13.21 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1409.53 | 0.41% | 1.21% | 2.37% | 3.49% | 4.40% | 12.95% | 40.95% | 23 Dec 2016 | 685.84 B |
| Principal Cash Fund | 1762.19 | 0.40% | 0.86% | 1.88% | 2.93% | 3.51% | 10.29% | 76.22% | 23 Dec 2011 | 132.61 B |
| Danareksa Seruni Pasar Uang Iii | 1650.86 | 0.40% | 1.04% | 2.09% | 3.08% | 3.89% | 11.51% | 65.09% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.44 T |
| Sam Dana Kas | 1358.14 | 0.37% | 0.97% | 2.03% | 3.13% | 3.95% | 10.50% | 35.81% | 10 Feb 2017 | 200.66 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Lancar Syariah | 1687.54 | 0.36% | 0.90% | 1.95% | 2.98% | 3.75% | 10.60% | 68.75% | 28 Jun 2013 | 145.61 B |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1518.54 | 0.36% | 1.15% | 2.27% | 3.41% | 4.39% | 12.96% | 51.85% | 10 Sep 2015 | 128.84 B |
| Trim Kas 2 Kelas A | 1783.58 | 0.35% | 1.07% | 2.13% | 3.20% | 4.13% | 12.70% | 78.36% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.74 T |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1339.02 | 0.35% | 1.07% | 2.15% | 3.22% | 4.16% | 11.56% | 33.90% | 30 Dec 2016 | 377.83 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Likuid | 1804.50 | 0.34% | 0.94% | 1.94% | 2.93% | 3.67% | 10.25% | 80.45% | 27 Dec 2012 | 598.11 B |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1587.67 | 0.34% | 1.03% | 2.08% | 3.15% | 4.18% | 12.85% | 58.77% | 12 Jun 2015 | 3.87 T |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1354.49 | 0.34% | 1.06% | 2.11% | 3.06% | 3.60% | 9.37% | 35.45% | 8 Sep 2016 | 40.94 B |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1132.62 | 0.34% | 1.03% | 2.04% | 3.08% | 3.89% | 10.39% | 13.26% | 12 Jul 2016 | 176.04 B |
| Hpam Ultima Money Market | 1514.53 | 0.33% | 1.04% | 2.16% | 3.43% | 4.34% | 14.36% | 51.45% | 10 Jun 2015 | 622.70 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1479.73 | 0.31% | 0.97% | 2.34% | 3.38% | 4.04% | 13.16% | 47.97% | 13 Apr 2018 | 2.68 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4651.3618 | 0.41% | 1.52% | 3.33% | 5.31% | 6.93% | 23.07% | 365.14% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.95 T |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1136.358 | 0.36% | 1.28% | 2.84% | 4.68% | 5.98% | 20.20% | 13.64% | 23 May 2019 | 4.89 T |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1090.56 | -0.43% | -1.54% | 3.84% | 4.38% | 7.27% | - | 9.06% | 21 Oct 2020 | 3.28 B |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1029.08 | -1.23% | -1.64% | 1.95% | 3.08% | 5.84% | - | 2.91% | 1 Sep 2022 | 4.22 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1557.4 | -1.25% | -1.37% | 2.87% | 4.82% | 5.57% | 16.31% | 55.74% | 16 Aug 2016 | 383.99 B |
| Bni-Am Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1571.63 | -2.10% | -2.67% | 0.95% | 3.85% | 7.03% | 16.18% | 57.16% | 16 Jun 2016 | 78.60 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2429.24 | -2.19% | -2.66% | 0.10% | 2.76% | 5.81% | 11.77% | 142.92% | 8 Dec 2011 | 191.50 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2700.33 | 1.28% | 12.87% | 12.03% | 9.18% | 2.00% | 38.35% | 170.03% | 2 Nov 2009 | 680.20 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18218.21 | -1.19% | -1.25% | 5.64% | 6.15% | 5.00% | 48.34% | 1721.82% | 9 Jul 1999 | 109.58 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2535.35 | -1.69% | -4.53% | 8.74% | 8.62% | 3.36% | 83.82% | 153.54% | 5 Sep 2018 | 25.56 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4362.44 | -1.84% | 1.10% | 9.65% | 12.20% | 4.58% | 61.82% | 336.24% | 18 Apr 2008 | 213.21 B |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1203.23 | -1.94% | -0.56% | 4.44% | 9.01% | 7.35% | 46.18% | 20.32% | 29 Mar 2018 | 74.43 B |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2259.57 | -1.98% | 6.94% | 14.91% | 12.51% | 8.54% | 56.59% | 125.96% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.03 T |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 3011.08 | -2.02% | -4.06% | 7.72% | 8.80% | 7.15% | 81.80% | 201.11% | 4 Dec 2018 | 72.90 B |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1259.60 | -2.28% | -1.77% | 2.98% | 6.59% | 5.26% | - | 25.96% | 3 Nov 2020 | 28.02 B |
| Trim Kapital | 12094.51 | -2.35% | -0.24% | 7.50% | 10.48% | 3.31% | 57.68% | 1109.45% | 19 Mar 1997 | 347.56 B |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1044.09 | -2.62% | -0.51% | 5.71% | 7.33% | 4.30% | - | 4.41% | 15 Dec 2021 | 34.44 B |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1164.02 | -3.05% | -0.92% | 5.75% | 10.99% | 5.62% | 43.39% | 16.40% | 8 Jun 2018 | 717.81 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 6 Oktober 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 09 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production MoM AUG | -0.80% | -0.10% | 1.00% |
| 8:00 PM | US | Fed Logan Speech | |||
| 8:15 PM | US | Fed Barr Speech | |||
| Tuesday, 10 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:30 AM | US | Fed Jefferson Speech | |||
| 6:01 AM | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY SEP | 4.30% | 2.00% | |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Current Account AUG | ¥2771.7B | ¥3090.9B | ¥2920.0B |
| 8:30 PM | US | Fed Bostic Speech | |||
| Wednesday, 11 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:30 AM | US | Fed Waller Speech | |||
| 2:00 AM | US | Fed Kashkari Speech | |||
| 5:00 AM | US | Fed Daly Speech | |||
| 6:00 AM | JP | Reuters Tankan Index OCT | 4 | 2 | |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate MoM Final SEP | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate YoY Final SEP | 6.10% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 3:15 PM | US | Fed Bowman Speech | |||
| 6:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate OCT/06 | 7.53% | ||
| 7:30 PM | US | PPI MoM SEP | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Core PPI MoM SEP | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 9:15 PM | US | Fed Waller Speech | |||
| 11:15 PM | US | Fed Bostic Speech | |||
| CN | New Yuan Loans SEP | CNY1360B | CNY2500B | CNY 2100B | |
| Thursday, 12 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | FOMC Minutes | |||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/06 | -4.21M | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders MoM AUG | -1.10% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Machinery Orders YoY AUG | -13.00% | -7.30% | -9.00% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | GDP MoM AUG | -0.50% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | GDP 3-Month Avg AUG | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Goods Trade Balance AUG | £-14.064B | £ -14.2B | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU AUG | £-2.361B | £-2.5B | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Industrial Production MoM AUG | -0.70% | -0.20% | -0.20% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Manufacturing Production MoM AUG | -0.80% | -0.40% | -0.10% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM SEP | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP | 4.30% | 4.10% | 4.10% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate MoM SEP | 0.60% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Inflation Rate YoY SEP | 3.70% | 3.60% | 3.80% |
| 7:30 PM | US | CPI SEP | 307.026 | 307.372 | 308.1 |
| 7:30 PM | US | CPI s.a SEP | 306.269 | 307.5 | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims OCT/07 | 207K | 210K | 208.0K |
| 10:00 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change OCT/06 | -2.224M | ||
| 10:00 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change OCT/06 | 6.481M | ||
| Friday, 13 October 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:00 AM | US | Fed Bostic Speech | |||
| 1:00 AM | US | Monthly Budget Statement SEP | $89B | $ -30B | |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate YoY SEP | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate MoM SEP | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PPI YoY SEP | -3.00% | -2.40% | -2.20% |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Balance of Trade SEP | $68.36B | $70B | $ 64B |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Exports YoY SEP | -8.80% | -8.30% | -7.00% |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Imports YoY SEP | -7.30% | -6.00% | -5.00% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Export Prices MoM SEP | 1.30% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Import Prices MoM SEP | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 8:00 PM | US | Fed Harker Speech | |||
| 9:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel OCT | 68.1 | 67.4 | 68 |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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