Cermati Invest Weekly Update 18 Desember 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IDX Composite | 0.44% | 7,190.99 |
| IDX LQ45 | 0.80% | 957.97 |
| IDX 30 | 0.68% | 490.57 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 1.33% | 7,465.00 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 1.28% | 3,626.87 |
| USD/IDR | 0.15% | 15,528.80 |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
Market Review
Pekan lalu pergerakan IHSG kembali positif. Hal ini didukung dari beberapa sentimen pasar baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri. Dari dalam negeri, terdapat laporan data necara dagang bulan November oleh Badan Pusat Statistik. Dari luar negeri, terdapat laporan tingkat suku bunga dari bank sentral Amerika, serta data produksi industri dari China.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 0.82% | 2,019.79 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 0.79% | 71.79 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -1.28% | 3,692 |
| Natural Gas | -4.34% | 2.47 |
| Newcastle Coal | -3.31% | 146.00 |
| Nickel | 1.60% | 17,075 |
| Tin | 3.26% | 25,367 |
| Copper | 0.93% | 8,527 |
| Aluminium | 5.11% | 2,243 |
| US Soybeans | 0.96% | 1,316.50 |
| Silver | 3.84% | 24.17 |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
Economic Data
IHSG selama sepekan kembali ditutup dengan penguatan 0.44% pada posisi 7.190,98. Kapitalisasi pasar bursa juga tercatat mengalami kenaikan sebesar 0.54% menjadi Rp11,54 triliun dari Rp11,47 triliun pada pekan sebelumnya. Rata-rata nilai transaksi harian bursa juga terpantau meningkat 6.21% menjadi Rp14,99 triliun dari Rp14,12 triliun pada penutupan pekan lalu. Adapun, rata-rata volume transaksi harian tercatat mengalami penurunan.
Pada pekan lalu, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan data neraca dagang Indonesia yang masih surplus, surplus kali ini mencapai US$2,41 miliar dengan ekspor yang mencapai US$22 miliar, turun 8.56% dibandingkan bulan November 2022. Adapun, secara bulanan nilai ekspor turun tipis sebesar 0.67%. Sementara impor mencapai US$19,59 miliar, tumbuh 3.29% secara year on year (yoy). Secara bulanan impor tumbuh 4.89%. Dengan hasil ini, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa surplus ini merupakan surplus beruntun untuk ke-43 kali.
Pekan ini, fokus pelaku pasar akan tertuju pada hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada 21 Desember 2023. RDG BI diyakini akan kembali menahan suku bunga acuan di level 6%. Pelaku pasar tampaknya juga berspekulasi terhadap potensi clue mengenai peluang pemangkasan suku bunga acuan BI pada 2024.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | 2.92% | 37,305.16 |
| S&P 500 | 2.49% | 4,719.19 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.29% | 7,576.36 |
| DAX | -0.05% | 16,751.44 |
| Nikkei 225 | 2.05% | 32,970.55 |
| Hang Seng | 2.79% | 16,790.00 |
| Shanghai | -0.91% | 2,942.56 |
| KOSPI | 1.82% | 2,563.56 |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
Regional Info
Pada Kamis dini hari waktu Indonesia (14/12/2023), bank sentral Amerika Serikat/The Fed mengumumkan bahwa suku bunga masih ditahan di angka 5.25-5.5%. Suku bunga yang ditahan ini merupakan ketiga kalinya yang dimulai sejak September 2023. Chairman The Fed, Jerome Powell dalam konferensi pers, mengatakan jika inflasi sudah bergerak sesuai keinginan The Fed. Namun, dia mengingatkan jika inflasi masih tinggi dan upaya menurunkan inflasi ke target mereka yakni 2% bisa berubah dan masih belum pasti.
Data makroekonomi lainnya, produksi industri China meningkat sebesar 6.6% tahun-ke-tahun (yoy) pada November 2023. Angka ini menyusul kenaikan 4.6% pada bulan sebelumnya dan mengalahkan perkiraan pasar sebesar 5.6%. Ini merupakan laju pertumbuhan tercepat sejak Februari 2022. Penjualan ritel China juga melonjak sebesar 10.1% yoy pada November 2023, jauh lebih cepat dibandingkan kenaikan 7.6% pada bulan sebelumnya dan dibandingkan dengan konsensus pasar sebesar 12.5%. Ini adalah pertumbuhan omzet ritel selama 11 bulan berturut-turut dan ekspansi tercepat sejak bulan Mei.
Insight 2023 4th Quarter, 12th week
IHSG, berusaha terus naik menuju 7297—7369 Window Dressing dengan Support di sekitar 7068 sampai awal 2024 nanti. Ke depannya IHSG diprediksikan mencapai 7453.
RUPIAH, terhadap dollar Amerika diperkirakan antara 15380—15590 per 1 dollar Amerika.
EMAS, pekan ini diperkirakan akan bergerak mix di area 1982—2034 US dollar per troy ounce, terkoreksi dan kemudian naik kembali. Setelah mencapai 2149 US dollar per troy ounce (all time high) awal Desember 2023, emas terkoreksi ke 1973 US dollar per troy ounce. Ke depannya, emas dunia akan kembali mencatatkan angka yang lebih tinggi lagi yaitu 2318—2359 US dollar per troy ounce. Dalam rupiah, pekan ini harga emas masih di antara 993550—1005881 rupiah per gram.
CERMATI, Year to Date, IHSG performanya positif. Diikuti oleh, Indeks Sri-Kehati, LQ45, FTSE Indonesia dan MSCI Indonesia. Sedangkan Desember 2023 ini, Indeks LQ45, IDX30 performanya di atas IHSG . Jadi seharusnya, reksa dana yang mirroring indeks tersebut, membukukan NAB yang bagus sepanjang Desember 2023 ini. Menjelang Window Dressing akhir tahun 2023 dan awal tahun 2024, Cermati top 5 emiten atau saham yang ada dalam indeks sector Energy dan Banking.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2023
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Hpam Flexi Plus | 1715.69 | 8.06% | 7.18% | 8.92% | 5.45% | 4.75% | -3.36% | 71.57% | 2 Mar 2011 | 39.70 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9268.38 | 1.33% | -0.83% | -0.57% | 4.36% | 3.79% | 12.84% | 826.84% | 3 Jun 2002 | 155.44 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1430.17 | 1.08% | 0.93% | 1.57% | 4.23% | 4.41% | 13.43% | 43.02% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.16 B |
| Sam Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1816.06 | -0.68% | -5.32% | -1.90% | 5.98% | 3.63% | 9.50% | 81.61% | 21 Dec 2017 | 30.62 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1685.67 | -2.32% | -7.75% | 0.66% | 5.96% | 3.57% | 25.85% | 68.57% | 28 Dec 2018 | 294.08 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1614.10 | 0.43% | 1.24% | 2.22% | 4.36% | 4.65% | 13.23% | 61.41% | 8 Jun 2015 | 172.19 B |
| Cipta Dana Kas Syariah | 1180.84 | 0.43% | 1.05% | 1.68% | 3.54% | 3.92% | 8.48% | 18.08% | 28 Jan 2019 | 8.58 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1423.09 | 0.42% | 1.25% | 2.46% | 4.48% | 4.69% | 12.88% | 42.31% | 23 Dec 2016 | 707.10 B |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1599.81 | 0.41% | 1.02% | 2.05% | 3.94% | 4.16% | 12.58% | 59.98% | 12 Jun 2015 | 3.18 T |
| Eastspring Investment Cash Reserve Kelas A | 1612.97 | 0.41% | 1.01% | 1.66% | 3.20% | 3.30% | 6.61% | 61.30% | 3 Jul 2013 | 48.18 B |
| Hpam Ultima Money Market | 1527.83 | 0.40% | 1.10% | 2.17% | 4.34% | 4.47% | 13.99% | 52.78% | 10 Jun 2015 | 470.83 B |
| Uobam Esg Pasar Uang Indonesia | 1084.58 | 0.40% | 0.92% | 1.62% | 3.23% | 3.30% | 7.83% | 8.46% | 9 Oct 2020 | 100.26 B |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1531.43 | 0.39% | 1.11% | 2.28% | 4.29% | 4.51% | 12.66% | 53.14% | 10 Sep 2015 | 124.36 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1350.92 | 0.39% | 1.13% | 2.23% | 4.14% | 4.35% | 11.72% | 35.09% | 30 Dec 2016 | 452.58 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Uobam Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 990.38 | 3.19% | 5.11% | 5.69% | 3.94% | 2.93% | - | -0.96% | 12 Jan 2021 | 80.58 B |
| Bni-Am Pendapatan Tetap Quality Long Duration Fund | 1614.02 | 1.72% | 1.24% | 0.33% | 6.66% | 6.78% | 12.49% | 61.40% | 16 Jun 2016 | 66.88 B |
| Danareksa Melati Pendapatan Utama | 1824.02 | 1.71% | 1.78% | 0.14% | 5.08% | 5.44% | 8.25% | 82.40% | 27 Sep 2012 | 51.64 B |
| Cipta Bond | 1744.11 | 1.62% | 1.52% | 0.98% | 4.50% | 4.83% | 6.65% | 74.41% | 2 Jan 2019 | 17.82 B |
| Hpam Government Bond | 1538.73 | 1.48% | 1.44% | 0.55% | 6.18% | 6.48% | 11.12% | 53.87% | 18 May 2016 | 20.93 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2496.48 | 1.38% | 0.97% | 0.28% | 5.61% | 5.92% | 10.33% | 149.65% | 8 Dec 2011 | 145.94 B |
| Bni-Am Short Duration Bonds Index Kelas R1 | 1041.62 | 1.06% | 0.66% | 0.05% | 4.87% | 5.65% | - | 4.16% | 1 Sep 2022 | 3.68 B |
| Danakita Obligasi Negara | 1069.60 | 0.88% | 0.67% | -0.01% | 3.81% | 4.07% | - | 6.96% | 26 Mar 2021 | 53.72 B |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1102.15 | 0.80% | 0.58% | 0.38% | 5.49% | 5.96% | - | 10.22% | 21 Oct 2020 | 10.44 B |
| Bni-Am Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1579.30 | 0.79% | 0.48% | 0.56% | 6.29% | 6.30% | 13.14% | 57.93% | 16 Aug 2016 | 423.03 B |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4696.38 | 0.47% | 1.27% | 2.90% | 6.33% | 6.66% | 22.49% | 369.64% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.60 T |
| Trim Dana Tetap 2 | 3024.43 | 0.33% | 0.82% | 2.26% | 4.06% | 4.07% | 14.45% | 202.44% | 13 May 2008 | 454.56 B |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1141.02 | 0.32% | 0.64% | 2.04% | 5.10% | 5.36% | 18.51% | 14.10% | 23 May 2019 | 4.17 T |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Idx Esg Leaders Plus Kelas A | 997.05 | 7.76% | 4.62% | 1.55% | 5.70% | 4.99% | - | -0.30% | 12 Jan 2022 | 20.44 B |
| Sam Indonesian Equity Fund | 2286.99 | 4.74% | -1.76% | 9.18% | 13.84% | 15.57% | 17.28% | 128.70% | 18 Oct 2011 | 1.03 T |
| Danareksa Msci Indonesia Esg Screened Kelas A | 1070.77 | 3.34% | -0.94% | -0.18% | 5.84% | 5.57% | - | 7.08% | 7 Sep 2022 | 121.18 B |
| Syailendra Msci Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1158.80 | 3.26% | -1.91% | -1.77% | 10.50% | 9.49% | 13.51% | 15.88% | 8 Jun 2018 | 864.39 B |
| Bni-Am Indeks Idx Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1158.09 | 2.70% | -0.09% | 1.72% | 4.89% | 4.22% | - | 15.81% | 27 Jan 2022 | 1.51 B |
| Trim Kapital Plus | 4342.38 | 2.45% | -2.67% | 1.52% | 11.68% | 10.01% | 31.16% | 334.24% | 18 Apr 2008 | 267.25 B |
| Trimegah Ftse Indonesia Low Volatility Factor Index | 1260.47 | 2.39% | -0.51% | -1.84% | 6.67% | 6.41% | - | 26.05% | 3 Nov 2020 | 30.63 B |
| Uobam Sustainable Equity Indonesia | 987.21 | 2.16% | -3.38% | -4.60% | 1.11% | 0.69% | - | -1.28% | 4 Aug 2021 | 136.05 B |
| Batavia Disruptive Equity | 1054.94 | 2.13% | -0.98% | 0.93% | 8.44% | 7.31% | - | 5.49% | 15 Dec 2021 | 24.67 B |
| Trim Kapital | 11908.37 | 1.78% | -4.10% | -1.03% | 8.78% | 7.38% | 27.60% | 1090.84% | 19 Mar 1997 | 445.56 B |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1182.04 | 1.73% | -1.84% | -2.42% | 7.09% | 6.69% | 18.37% | 18.20% | 29 Mar 2018 | 75.34 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 63024.74 | 1.47% | -2.28% | -1.24% | 3.15% | 2.36% | 7.78% | 6202.47% | 16 Dec 1996 | 2.18 T |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3198.31 | 1.05% | -2.33% | -1.43% | 4.06% | 3.10% | 13.75% | 219.83% | 19 Oct 2006 | 577.18 B |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4035.48 | 1.05% | -3.35% | -0.63% | 5.31% | 4.61% | 5.22% | 303.55% | 7 Jun 2007 | 317.12 B |
| Principal Total Return Equity Fund Kelas O | 3268.90 | 0.76% | -6.16% | -4.14% | -2.45% | -3.19% | -5.99% | 226.89% | 1 Jul 2005 | 35.24 B |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 12765.72 | 0.58% | -6.19% | -2.36% | -7.89% | -9.01% | -9.74% | 1176.57% | 27 May 1997 | 68.67 B |
| Hpam Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2698.00 | 0.29% | -1.35% | 11.32% | 9.09% | 6.60% | 25.34% | 169.80% | 2 Nov 2009 | 529.34 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2882.83 | -0.16% | -5.11% | -3.46% | 4.16% | 3.19% | 26.75% | 188.28% | 4 Dec 2018 | 60.64 B |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Usd Kelas A | 0.9528 | 2.66% | 3.48% | 3.21% | 3.69% | 3.60% | - | -4.72% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.18 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific Usd Kelas A | 0.9234 | 1.37% | -1.01% | -5.86% | -4.34% | -6.65% | -30.82% | -7.66% | 28 Oct 2016 | 5.27 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity Usd Kelas A | 0.6027 | 0.15% | -3.23% | -8.33% | -13.93% | -15.13% | -48.21% | -39.73% | 15 Jun 2020 | 7.04 M |
Provided by AIT, last update 15 Desember 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 18 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:00 PM | DE | Ifo Business Climate DEC | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.1 |
| 10:00 PM | US | NAHB Housing Market Index DEC | 34.0 | 36.0 | 32.0 |
| CN | FDI (YTD) YoY NOV | -9.4% | -10.0% | ||
| Tuesday, 19 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 10:00 AM | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 6:00 PM | GB | CBI Industrial Trends Orders DEC | -35.0 | -22.0 | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Building Permits Prel NOV | 1.498M | 1.470M | 1.48M |
| 8:30 PM | US | Building Permits MoM Prel NOV | 1.8% | -1.2% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Housing Starts NOV | 1.372M | 1.36M | 1.36M |
| 8:30 PM | US | Housing Starts MoM NOV | 1.9% | -0.8% | |
| Wednesday, 20 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:00 AM | US | Net Long-term TIC Flows OCT | $-1.7B | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change DEC/15 | -2.349M | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Balance of Trade NOV | ¥-662.5B | ¥-962.4B | ¥-890.0B |
| 6:50 AM | JP | Exports YoY NOV | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| 8:15 AM | CN | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.5% | 3.5% | |
| 8:15 AM | CN | Loan Prime Rate 5Y DEC | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 2:00 PM | DE | GfK Consumer Confidence JAN | -27.8 | -27 | -24 |
| 2:00 PM | DE | PPI MoM NOV | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Inflation Rate YoY NOV | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Inflation Rate MoM NOV | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 7:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate DEC/15 | 7.1% | ||
| 8:30 PM | US | Current Account Q3 | $-212.1B | $-207B | |
| 10:00 PM | US | CB Consumer Confidence DEC | 102.0 | 104.3 | 104.0 |
| 10:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales NOV | 3.79M | 3.77M | 3.79M |
| 10:00 PM | US | Existing Home Sales MoM NOV | -4.1% | -0.5% | |
| 10:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change DEC/15 | -4.259M | ||
| 10:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change DEC/15 | 0.408M | ||
| Thursday, 21 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:30 PM | ID | Interest Rate Decision | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 6:00 PM | GB | CBI Distributive Trades DEC | -11.0 | -6.0 | |
| 8:30 PM | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 | 2.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 8:30 PM | US | GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3 | 1.7% | 3.5% | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims DEC/16 | 202K | 218K | 209.0K |
| 8:30 PM | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index DEC | -5.9 | -3.0 | -4.0 |
| Friday, 22 December 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Inflation Rate YoY NOV | 3.3% | 2.6% | |
| 6:30 AM | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 2:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales MoM NOV | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Current Account Q3 | £-25.289B | £ -16.3B | |
| 2:00 PM | GB | GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Retail Sales YoY NOV | -2.7% | -1.8% | -2.0% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM NOV | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM NOV | -5.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Personal Income MoM NOV | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Personal Spending MoM NOV | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30 PM | US | PCE Price Index YoY NOV | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| 10:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final DEC | 61.3 | 69.4 | 69.4 |
| 10:00 PM | US | New Home Sales NOV | 0.679M | 0.685M | 0.687M |
| 10:00 PM | US | New Home Sales MoM NOV | -5.6% | 1.2% | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
Baca Juga Cermati Invest Weekly Update Sebelumnya:
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 11 Desember 2023
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 4 Desember 2023
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 27 November 2023
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 20 November 2023