Cermati Invest Weekly Update 30 Desember 2024
Ulasan Pasar
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IHSG | 0.75% | 7,036.57 |
| ISSI | 0.72% | 213.86 |
| IDX30 | 1.70% | 423.21 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 1.13% | 3,208.57 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 1.34% | 6,638.41 |
| USD/IDR | 0.25% | 16,230.00 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
IHSG & Saham Pekan Ini
IHSG, pekan lalu sempat naik ke 7120 walau akhirnya tutup turun ke 7036. IHSG berada di zona negatif, turun sebesar (-)3.92% sejak awal tahun 2024. Dengan volume transaksi yang terus melemah saat musim libur panjang, hampir dipastikan tidak ada window dressing akhir tahun ini, harapan terakhir ada January effect di awal tahun 2025.
Kinerja pasar modal Indonesia sepanjang tahun 2024, IHSG tertinggi 7910 terendah 6698, kapitalisasi pasar Rp13.474 triliun dengan net transaksi Rp15,21 triliun. Hal ini sejalan dengan meningkatnya jumlah investor yang telah mencapai 6,3 juta investor di saham dan 14,77 juta investor di seluruh pasar modal, masing-masing meningkat 20% dibandingkan tahun 2023.
Beberapa resistance gap IHSG ada di 7125 dan 7324, sedangkan support gap terdekat ada di 6983 yang akan dituju selanjutnya bila tidak berhasil naik.
Indeks terbaik sepanjang 2024 masih dipegang oleh Pefindo 25 dan Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) dengan sektor sektor terbaiknya: Energi dan Kesehatan. Sektor Cyclicals, Non-Cyclicals, dan Keuangan berada di zona negative walau berada di atas IHSG.
Saham, jumlah perusahaan yang tercatat di BEI sepanjang 2024 bertambah sebanyak 41 perusahaan, sehingga jumlah keseluruhan perusahaan tercatat BEI mencapai 943 perusahaan. 2 emiten urutan teratas kapitalisasi pasar adalah PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk. (BREN) & Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA).
Pekan ini, cermati emiten: ACES, BREN, BRPT, CUAN, ESSA, PGAS, SCMA, SIDO, TBIG.
Pergerakan Rupiah
Setelah pelemahan nyaris Rp16.500, pekan ini rupiah menguat di area Rp15.937—Rp16.242.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -0.03% | 2,620.00 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 1.15% | 70.26 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | 4.31% | 4,624.00 |
| Natural Gas | -0.85% | 3.38 |
| Newcastle Coal | -0.51% | 126.75 |
| Nickel | 0.00% | 15,876.00 |
| Tin | 0.42% | 28,810.00 |
| Copper | 0.42% | 8,995.00 |
| Aluminium | 0.67% | 2,560.00 |
| US Soybeans | 0.56% | 980.00 |
| Silver | 0.06% | 29.98 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
Emas
Harga emas dunia cenderung sideways dalam area US$2594—US$2654.
Pekan ini harga emas murni dan emas digital masih sama, mendatar dalam kisaran Rp1.320.000—Rp1.390.000. Harga emas fisik atau logam mulia biasanya lebih tinggi Rp60.000—Rp100.000 per gramnya.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | 0.35% | 42,992.21 |
| S&P 500 | 0.67% | 5,970.84 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.81% | 8,149.78 |
| DAX | 0.50% | 19,984.32 |
| Nikkei 225 | 4.08% | 40,281.16 |
| Hang Seng | 1.87% | 20,090.46 |
| Shanghai | 0.95% | 3,400.14 |
| KOSPI | 0.03% | 2,404.77 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Reksa dana, jenis pasar uang dan pendapatan tetap dapat menjadi pilihan yang lebih stabil dan aman.
Reksa dana pendapatan tetap yang memberikan dividen cash dapat menjadi pilihan di awal tahun 2025 ini, seperti Trimegah Fixed Income Plan dan HPAM Pendapatan Tetap Prima.
Surat berharga, dapat cermati beberapa obligasi yang kami pilihkan dalam tabel.
Kinerja Pasar Investasi 2024 Belum Maksimal, Simak Lengkapnya
Pergerakan pasar investasi saham di tahun 2024 merupakan tahun yang penuh gejolak dan tekanan. Walaupun sempat menyentuh level tertinggi sepanjang masa di 7.900, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) berpeluang akan menutup tahun tidak jauh dari level 7.000-an dan tersungkur di zona negatif pada 2024. Begitu juga dengan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat yang bergerak bak roller coaster sepanjang tahun ini. Sempat mencapai posisi di bawah Rp15.000/US$, Mata Uang Garuda sepertinya harus terbang menukik untuk menutup kalender 2024 di posisi Rp16.200-an/US$. Meskipun demikian, para investor harus segera move on, sebab agenda rilis data-data ekonomi baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri sudah menanti di awal 2025. Data seperti inflasi, aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia hingga manufaktur China akan menjadi penggerak pasar keuangan di tengah pekan perdagangan yang singkat. Ulasan mengenai sentimen tersebut tersaji di halaman tiga serta dilengkapi jadwal rilis data ekonomi dan agenda korporasi di halaman empat.
IHSG tidak mendapatkan berkah dari fenomena Santa Claus rally di penghujung tahun ini. Di sisi lain, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS melemah sepanjang pekan terakhir tahun 2024, ditutup di level Rp16.230/US$ pada Jumat (27/12/2024). Dalam sepekan, rupiah terkoreksi sebesar 0.25% dari posisi penutupan pekan sebelumnya di Rp16.185/US$. Penguatan dolar AS dipicu oleh data ekonomi AS yang masih menunjukkan ketahanan, meskipun pasar tenaga kerja mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda perlambatan dengan klaim pengangguran berkelanjutan mencapai 1,91 juta, tertinggi dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Ketegangan geopolitik juga menjadi salah satu faktor penghambat penguatan rupiah. Konflik antara Pakistan dan Afghanistan memicu kekhawatiran akan stabilitas regional, yang berimbas pada meningkatnya risiko pasar di negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia. Selain itu, proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang solid pada 2024, hampir mencapai 3%, semakin mendukung dominasi dolar AS di pasar internasional. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) juga akan merilis data IHK yang hingga saat ini diperkirakan kembali mengalami inflasi secara tahunan/year on year (yoy). Data terakhir mencatat bahwa inflasi tahunan Indonesia sebesar 1.55% atau lebih rendah dibandingkan periode Oktober yang tumbuh sebesar 1.71% yoy namun tetap dalam rentang target Bank Indonesia (BI) yakni di kisaran 1.5%-3.5%. Data inflasi akan dicermati oleh pelaku pasar mengingat hal ini akan menjadi sangat sensitif khususnya apabila angkanya berada di bawah 1.5% yoy.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2024 (YtD)
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1630.95 | 0.52% | 1.48% | 3.04% | 5.79% | 5.88% | 16.32% | 63.09% | 30 Sep 2015 | 134.63 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1503.57 | 0.47% | 1.38% | 2.75% | 5.39% | 5.47% | 14.17% | 50.36% | 23 Dec 2016 | 702.49 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1576.94 | 0.46% | 1.47% | 3.33% | 5.53% | 5.60% | 14.73% | 57.69% | 13 Apr 2018 | 4.08 B |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1894.95 | 0.45% | 1.32% | 2.68% | 5.11% | 5.19% | 13.63% | 89.50% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.25 T |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang III | 1756.41 | 0.44% | 1.31% | 2.83% | 5.35% | 5.42% | 12.57% | 75.64% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.51 T |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1705.90 | 0.44% | 1.31% | 2.67% | 5.36% | 5.47% | 14.77% | 70.59% | 8 Jun 2015 | 213.36 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1424.90 | 0.44% | 1.30% | 2.64% | 5.21% | 5.30% | 13.75% | 42.49% | 30 Dec 2016 | 1.53 T |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1203.91 | 0.43% | 1.31% | 2.60% | 5.21% | 5.29% | 12.66% | 20.39% | 12 Jul 2016 | 478.61 B |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1609.17 | 0.43% | 1.33% | 2.68% | 5.08% | 5.15% | 14.17% | 60.92% | 10 Jun 2015 | 972.78 B |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1682.71 | 0.43% | 1.26% | 2.53% | 4.92% | 5.01% | 13.57% | 68.27% | 12 Jun 2015 | 2.57 T |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1432.70 | 0.40% | 1.19% | 2.38% | 4.68% | 4.76% | 11.63% | 43.27% | 8 Sep 2016 | 123.60 B |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1608.56 | 0.39% | 1.20% | 2.45% | 4.78% | 4.87% | 13.25% | 60.86% | 10 Sep 2015 | 88.33 B |
| Bahana Dana Likuid Kelas G | 1866.64 | 0.37% | 1.22% | 2.46% | 4.74% | 4.81% | 11.30% | 86.66% | 27 May 1997 | 3.84 T |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1328.41 | 0.21% | 1.07% | 2.50% | 5.19% | 5.27% | 12.87% | 32.84% | 19 Jul 2018 | 353.57 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Renewable Energy Fund | 2290.36 | 0.77% | 2.28% | 4.09% | 7.39% | 7.51% | 19.79% | 129.04% | 22 Jun 2011 | 1.25 T |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 5056.83 | 0.62% | 1.87% | 4.16% | 7.36% | 7.47% | 23.05% | 405.68% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.97 T |
| UOBAM Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 1021.72 | 0.61% | 2.25% | 0.07% | 3.17% | 2.84% | 4.14% | 2.17% | 12 Jan 2021 | 120.76 B |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1597.10 | 0.19% | -0.99% | 3.53% | 3.20% | 3.30% | 12.51% | 59.71% | 18 May 2016 | 21.68 B |
| TRIM Dana Tetap 2 Kelas A | 3214.12 | 0.18% | 1.06% | 3.62% | 6.03% | 6.11% | 14.67% | 221.41% | 13 May 2008 | 871.31 B |
| Bahana Obligasi Ganesha Kelas D | 996.81 | 0.06% | 0.40% | 2.21% | 1.45% | 1.53% | 0.63% | -0.32% | 26 Oct 2020 | 320.03 B |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1150.56 | -0.85% | 0.01% | 1.54% | 1.62% | 0.68% | 4.38% | 15.06% | 23 May 2019 | 1.90 T |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3259.49 | 0.56% | -4.19% | 9.69% | 7.04% | 8.21% | 8.43% | 225.95% | 27 Dec 2006 | 22.18 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1758.78 | -1.20% | -8.16% | 7.40% | 2.35% | 3.57% | 4.25% | 75.88% | 28 Dec 2018 | 260.24 B |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2664.58 | -1.48% | -8.29% | 5.08% | 0.36% | 1.54% | 2.11% | 166.46% | 10 Nov 2006 | 27.11 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1431.97 | -2.08% | -5.86% | 3.87% | 5.78% | 7.28% | 29.05% | 43.20% | 25 Sep 2017 | 84.79 B |
| HPAM Flexi Indonesia Sehat Kelas A | 1917.96 | -2.11% | -6.51% | 10.20% | 9.60% | 9.04% | 13.47% | 91.80% | 2 Mar 2011 | 84.79 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| HPAM Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2732.88 | 0.83% | -12.43% | -1.49% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 15.02% | 173.29% | 2 Nov 2009 | 767.69 B |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2323.58 | 0.77% | -1.93% | 6.35% | 0.04% | 3.43% | 17.76% | 132.36% | 18 Oct 2011 | 980.51 B |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4031.68 | 0.35% | -5.64% | 3.94% | -1.83% | -0.60% | 4.31% | 303.17% | 7 Jun 2007 | 159.85 B |
| TRIM Kapital Plus | 4350.74 | -0.26% | -5.47% | 5.96% | -1.34% | -0.48% | 14.31% | 335.07% | 18 Apr 2008 | 407.82 B |
| HPAM Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1935.15 | -0.42% | -10.74% | 3.58% | 17.72% | 16.02% | 86.03% | 93.51% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.70 T |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2228.79 | -2.23% | -7.76% | 9.38% | -4.81% | -3.80% | 3.88% | 122.88% | 5 Sep 2018 | 16.62 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2848.76 | -2.89% | -4.60% | 6.77% | -2.79% | -1.41% | 19.22% | 184.88% | 4 Dec 2018 | 44.15 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | Yth | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Technology Sharia Equity USD | 1.2039 | 2.92% | 5.84% | 6.79% | 24.99% | 21.77% | - | 20.39% | 16 Feb 2022 | 76.09 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.6170 | 2.03% | 3.14% | -1.08% | 1.92% | 3.89% | -37.88% | -38.30% | 15 Jun 2020 | 5.28 M |
| STAR Fixed Income Dollar | 1.0282 | 0.32% | 0.93% | 3.05% | 5.46% | 5.50% | -8.11% | 2.82% | 10 Jul 2017 | 10.02 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.9470 | -0.19% | -4.39% | -6.09% | -0.43% | 1.70% | -23.98% | -5.30% | 28 Oct 2016 | 2.85 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.9569 | -0.70% | -2.79% | 0.77% | 0.16% | 0.24% | -2.87% | -4.31% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.38 M |
| Batavia USD Bond Fund | 1.0226 | -0.98% | -3.34% | -0.79% | -1.63% | -1.54% | - | 2.26% | 18 Oct 2022 | 21.55 M |
| Batavia Global ESG Sharia Equity USD | 1.1706 | -1.80% | -2.16% | 1.90% | 4.87% | 4.70% | 7.15% | 17.06% | 27 Jan 2021 | 13.22 M |
| BRI Melati Premium Dollar | 1.3674 | -1.96% | -4.95% | -0.21% | -3.27% | -3.41% | -4.49% | 36.74% | 19 Feb 2007 | 2.04 M |
| BRI G20 Sharia Equity Fund Dollar | 1.2091 | -2.58% | -3.79% | -5.35% | 5.76% | 5.62% | 5.52% | 20.91% | 3 Dec 2019 | 1.88 M |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
Surat Utang/Obligasi
| NAMA OBLIGASI | ISIN | MATA UANG | KUPON | TANGGAL JATUH TEMPO | INDIKASI HARGA BELI | INDIKASI HARGA JUAL | INDIKASI YIELD | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR0087 | IDG000015207 | IDR | 6.50% | 15-Feb-31 | 97.85 | 96.85 | 6.93% | BBB |
| FR0097 | IDG000020900 | IDR | 7.13% | 15-Jun-43 | 100.75 | 99.75 | 7.05% | BBB |
| PBS005 | IDP000001505 | IDR | 6.75% | 15-Apr-43 | 99.3 | 98.3 | 6.82% | BBB |
| INKP01CCN1 | IDA0001069C2 | IDR | 11.00% | 5-Jun-25 | 101.5 | 100.5 | 7.69% | idA+ |
| LPPI02ACN1 | IDA0001331A0 | IDR | 10.50% | 4-Jul-26 | 101.25 | 100.25 | 9.75% | idA |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 27 Desember 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 30 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final DEC | 49.0 | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| 9:45 PM | US | Chicago PMI DEC | 40.2 | 42.8 | 43 |
| 10:00 PM | US | Pending Home Sales MoM NOV | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 10:00 PM | US | Pending Home Sales YoY NOV | 5.4% | 5.8% | |
| 10:30 PM | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index DEC | -2.7 | -0.4 | |
| Tuesday, 31 December 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI DEC | 50.3 | 50.3 | 50.5 |
| 8:30 AM | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI DEC | 50.0 | 50.2 | 50.4 |
| 9:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM OCT | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
| 9:00 PM | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY OCT | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| Wednesday, 01 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change DEC/27 | -3.2M ® | ||
| Thursday, 02 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Manufacturing PMI DEC | 51.5 | 51.7 | 51.8 |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Inflation Rate YoY DEC | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM DEC | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY DEC | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% |
| 3:55 PM | DE | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final DEC | 43.0 | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| 4:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final DEC | 48.0 | 47.3 | 47.3 |
| 7:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate DEC/27 | 6.75% | ||
| 8:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims DEC/28 | 219K | 223K | |
| 9:45 PM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final DEC | 49.7 | 48.3 | 48.3 |
| 11:00 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change DEC/27 | |||
| 11:00 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change DEC/27 | |||
| Friday, 03 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 3:55 PM | DE | Unemployment Change DEC | 7K | 15K | 10.0K |
| 3:55 PM | DE | Unemployed Persons DEC | 2.86M | 2.87M | |
| 3:55 PM | DE | Unemployment Rate DEC | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 4:30 PM | GB | BoE Consumer Credit NOV | £1.098B | £1.20B | £1.1B |
| 4:30 PM | GB | Mortgage Approvals NOV | 68.303K | 68.5K | 68.7K |
| 4:30 PM | GB | Mortgage Lending NOV | £3.44B | £3.5B | |
| 10:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI DEC | 48.4 | 48.3 | 48.5 |
| 10:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment DEC | 48.1 | 48.6 | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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